I hope that free open weight models prosper and get spread far and wide. I've started actively talking to people I know who pay for Anthropic subscriptions to make sure they know they're funding a company that actively attacks open weights and sees free models as a danger to society.
To be fair, both local and cloud models are a boon and danger simultaneously to society.
if llm agents can code most current software for significantly cheaper than tradisional software development and open llms can replace a good chunk of that work alot of software moats of today disappear or at least have significant pressure on margins putting alot of the pressure on the "value" propping up the stock market. good for society bad for 401ks.
I guess I don't understand the business model of "open weights". Who pays for the training? Who pays for the datasets? Who pays for the reinforcement?<p>People used to say that if you aren't paying for the product then you <i>are</i> the product. How do we think open weights will be different?
Maybe we should treat it like Wikipedia? A collective project of humanity?
Unironically: I think it would be great if there were open-source datasets that we all collaborated on. But, in my opinion, open source would mean the commercial models could use them, too.<p>The hard part about a wikipedia model, overall: it costs hundreds(?) of millions of dollars in compute to train these things. Will we be able to get enough donations to afford that?
> The hard part about a wikipedia model, overall: it costs hundreds(?) of millions of dollars in compute to train these things.<p><a href="https://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/Wikimedia_Foundation_Annual_Plan/2025-2026/Budget_Overview" rel="nofollow">https://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/Wikimedia_Foundation_Annual_...</a><p>Annual Budget: $207.5M
You are right that any closed or open source model that isn't run locally or by a company you reallly trust, is going to be storing an monetizing your prompts. An interesting take I heard was how LLMs will change discovery in cases going forward because people are sending so much of what they are thinking to be recorded by OpenAI or Anthropic.
Who pays for Linux development?
Most developers are paid for by large ompanies selling linux commercially, either directly (like redhat, canonical etc) or as services (google, microsoft, amazon)
Who paid for the LHC?
Anthropic sells the most intelligent intelligence, and they have secured enough compute to build even smarter intelligence. There is the possibility of a chain reaction (AI trains better AI which trains better AI) that ANT leads. This valuation is justified simply by Claude being marginally smarter than its competitors and enterprise customers paying for this advantage.<p>This is the ANT bet:<p>1. With current technology, using more computer resources will result in a measurably smarter model.<p>2. ANT will have more compute resources than anyone else for the next 5 years.<p>3. The intelligence gap provides meaningful competitive advantage.<p>4. The regulatory, monetary, or military environments don’t stop ANT from doing its work.
> enterprise customers paying for this advantage<p>If better would always mean "economically expedient", we all would fly on hypersound commercial jets.<p>If $2 model in the hands of good engineer can do the same as $20 model, anthropic will be soon killed by self-hosted open-weight models.
Fill your boots. I'll buy some when it totally tanks. :)
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This looks like a "winner takes all" valuation, but I can't for the life of me see the "winner takes all" scenario. I see strong commercial competition + competitive free models. Am I blind?
Not the worst thing in the world. If they IPO'd five months ago at $1.8T and dropped to $1.3 by EOY, they would lose trust of institutional and retail investors.
Seems as if major investors saw this coming already, so not that surprising if you have been paying attention.<p>> Major Investors Are Skeptical Anthropic IPO Can Achieve $1.5T Valuation (<a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50386597">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50386597</a>)
I just don't see how they don't get that valuation.<p>Not because it's sensible (it isn't), but because of how much hype is behind it, which is all that matters nowadays.
Good for them. A bit lower than initially estimated, yet still quite north to what they bring to the table today. Is there a market consensus on what their current and future moats are? Models alone will not do it. Ecosystem is can be rivaled ("opus make clone of claude.ai"). What else?
Rough timing for them with everything dropping and everyone spooked
Is this value finally locked in? Can they still change it?
> Anthropic will seek a valuation of around $1.33 trillion in its initial public offering [...]<p>That still feels wildly overvalued. SpaceX went public at a $1.77 trillion valuation, and its P/E ratio is already a whopping 617.7. Anthropic doesn't even own data centers, rockets, a social media platform, or a profitable internet service.
Good use of price anchoring.
spaceX doesnt have P/E since they dont make profit and are not going to for a very long time.
How does that compare to a swag of Anthropic’s P/E?
It is wildly over valued
> Anthropic doesn't even own data centers, rockets, a social media platform, or a profitable internet service.<p>On the flip side, their valuation isn't mostly based on one person who could leave or go (more) insane at any time.
1.3T for what?<p>What assets do they have? A bunch of models that at best are 3 months before the competition? They barely own any hardware, everything they use is rented at a very high price.<p>Know how? Dont make me laugh. Google and deepseek are doing all innovations. When was the last time Anthropic published a cool idea?<p>Infrastructure? They dont own any, and since their training and inference is notoriously inefficient they are bleeding money to data center providers.<p>Customers? Their customer list is shrinking by the day. Companies are reducing their token budget. Some completely moving to on-prem.<p>Exactly what here is worth this much money??<p>I personally will pull out of any index fund that includes openai and anthropic. Let someone else loose their savings.
CNBC version: <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/10/anthropic-sets-price-range-of-70-to-78-in-upcoming-ipo.html" rel="nofollow">https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/10/anthropic-sets-price-range-o...</a> (no paywall)
Do they have to threaten the us economy every week by forcing citizens to be exit liquidity for their investors? It's not cute. People are getting sick of it.
Paywalled
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I offer $3.50. Take it or leave it.
lol. Lmao, even.