> The filing directly discloses for the first time that Anthropic has agreed $895.4bn in purchase commitments and lease agreements for computing power and infrastructure, of which $447.5bn is expected to be incurred before the end of 2030.<p>So $448 billion committed, with unclear cancellation terms, through the next ~48 months.<p>Clearly this will be rising over time, but even a naive division results in $10bn per month of compute spending.<p>That honestly doesn't seem so bad relative to some of the claims I've seen? Their Q3 revenue is about $5.6bn per month and it's rising. They have so much money in the bank waiting to be deployed that they get a billion dollars of interest per year. Investors are desperate to put more money into the company.<p>They spend a lot on compute, but rolling it up into cumulative spend numbers makes it sound scarier.
$900b contract spending / $30b = 30 years of revenue.<p>That’s wild. They have committed to absolutely insane growth with no margin for error.
And half of it will happen by the end of 2030. I don't know finance well enough to conjecture that these purchases and lease agreements via equity, but maybe that's their plan to reduce the hit. Or, if they will trade tokens for goods and services as part of these agreements. No clue if that is something they could do.<p>It just seems like, given what we know about how things have worked so far in the AI space, that paying for the entirety of these agreements is not likely.
And also, because no one seems to see it, negative profit for the foreseeable future whilst competitors have locked in "good enough" and a fraction of the price.
their this year projection at a minimum is above 60B? and its not going to be the same every year.. so not sure how 30 years of revenue is your estimate.
Hey they're just like me and my mortgage! And I consider myself very high AAA investment grade.
Zero percent chance they can grow fast enough to meet their financial obligations without taking on some extremely expensive debt that will increase and compound their losses.<p>At this point I think the goal is:<p>Step 1: Go public<p>Step 2: Allow exit for early investors<p>Step 3: file bankruptcy<p>Step 4: Amazon or Google “rescues” the company at pennies on the already heavily diluted valuation
The commitments are over 19 years, but they expect to spend half of that, $447.5bn, by the end of 2030 - so about $105bn per year for the first few years.<p>Their 2026 revenue looks like it will be ~$67bn so clearly they're anticipating continued significant revenue growth for this to make sense.
If you are going bankrupt, you may as well go bankrupt spectacularly.
Or if you know a bailout is coming, might as well go full steam ahead
The George Costanza approach to bankrupting a business.
So basically it works out if they become a Microsoft level company
How much to power those data centers? It's kind of meaningless if you can't power them.
Pretty insane that sama's $7T target in 2024 wasn't that far off... <a href="https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/sam-altman-seeks-trillions-of-dollars-to-reshape-business-of-chips-and-ai-89ab3db0" rel="nofollow">https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/sam-altman-seeks-trillions-of-do...</a>
They will have to be bailed out. If they go public, leaders will take their money and run and everyone else will be buying up their parts.
If they slowdown just a bit more (and growth just slowed) they’re bankrupt.<p>If they grow like no startup in history they just eek by and manage to barely pay their bills. Impressive, but not worth anything close to $1T plus valuation.<p>If they achieve AGI money becomes worthless.<p>So where’s the upside for investors here?
Discussion: <a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50337439">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50337439</a>
I'd also like to reveal a Chapter 11 restructuring of Anthropic in 2029 to cancel these contracts.<p>I mean, I can't reveal that because I'm just some schmuck. But I'd like to.
ohh boy, guess who's gonna pay for all of this ? Retail investors of course. VCs want to get out quickly hence the crazy valuation, institutionnal investors are already heavily positionned on this through energy, semiconductors and cloud actors ..
I dont want to be a bag holder, but the indices seem to be being gamed to get retail investors involved
i'm pretty sure the plan is for labor to pay for it, by giving up their pay, involuntarily.
makes me wonder if these retail investors are noticing how everyone keeps mentioning them about holding the bag
I'm gonna be straight here: wahahahahah.<p>$900B ???? With a UI that's basically made to either make or keep people retarded? A company that reads like it was written by some off-the-shelve-low-effort pre-patch-Hi-I'm-Devon in Silicon?<p>What the fuck is wrong with people on the Roadblock-Street? Are you that fucking retarded? It's 20 fucking 27 ... An LLM that can USEANDNOMORE github and READANDNOMORE data bases??? HOOOOOLY FUCKING SHIT CORONA MUST have hit your billionaire brains hard, man ... fuuuuuuck
Anyone have a non paywall link?
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