From 2018, "Sadly, Fiscal Restraint Is No Longer a Core Principle of the GOP":<p>* <a href="https://www.cato.org/commentary/sadly-fiscal-restraint-no-longer-core-principle-gop" rel="nofollow">https://www.cato.org/commentary/sadly-fiscal-restraint-no-lo...</a><p>When you've lost the Cato Institute…<p>More recently in 2025, "The petrodollar, not GOP fiscal restraint, is what sustains our unsustainable debt":<p>* <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/5465671-republican-fiscal-responsibility-illusion/" rel="nofollow">https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/5465671-republican-fisca...</a><p>(Not that I believe the folks at the top at the GOP <i>really</i> cared about it.)
<p><pre><code> Democrats Change In Deficit
----------- --------
Joe Biden -$999B
Barack Obama -$747B
Bill Clinton -$383B
Jimmy Carter +$25.3B
Republicans Change In Deficit
----------- --------
Donald Trump +$2.108T
George W. Bush +$1.541T
George H. W. Bush +$102B
Ronald Reagan +$73.7B
Gerald Ford +$47.5B
Richard Nixon +$9.4B
Dwight Eisenhower -$3.2B</code></pre>
It would be nice to see change in debt numbers vs change in deficit numbers. I think only Clinton ran a surplus in the last 30 years.
You need to adjust for inflation.<p>Also the correct measure is % of GDP
Yeah but it makes the flip into and out of surplus in the Clinton years messy. I made the choice to cut out the %. The absolute numbers are sufficient to get the point across, and anyone who is actually interested in methodology (as opposed to politicking) will want to sweat more details than just referencing to GDP (e.g. cutoff points).
[delayed]
You need to cite your sources and not just copy-paste an ascii table from ChatGPT
Former Republican here aka Rino. It’s easily explained; the GOP ceased to exist when they all fell in line with Trump first term. Trump threatened to to form his own party with his massive following and make the GOP the third choice on the ballot. Trumpism is not conservative in any sense; it’s jingoistic nationalism to benefit Trumps interest.
Financial markets work in strange ways.<p>The markets generally respond to US concerns by buying more US treasuries. That’s counter-intuitive but reflects the situation that if things hit the fan they feel loaning the US money is still the safest place for their money.<p>For better or worse there’s unlikely to be a scenario where the US becomes insolvent but it’s not far worse for those outside the US.
May sound very similar but it's more like if everything is going down, the strongest one is going to go down last. It's not really "unlikely to be a scenario where the US becomes insolvent" — it's that if it happens, it happens last. And a lot of that just has to be because the US "owns" the dollar, and the world ended up picking (let's not get into how) the dollar as the reference point for their own currencies; aka everyone's reserve currency.<p>So no matter how much the US fucks up, they just print more and more dollars and ensure the entire world collectively pays up for their fuck-ups. But if the US doesn't fuck up and does something good, then the benefits of that? Oh, that's a different story. No excessive benefit printing, no sir.<p>All hail exorbitant privilege.
The US will become insolvent by trying to prop up Japan.<p>"The Insane US-Japan Currency Bailout" - <a href="https://youtu.be/yh18YXKMk3g" rel="nofollow">https://youtu.be/yh18YXKMk3g</a><p>Why does the US need to prop Japan? Because they are the biggest holder of US treasuries ...and if they need to prop up their own currency, they will need to sell them.
<Insert Pearl Harbor reference...>
Yes, and...<p>The US sold Euros to do the propping of Japanese bonds without telling the EU. Not only did we spend a lot to save our biggest sovereign buyer, but we undermined our relationship with another. And we didn't buy the Japanese much time.<p>Worth mentioning that lots of buyers is jumping into Chinese bonds over the past week.<p>It feels like the BRICS are taking over as of this month.
>The markets generally respond to US concerns by buying more US treasuries. That’s counter-intuitive but reflects the situation that if things hit the fan they feel loaning the US money is still the safest place for their money.<p>I thought that dynamic broke down with the liberation day tariffs, where both stocks and bonds dropped at the same time?
<a href="https://archive.is/L8RM7" rel="nofollow">https://archive.is/L8RM7</a>
What happens if US becomes insolvent? Is USD going to be inflated? hyperinflated? Will other currencies appreciate or just devalue their own currency by the same percentage to keep up the exports and continue to earn USD for oil?
Nobody knows. There is no precedent for that happening in a post globalisation world.<p>Think sht would get very real for everyone fast both inside and outside the US.<p>Global economy can’t even deal with a ship stuck in the suez without wobbling…
If the US becomes insolvent, that would severely impact the USD. But other currencies will not try to follow the USD, there would be no point in that. The USD would just lose more status as an anchoring point. The US is also not a major oil exporter, so presumably most oil will trade for other currencies, rather than try to sell for an inflationary currency.<p>In short, if the US becomes insolvent, the rest of the world will largely ignore what happens in the (at that point) 8th economy in the world, and mostly try to untie their economy from it.
> The US is also not a major oil exporter<p>I believe this is wrong? USA is the largest oil producer in the world, and also one of the 5 largest oil exporters.
> and mostly try to untie their economy from it.<p>That is already happening.<p>The rest of the world is finding the likes of China to be more stable and predictable trading partners than the USA.
There is no way, unless by political choice, for the US to become insolvent, meaning, not paying it's "debt" in US dollars
There is no way (except for the way I just articulated)...
There is a deliberate effort by the current administration to weaken the dollar.<p>Given their track record and interest in other forms of currency, I could see them going too far.
America will move to Trump Coin of course!<p>/s
No one serious is worried about American solvency. The paper says 50% over the next 10 years, but even most economists misunderstand how the monetary system works.<p>There are so many other issues to worry about at the moment more immediate than solvency.
The word in the headline “solvency” versus the phrase in the article “debt crisis” is a major difference.<p>To your point, I don’t think anyone has to be worried about American solvency, but a looming debt crisis doesn’t seem like a stretch of imagination at all.
Tell that to the Romans.
>> There are so many other issues to worry about at the moment more immediate than solvency.<p>The U.S. government spends about one-third! (roughly 33% to 39%) of individual income tax revenue strictly to pay the interest on the national debt and that is not even paying off the principal balance itself:<p><a href="https://budget.house.gov/imo/media/doc/cbo_baseline_february_2026.pdf" rel="nofollow">https://budget.house.gov/imo/media/doc/cbo_baseline_february...</a><p>A raise in interest rates for treasuries, can bring this into 50% to 60% within days.<p>Yeah...worry about other things...
> but even most economists misunderstand how the monetary system works.<p>It seems to be more of a subjective topic to me. Otherwise we would all have a perfect plan and never any monetary concerns. Highlighting weak links in the system is I believe a perfectly healthy thing to do. A sanity check would go a long way these days.
The US ticked all the boxes that are credited with the break up of the USSR last year aiui.<p>Anyone not taking that seriously is in for the most hilarious of surprises.
When enough non-"serious" people believe it, they still sell the bonds, and shit can hit the fan pretty quickly.
US government solvency is backed by the power to tax and tap into the massive US economy.<p>Considering the US has one of the lower overall tax rates of developed economies, I’m not sure we’ve reached any sort of crisis level