I am worried about the long term impact of research involving human conception, IVF, etc.<p>The reason is that genetics/evolution don't yet seem to fully explain how humans exist. A computer genetic algorithm run for a billion generations doesn't lead to anything anywhere near the the complexity of a human.<p>I suspect there are as-yet undiscovered effects which shape the next generation. Whether that be DNA methylation, gut bacteria passing from mother to child, selection of the 'correct' egg or sperm out of millions, or something new and un-discovered etc.<p>And if those effects are bypassed with artificial conception, we might end up with humans which aren't as strong, aren't as smart, aren't as well adapted to a changing environment, etc.<p>The effect will be small for each generation, but after 5-10 generations of a combination of artificial and natural conception you could end up with meaningful loss of fitness - or perhaps a lack of gain of fitness that would have otherwise occurred.
25% of humans died before reaching 5 in 1800s US, today it is <1%. Its been at least 5 generations since this value dropped dramatically.<p>We have not ended up with "humans which aren't as strong, aren't as smart, aren't as well adapted to a changing environment, etc."
> We have not ended up with "humans which aren't as strong, aren't as smart, aren't as well adapted to a changing environment, etc."<p>Haven't we?
Probably throwing quite the grenade here, but around 29% of pregnancies end in termination globally. Absent cultural considerations, it's questionable whether life expectancy has improved in absolute terms in modern times
How would you know?
We haven't created humans from scratch using genetic engineering yet, why would you think our current state has anything to do with the comment you are replying to?
I like the spirit of what you are saying but the smart part isn’t true at all. IQ peaked around the mid 1990s and as someone that lived back then that tracks.<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160289625000121" rel="nofollow">https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016028962...</a><p>Look at Fig. 3. The world seems to be experiencing a reverse Flynn effect.
The abstract quite literary cautions <i>against</i> the way you're interpreting the data. The relevant quote:<p>> Notably, these gains do not uniformly translate to a rise in underlying GMA, suggesting the presence of domain-specific improvements and test characteristic changes over time. Conversely, the observed decline is primarily due to decreases in word comprehension and numerical reasoning tests, also reflecting specific abilities not attributable to changes in the latent GMA factor. Our findings further challenge the validity of claims that changes in the general factor drive the Flynn effect and its reversal. Furthermore, they caution against using these scores for longitudinal studies without accounting for changes in test characteristics.
IQ is not a unit, it's a z-score. Z-scores can only be compared within the same cohort against which they are computed and given the same test. Given that the cohorts and tests keep evolving over time, it makes no sense to track IQ across large time periods.
The reversal of the Flynn effect is more likely explained by other factors such as the explosion of social media, endless addictive entertainment, and all the attention manipulation that comes with it. Conception didn’t change that much at a large enough scale during this short time period to explain it.
I'm far more worried about the long term impact of letting evolution exert its pressure on humankind unchecked.
You’re layering
several hypotheticals on top of each other, which leads to progressively distant possibilities. Good on you for caring about humans though
I think this is decisively the wrong way to think about it. Yes, layering hypotheticals like that means that any one scenario is extremely unlikely to be the thing that gets you, but that doesn't mean the shape of the problem is wrong.<p>It's like arguing with someone who doesn't believe in using seat belts when driving. "Why should I put them on?" they say, and when you try to explain what might go wrong they won't listen to any explanation that isn't a hyper-concrete hypothetical. So finally you give in and say, "Well, when we get onto the highway, a truck might lose control and hit us", and their response is "I don't think that's very likely, it seems highly improbable that today we will be hit by a truck when getting on the highway".<p>I agree with OP that this seems like the kind of thing where the unknown unknowns are so great that the correct approach is serious caution, and that any demand to know exactly how or why it will go wrong, falls in the trap where every specific example is very unlikely to be the thing that goes wrong, but still in total there's like an 80% chance that it goes horribly wrong. I don't know if we have the terminology to talk about this kind of failure mode. "You shouldn't play God" maybe? At least you shouldn't ask for specific examples of how things could go wrong, if you're going to turn around and claim each one highly improbable.
"I don't know if we have the terminology to talk about this kind of failure mode."<p>We actually have and is called RISK.<p>RISK = Probability * Damage.<p>Applied to the seatbelt event we have a death level damage and a high probability of happening given recent studies, so using a simple belt could easily save you from deadly accidents.<p>Applied to any unrealistic scenario we have insane level damages but also an incredibly low probability (near 0) so RISK = ~0%
Well that's the point about unknown unknowns though, we actually have no idea what the probability is. But we do know it's not low, that's the only unlikely scenario.<p>We only know it's a very complicated system with many interlocking dependencies, and based on what we know about complicated systems in general, as well as biology in particular, is that if any one of these unknown dependencies break, the whole system can fail catastrophically.<p>Therefore the probability that <i>something</i> will go wrong is very high, and the damage could easily be irreparable damage to the species, if not extinction. Does that not give an intolerably high risk?
This framework would be hard to apply to unknown unknowns. That's why in software engineering you'd apply canarying. Then the longer timeframe for potential negative effects, the slower the adoption of a new process should be.
"To play God" isn't just to do something spectacular which wasn't possible before. It's to <i>use</i> other people - to put yourself on a higher teleological level than other people, declaring their purpose (whatever it is) as fully subordinate to <i>your</i> purpose (whatever it is).<p>As if they were a tool you created. Obviously, if I carve a piece of wood into a spoon, it's <i>I</i> who get to say that what used to be a piece of wood now has a purpose of moving soup to mouths. The carved piece of wood now has a purpose, but it's wholly subordinate to <i>my</i> purpose (whatever it is).<p>You don't have to actually design people to play God - you can subordinate others to your purpose without doing that, that's what various God-kings in history did. But it certainly gives you a head start if you make them.<p>You can make something and <i>don't</i> subordinate it to your purpose. In our culture, we see children that way. We claim, basically, that we didn't <i>deliberately</i> design a child, we only obeyed our own natures without really having much choice in the matter, and thus we and our child is on the same teleological level.<p>This is not a cultural universal. In many cultures, parents (in particular fathers) would say basically "I made you, so you must do as I please, you have no reason for existing except for my purposes". It was a hard won battle for our culture to assert that children matter for their own sake and not just for their parent's.<p>Many things in this thread makes me want to say "Y'all MFs need Jesus". I won't say that, but I will say that you should stop and think about why it is that the Catholic church is so difficult about contraception, why Christians in general have historically made such a big deal of the difference "born of God" vs "Created by God" (arianism, etc.), and what that story of Abraham and Isaac was really about. Whether you agree or not, there's much about other people you will never understand if you don't think about teleological levels.
Thanks, that's an interesting analysis. I'm not a Christian, but I definitely get the sense that we're playing with an extreme danger here, and that we're not being sufficiently humble / cautious / in awe of the sacred -- and that such hubris might literally lead to human extinction, or close to it.
But many of the listed hypotheticals are not dependent (on top) on others, and since there are multiple that actually increases probability of an undesirable outcome.
But it reads to me like the thread parent's point is that there are many unknown risks which can exist? I also wonder about long term effects to the health of the genome from IVF and other forms of fertility treatment as infertility could be acting as some sort of protection mechanism of the genome. But I suppose such objections form a continuum which extends to treatment of all genetic diseases or diseases in general--all of which probably applies some evolutionary pressure towards more healthy individuals but which we as a society have to balance against wellbeing of individuals and their human rights.
This seems distantly impossible right now, but for this reason, I predict that any species that survives this kind of "great filter" effect of accidentally messing up their genome long term, will develop a strong taboo against fertility treatments and treatment of genetic diseases.<p>Like it seems horrible not to help the individual, when we have the technology to; but it's also horrible to hurt your species by selfishly propagating faulty genes. And this seems like the kind of problem cultural taboos are good at solving, and I don't really see any other mechanism by which a species can avoid this filter trap.
There is precedent for infertility being beneficial for a species in the animal kingdom. For example the vast majority of ants and bees are infertile. Yet the infertile ones still contribute meaningfully to society.<p>Humans could easily be successful with a similar model, and did so in the past before fertility treatments.
Well, <i>something</i> could be successful, in the biological survival sense anyway. Not sure it'd be right to call it human at that point.
That's happening now, more or less, across the entire developed world. Not sure about the "successful" part though.
If I understand your point correct it could work as easily as communism: theoretically sound but undermined by human psychology. Natural evolution is slow and gives the species time to adapt to anything. Artificial evolution by comparison is very fast. But the real issue is that humans have intelligence, individuality, and egotism. We don’t see ourselves as just part of a collective.<p>Societies functioned in the past while taking away some rights from its citizens (like ownership) but nothing as fundamental as only a few able to reproduce.
I think it’s important to remember that the process of selection acts directly on human traits. For example being exposed to high summer heat temperatures may eliminate some people who have unproductive sweat glands, or needing to run down your food may eliminate people who have a muscles that easily tire. Selection (largely) does not act on far removed traits like egg cell characteristics as a proxy of human traits like muscle performance because the genes that are used by egg cells are quite different than those used by muscle cells. So if you worry about some kind of human trait decline you should be much more worried that people have access to air conditioning and grocery stores.
As I understand it, that they've gone back to the point of making the ovary and the egg itself is going through Meiosis helps here, because it's got the randomness of picking genes between the pair of chromosomes in the source. So it's not just a clone; it's a little more natural than if they tried to produce the egg directly.
> humans which aren't as strong, aren't as smart, aren't as well adapted to a changing environment, etc.<p>But can they pay and vote? If yes, that is good enough for the people calling the shots.
Several of your claims are unsubstantiated. Sure, species co-evolve together, environment shapes evolution.<p>But why do you think evolution doesn’t explain existence of humans? What’s missing?<p>Also, as someone else has replied to you, we’re way past “natural” existence of humans. The vast majority of 8+ billions wouldn’t have survived in the past.
> A computer genetic algorithm run for a billion generations doesn't lead to anything anywhere near the the complexity of a human.<p>What?... Our computers can't simulate anything similar to a real world. You're comparing apples to galaxies.<p>> meaningful loss of fitness<p>What makes you think we don't have "loss of fitness" already?<p>150 years ago child mortality was around 30% in the developed world, now it's less than 1%. A lot of kids with weak health survive now. I'm one of them - I got pneumonia when I was ~2 y.o. and probably would have died without antibiotics. Then I had something which required antibiotic treatment pretty much every year. My wife also had a pneumonia in early childhood. And so did my daughter...<p>Why do we need to talk about some mysterious problem in 10 generations when modern medicine removes a lot of fitness pressure by itself?
It's a very common misconception that "survival of the fittest" means something related to physical fitness or stamina. It does not, in fact it's almost tautological. It means only "survival of those most likely to survive."<p>Natural selection is still fully in operation, but the things being selected for may have changed. Whatever they are now, they are still being selected for. Those most likely to reproduce are those whose who reproduce the most, and whatever those characteristics are, they will be the ones that become more prevalent.<p>It's also very important to remember that this operates over hundreds of millennia. Human beings changing substantially will not occur within a period of time less than that. You'd need to look back into deep prehistory to find changes to humans attributable to natural selection. Changes to modern humans are all explicable through changes to nutrition and lifestyle, not through evolution.
>I am worried about the long term impact of research involving human conception, IVF, etc.<p>You'd have a rather different opinion if you had to squeeze out a water melon out of your genitals.
Nobody HAS to do that. If people WANT to have children they should give them the best chances they can. If science proves IVF is the best, every parent must do it, if it's risk freedom has not been proved yet, no person that has other options available should do it. Chances are they would be ruining their children's life by expecting and comparing them to the best, so they can at least not give them handicap from birth. The world is now much more competetive and unfair to our children than it was in our time. My mother has told me countless times that childbirth is one of easier parts of motherhood.
Taking advice for raising children from the childless is like asking virgins for advice on sex.
Now that's a very high ratio of personal beliefs to character ratio. I'd be delighted to see some evidence behind your opinions.
What?
What? IVF doesn’t mean that the human is gestated in a glass tube like some 80s sci-fi, the pregnancy and birth still have to occur, carried out by a human.
Very interesting...maybe this is another great filter preventing a species from becoming multi planetary or expanding beyond a type 0 civilization?
> but after 5-10 generations of a combination of artificial and natural conception you could end up with meaningful loss of fitness<p>Yes, if we end up in some corner-case dystopia where evolution and natural selection continue to be in charge of fitness. But evolution and natural selection bring much suffering to the unlucky. In other words, if you go to a hospital, you'll quickly learn there's far more human suffering caused by God and Nature than by the "cruelty of man". Though common sense is never assured victory, I look forward to a world where our children live healthier and longer lives due to us properly messing with God and Nature.
<a href="https://www.smbc-wiki.com/index.php/Royalty" rel="nofollow">https://www.smbc-wiki.com/index.php/Royalty</a>
>The reason is that genetics/evolution don't yet seem to fully explain how humans exist. A computer genetic algorithm run for a billion generations doesn't lead to anything anywhere near the the complexity of a human.<p>I didn't have "creationism" as the top answer to a HN post in 2026, yet here we are...
Have you read the next paragraph?<p>> I suspect there are as-yet undiscovered effects which shape the next generation. Whether that be DNA methylation, gut bacteria passing from mother to child, selection of the 'correct' egg or sperm out of millions, or something new and un-discovered etc.<p>I can't see where it mentions "creationism".
How is that creationism? Saying that we don't have a good answer is not the same as suggestion one particular hypothesis.<p>To me suggesting that sounds pretty anti-intellectual!
Anti-intellectuallism is everywhere, especially amongst the intellectuals. The latest bent of this is to ask if an AI wrote this, rather than engage with the substance of what's written.
AI writing is anti-intellectual. It demands the time of thousands of people to read when they could be reading something with actual meaning. You're demanding scholars to read comic books all day in case they have content worth engaging with (spoiler: they don't).
> The latest bent of this is to ask if an AI wrote this, rather than engage with the substance of what's written.<p>Just an half hour ago, TomasBM wrote in another thread [1] why people first want to filter out AI slop, which IMHO fits perfectly:<p>> Getting those verbose, AI-authored walls of text is very annoying, especially when you're expected to thoroughly review it. It's like a denial-of-service attack on the human mind.<p>To that, I'd add my personal take: I go to HN, Bluesky, Reddit or Twitter to engage in meaningful conversation <i>with other people</i> (ranked in inverse likelihood of coming across sloppypasta). If I wanted to talk to a robot, I'd prompt ChatGPT myself. When others use AI for more than translation, this violates this core assumption of how human communication, how <i>society</i> has worked for all of human history.<p>Unfortunately, and I've been on the receiving end of this myself, anything longer or more substantive than a tweet will immediately evoke the "is this AI" assumption, and it's gotten worse as ChatGPT et al managed to eliminate the usual "tells".<p>[1] <a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48743798">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48743798</a>
That's a lot of words to act like a total tool towards people born from IVF and their parents.
There is nothing such as riskless technology, but you can't escape some risk anyway.<p>Tech like this gives some people a chance to be born. If they aren't born, this may damage the rest of the world in subtle, very hard to predict way. The invisible graveyard of medicine, caused by risk aversion, is real. In the name of safety, you may miss out on the next Freddie Mercury or David Attenborough, or Jonas Salk or Paul Erdös.<p>Also, the 5-10 generations you mention is 150-300 years in current humans. It is very unlikely that biological science will stagnate on current level of knowledge and blindly repeat beginner mistakes from 2026 for 150-300 years.<p>For comparison - 150 years ago, germ theory was still a contested newcomer. 300 years ago, medicine still believed in Galen's humor theory.
>The effect will be small for each generation, but after 5-10 generations of a combination of artificial and natural conception<p>How do you know it? Sci-fi tropes are not a good argument.