All: for comments on the technical side please go to the related thread:<p><i>Previewing GPT‑5.6 Sol: a next-generation model</i> - <a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48689028">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48689028</a>
This is regulatory capture in action. This will make it hard/impossible for new vendors to come into the market and only established companies will get to play, and charge, for LLMs. What does this mean for open source? Will it become illegal to download weights? What about train your own? Are we heading to a world where GPU use is regulated to ensure that illegal LLMs aren't being processed on your machine? More broadly though, how will this stop anyone but average people? Countries outside the us will completely ignore this and keep developing and moving ahead. Maybe Europe will adopt similar things but the genie is out. I can train insainly powerful models on my laptop. If you want to stop LLMs with legislation you can't do it like this.
As far as Europe is concerned they have recently signed up to the 'Pax Silica'[1] and willingly givrn the LLM space over to the US incumbents with buildtin legislation banning Chinese models and coperation with them.
So EU will be a renter of the LLMs that the US allows them to use.
In the long run OpenSource will dominate as it did in the DB(MySQL/Postgres)/ServerOS(Linux/BSDs) versus Proprietery rent seeking alts like Oracle and Microsoft et al.
Would be interesting to see what the global startups using Qwen/DS/Kimi etc within the EU-US space navigate the cutting edge OpenSource LLMs vs seeking/getting a permission slip from the US gov.<p>[1]<a href="https://archive.is/aiJiq" rel="nofollow">https://archive.is/aiJiq</a>
They have signed a non-binding agreement to potentially cooperate on AI supply chains. It's hardly a declaration of fealty, nor does it have any practical impact on the use of Chinese models in the near term. I'd view this more as hedging their bets for the future.
I hope that open models will dominate. The difficult part to reconcile for me is the amount of compute that's required to create and run such models. Small models are fine, I run local llms 27b param on a gpu, but it's not even close to frontier in capability. Who wants to drop $40k+ on hardware to run these things. Companies, maybe/perhapts. On the other hand, to run a DB I can get a server for $3k and handle tons of traffic on it and other things too.
I believe until the hardware designs catch up to be more commodized ala cryto mining evolution from GPUs to ASICS for specfic algos.
Designs (like Google TPUs equivalent) would also need to evolve to be more memory dense to be able to handle them.
Untill then it seems will be system time shares for the larger models , probably with a bring your own model and pay as you go.
> ala cryto mining evolution from GPUs to ASICS for specfic algos<p>I don't see it happening. A current gen GPU with a huge and fast block of memory isn't a perfect fit for these algorithms but it's relatively close. With cryptocurrency, mass small sha256 hashing was a totally different kind of computation.
> isn't a perfect fit for these algorithms but it's relatively close<p>I don't think that's true. The best fit out of what's presently available perhaps. Inference is almost entirely memory bandwidth bound at present, to the extent that GPUs with HBM have a massive advantage over those with GDDR. TPUs appear to be a much better overall design.<p>I expect that a hypothetical advance in fabrication enabling processing elements to be placed directly adjacent to dense RAM on the same silicon (not merely in the same package) would be superior in all regards.
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There might be a community effort at some point. This happened in chess where the community recreated and then improved on Alpha Zero. You could run small training chunks on your machine. Some people donated thousands of hours of server time.
Has anyone tried to run a data center as a Co-Op?
A data center or a cloud? It's not difficult to find a good data center to colo at. The problem is then you have to bring your own hardware, technicians, and sysadmins.<p>However, if you don't trust cloud providers or inference providers for whatever reason then you probably aren't going to be excited to enter a co-op model where you're still effectively renting access to hardware that you don't directly own. There are already reasonably priced options to rent bare metal from a cloud provider.<p>The only way I see it working is if it's a bunch of medium to large sized businesses getting together to be able to rent out the spare capacity on hardware that they physically control. So an AWS equivalent where each rack is owned by a different company and retail VMs migrate between them transparently. But I question the overall economics of such an arrangement.
I was thinking that would be great, too. What would be the equivalent for the property developer: one gpu server is 450k.
coopcloud.tech ?
Would actually be a good biz model for the Colo facilities that keep shutting down as everyone moves to the big cloud providers.Now if they can get their hands on enough GPUs and RAM.
europe2031.ai
This is beyond ridiculous.<p>At the same historical turning point when Europeans are finally waking up to the need to become less dependent on their so called US ally for weapons production and security, they are immediately choosing to become dependent on the next layer of critical infrastructure.<p>Instead of learning the obvious lesson, Europe seems ready to purchase the future from whoever Washington allows it to purchase from. It used to be the guns, now it's the AI.<p>It is so idiotic and short sighted that you can barely even blame anyone who keeps exploiting this over and over again. It is always the same story.
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This also completely screws over U.S. businesses. American startups will be forced to pay premium prices for nerfed, heavily-censored, 'compliant' models from a few massive corporations. Meanwhile, foreign startups will be running cheaper, unrestricted open-source AI. We'll price ourselves right out of the global market.<p>What government wants to have their population use foreign AI. (Not many). Only issue I see is good enough is what the majority might be okay with.
> I can train insainly powerful models on my laptop.<p>What's with this hallucination? The thread is about <i>GPT-5.6</i>. Your laptop can't even run gemma 4 unquantized bfloat16, which is light years behind GPT-5.6, and running it is light years from training it. If something that a laptop can train is <i>insanely powerful</i> for you, you don't need to worry about this thread at all.
Eh, they said models, which can mean hyperspecific domains, not necessarily a massive generalized LLM.
So far it's only US doing this. I don't think it's in anyone else's interest to limit development of open source models or chips. Nvidia has secured a leading position in GPU market by being the best overall, but if US continues to mess up with the export, that changes the calculation and surely we'll see the alternatives
Any country that developed sufficiently advanced models will pursue the same path. The EU as a regulatory body would pursue the same path, as will/is China.<p>It’s rather straightforward to think through. If China (they’re practically the only competitor) built a sufficiently advanced AI system would they allow it to propagate on the free market? Of course not. The fact of the matter is that they are behind, even if it’s just a little bit, so the best strategy they have is to try and compete with “good enough” models with lower/subsidized cost - but that is a losing strategy because AI is and always has been a winner-take-all strategy.<p>Likewise if, idk, France someone built an AI system that was valuable do you think they’d just hand it over for sworn enemy Donald J. Trump to utilized? Of course not.<p>The American strategy in the context of the current geopolitical landscape is the only valid one and the obvious one. If you find yourself criticizing the American strategy it’s because you aren’t in the arena where you would, inevitably, make the same decision to restrict access.
> Any country that developed sufficiently advanced models will pursue the same path.<p>Looking at most of the available evidence, Mythos is an incremental upgrade over other models and nowhere near the implied advancement that this seems to point to. I guess you could be right in that a sufficient advancement <i>would</i> cause this type of withholding of it, but I think it's kind of silly to think that the US has reached that level.
> AI is and always has been a winner-take-all strategy<p>People claim that AGI is. AI is turning out to be a fairly competitive but “normal” product. Companies carving out niches on cost, quality, and speed.<p>If it was a winner take all OpenAI’s head start would have been decisive. For years ChatGPT was far ahead of everyone, then Anthropic released Opus 3, then OpenAI released 4o, then in mid 2025 it seemed like everyone had strong reasoning models including Google with Gemini 2.5, and now Claude is probably the best coding model. So taking the top spot is not a guarantee you can hold it.<p>Also the top model becomes a prime target for distillation, making it easier for competitors to keep up.
I think you view this situation from the US point of view and assume that China has the same guiding principles and values in their foreign policy, for which it doesn't.
They might do what you said, of course.
But they very well might also treat LLMs as another goodwill investment like the Belt and Road Initiative (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belt_and_Road_Initiative" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belt_and_Road_Initiative</a>) and export the capability to partner countries, for example, in Africa, to strengthen relationships.
Belt and Road wasn’t goodwill.<p>A lot of it was financed through large (sometimes unsustainable) loans to recipient countries, sometimes leading to unsustainable debt burdens, irrespective of the potential ROI for the recipient (ie Sri Lanka’s port).<p>In many cases, much of that debt paid for Chinese companies, contractors, suppliers, and imported workers who built or operated the projects.<p>And the infrastructure didn’t necessarily line up with the recipient’s actual needs, mostly with China’s (ie the Laos–China railway, in large part financed by Laotian debt, which may someday bring some benefits to Laos, but mostly serves China’s regional trade ambitions).<p>Not to say other countries do it better or have purer ambitions or whatever. It’s just the "goodwill" part that made me twitch.
Can you argue that the principle of the BRI is humanitarian and it should benefit both partners, but not equally? Imho, that policy is far better for humanity than blockading Cuba, bombing Venezuela and Iran.<p>> A lot of it was financed through large (sometimes unsustainable) loans to recipient countries, sometimes leading to unsustainable debt burdens, irrespective of the potential ROI for the recipient (ie Sri Lanka’s port).<p>I see that you blame China for Sri Lanka, while China wasn't the only creditor there.<p>> And the infrastructure didn’t necessarily line up with the recipient’s actual needs<p>Easy to say in hindsight.
> Can you argue that the principle of the BRI is humanitarian<p>No. You can argue some projects, if done well, benefit both sides. That doesn’t make it humanitarian. It makes it basic foreign policy.<p>> China wasn’t the only creditor there.<p>I didn’t say it was. I said Hambantota was a costly development failure for Sri Lanka, and Chinese lending was part of that specific project and problem. Basically, that unlike your "goodwill" claim, China isn’t just giving away infrastructure for free out of the goodness of its government’s heart.<p>Don’t make me say what I did not.<p>> Easy to say in hindsight.<p>Yes. That’s why development and debt are <i>hard</i> problems. Also why calling it “goodwill” is, at best, too generous.<p>> Better than blockading Cuba / bombing Iran / etc.<p>“The US also does very bad stuff” doesn’t make BRI goodwill. Plus, there are more than two countries in the world. Some even try viable (if self-interested) development policy without bombing people.
Tales of an Economic Hitman was an instruction manual for the Belt and Road Initiative.
More likely the PRC sees the open-weight models' progress as a way to prevent an existing dominant player from cementing their (finicky) lead and pulling up the ladder.<p>That strategy <i>happens</i> to have beneficial side effects to the global Hoi Polloi, but to attach any kind of benevolence to it would be naive.
They have the same values. Domination it is. People are people. Really no difference between the US and China. None at all.
Well, you are wrong. Maybe you should visit and learn more about China to understand it.
For starters, China's society is high-individualistic with a strong sense of community and with high respect to their elders.
On the contrary, US's society is hyper-individualistic with a strong sense of family and basic respect to their elders.
This isn't how things typically work. For instance the US is increasingly adversarial towards China yet China continues to largely power the US economy both through manufacturing and market access, which makes up an increasingly large share of all revenue for many US companies. Why? Because that position as a dependency is not only directly economically beneficial to themselves, but also provides leverage which can be utilized in extreme circumstances.<p>This isn't really going to achieve much besides incentivizing the growth of non-US models and minimizing market access for US-based models. I was expecting the US government to try to ban foreign models, which is also a self-own but orders of magnitude less than this. All this will do is greatly diminish the influence of the US in the future, and minimize the benefits they might reap from a global LLM explosion. It'd be like if 30 years ago, China decided that their manufacturing could only be used by white-listed individuals. Their economy and influence wouldn't be even a fraction of what it is today.
> AI is and always has been a winner-take-all strategy<p>AGI sure. But I don't think we're going to get there in our lifetimes, if ever. There are too many structural and physical limitations. One everyone seems to be catching onto now is that they're running out of human data and are incestuously feeing AI output to itself as input.<p>Current state AI is barely an improvement over where it was fifty years ago. We just have stronger hardware and more content to train on. We need a new paradigm. One that hasn't come in half a century.
the only people its relevant for is the people in first. We wont know what any other state would do until someone passes the us, if that happens.<p>it sucks that we're in a place where the us has an dishonest leadership, because the current situation would be pretty reasonable if any other admin was in charge.<p>let models go free, until one proves dangerous in the real world then require gov approval after that.<p>I don't think anyone rational would have the position everyone should have insta access at the same time to the highest model once it crosses the point of enabling actual dangerous things.
> This will make it hard/impossible for new vendors to come into the market and only established companies will get to play, and charge, for LLMs.<p>I don't understand how you leap from "US govt. decides who gets to use GPT-5" to "limit new vendors from competing with OpenAI".<p>Can you walk me through the logic?
These frontier models are now good enough that they can assist heavily with new optimizations for future models, including, code them. Restricting their usage to a few companies takes away that advantage away from other companies, thereby, limiting new vendors from competing with OpenAI.
Do you have any sources for the claim that LLMs meaningfully help in the production of LLMs?
> Restricting their usage to a few companies takes away that advantage away from other companies, thereby, limiting new vendors from competing with OpenAI.<p>wait, are you saying a competitor needs access to an OpenAI model in order to build a competing model?
Nothing new in that. Everyone pays to someone or the other to make their own product/life better. Most of the times these products do not compete, sometimes, they do.<p>How many times you believe duckduckgo would have google'd stuff just to create a competitor to Google itself? I believe thousands of times.. could be more.<p>OpenAI cannot claim the code their models produce as their own since their own models used codes from public internet during training to produce new code.
I agree with your point, but to play devils advocate: doesn't a competitor arguably need access to these beyond-frontier models to even become an effective competitor to OpenAI and Anthropic?
> the U.S. government would initially approve who gets access to its latest new release while AI companies and the administration work out a longer-term plan for regulation on the sector.<p>So you're a new vendor with a GPT-5.6 or Mythos class model. How do you suppose the regulations are going to work? First you need to get on the list of companies that are allowed to release models, and then you need to have a whole system for limiting access. Both are going to be hugely expensive, on top of training new models already being insanely expensive to begin with.<p>Thus, it's not a legal limit, but a real practical limit because it's too expensive. If only OpenAI and Anthropic and Google can afford to jump through the hoops, they've effectively gotten to "limit new vendors from competing with OpenAI".
> So you're a new vendor with a GPT-5.6 or Mythos class model. How do you suppose the regulations are going to work? First you need to get on the list of companies that are allowed to release models, and then you need to have a whole system for limiting access. Both are going to be hugely expensive, on top of training new models already being insanely expensive to begin with.<p>So your thesis is that someone has the resources to create a model at the level of Mythos or GPT 5.6 but bot have the resources to jump through the concomitant legal requirements?<p>Surely that’s unlikely?
>This is regulatory capture in action.<p>Isnt this all export control based? If so its not regulatory capture for a few reasons. If not disregard this.<p>1) new entrants wont get export controlled because they arent leading edge<p>2) a new company could just implement KYC. It could even be a competitive advantage (Anthropic wont or cant)
> Only companies approved by the government will get access. There is no process for individual users to get access to the new model.<p>That sounds like more than just export control.<p>This means that big company A that the president has a business interest in could get access to the most powerful AIs, while a startup competing with it doesn't.
This isn’t about keeping people from having the power of frontier LLMs. So tricks that let others have it aren’t a defeat of this policy.<p>This is export control, where the US government seeks to leverage the fact that these frontier models are US made. This is then leveraged against opponents, and likely also just for grift. There’s also perhaps a little legitimate worry about the implications of free access to, but that is secondary to the real goal.
> I can train insainly powerful models on my laptop.<p>This is such hyperbole. You might be able to train a model that's merely <i>useful</i> in a single domain, but to say you can train an 'insanely powerful' model on consumer hardware is laughable.
Warm up your VPN to zAI for the eventual banned GLM-6 I guess
What? This is the opposite of regulatory capture. Neither anthropic nor openai are getting to choose what happens with their models.
Regulatory capture doesn't necessarily mean the regulated get to decide what the regulators do in precise steps. It can simply mean they support and exist within a regulatory regime that greatly benefits the regulated.<p>In fact, you generally don't want them directly telling the regulators what to do. Instead, the regulators make complex, costly rules that only large establishment players can follow. The regulators look like they're doing their job; the regulated enjoy higher margins and protection from disruption.
How does this benefit the regulated? I'd say it <i>dooms</i> the regulated:<p>* with the government requiring the regulated to obtain approval to add each customer, they're losing a massive number of their customers<p>* and even if a customer gets approved, every such customer now sees that access to the regulated can (and has been) shutoff with no notice if the gov doesn’t like the provider or customer - it's now a massive supply chain risk for any customer to use a regulated provider<p>* the regulated losing a massive part of their customer base for both of the above reasons means significant impairment of their revenue, as well as their valuation, and staying ahead of their competitors and open models requires massive ongoing investment<p>Open models are mere months behind.
That's just vanilla regulation. Yes it tends to create market inefficiencies, by definition. Capture entails industry corrupting and directing regulatory bodies.
And the regulated may even publicly complain about the regulations, to increase the illusion that it isn't regulatory capture.
Exactly! The thing that squeezes out new entrants isn't only the compliance cost, it's that your whole roadmap ends up resting on access you don't control.<p>We already saw the terms moved under us once with Fable, the retention policy changed and some requests started routing to a weaker model, none of us small operators had any say in that. Now access itself is a government decisions.<p>For anyone building on top of these APIs that's the real barrier, not the rule-following overhead but the fact that the ground can shift mid-flight and you can't negotiate with whoever's moving it.<p>Which is exactly why open weights start looking less like ideology and more like risk management.
The other answers are also valid, but lest we not forget, Sam is openly a fascist supporter and is clearly in bed with the regime in that he funded 47's campaign and jumped in to rescue Hegseth's automated kill list with OpenAI's GPT when Anthropic refused. Furthermore they are likely operating on some kind of quid pro quo agreement even if it's not public knowledge, because that's how all this bribery stuff works. Bezos agreed to use his media empire including WaPo to spout MAGA propaganda, for example. It's trump's one and only MO so to assume it doesn't apply here would be insane.<p>So, while OpenAI may not in a legal/technical sense, be the benefactory, that is not required for the term to apply, AND they may as well be considered party to the creation of the regulation since they have openly lobbied for it, openly inserted themselves into the government apparatus both formally and informally, and likely are co-conspirators to whatever Trump's autocratic self-enrichment scheme is.
literally the opposite of regulatory capture - it spells trouble for specifically openai and anthropic mostly
That's often how regulatory capture works. It seems bad for the incumbents, but it's <i>worse</i> for any future competitor. As long as the cost of complying with the regulation is less than your expected loss from competition entering the market, then it's net positive for the incumbent.
How is this regulatory capture? Any new LLM company can just exist outside of the US and export to everyone.
> I can train insainly powerful models on my laptop<p>Can you?
>I can train insainly powerful models on my laptop<p>Explain. The labs have been spending about $100 million in compute to train a model.
> This is regulatory capture in action.<p>With the twist that it will end up involving payments that directly benefit Trump, following the Mafia business model that he learned in the construction industry and that he's brought to the White House.
Nick Bostrom wondered aloud in Superintelligence (2014) why states would allow individuals and private organizations to develop AGI. If one takes the possibility seriously, AGI would a source of immense power and any state would to take that opportunity for itself.<p>Edit: Not saying whether AGI is right around the corner, that's a different discussion. I'm just saying that a serious possibility of AGI and an understanding of possible consequences will make a state act.
Well states are made of individuals, and at least in the US we should be able to self determine via elections and public discourse..<p>If that's impossible in any meaningful way, then yes, doesn't matter which color jersey the government is wearing, it's authoritarian.
AGI is religion invented for the stupid. There's no world in which a silly LLM can make intelligent decisions. It's all smoke and mirrors to make insane amounts of money and to maintain the sheep agreeing with the powerful.
Buy Bitcoin.<p>look, i'm sorry, but this is a thoroughly solved problem by now.
GPUs and computer hardware prices have been on the rise. I can see a twisted perspective where it’s stated that the US government needs to closely control computer hardware that can run particular LLMs, as a national security interest. At least that idea isn’t completely wild now seeing what we have been experiencing.<p>Remember those weird conspiracies we used to have about universal surveillance; tracking and so forth? Well if you think back to those and whatever might happen with GPUs and hardware, and LLM restrictions or the likely age gating//ID’ing that is to come from this, that’s a good guiding framework for how this will proceed and affect normal people.
> Are we heading to a world where GPU use is regulated to ensure that illegal LLMs aren't being processed on your machine?<p>Actually that sounds pretty reasonable considering current regulations regarding almost any other important resource / material that affect the general population.
I hope this doesn't become the new norm where government becomes the bottleneck for innovation in the AI space.<p>It's worrying that with no formal and transparent policy framework that the government will be picking winners and losers and stifling innovation.<p>There's been no public policy, executive order, legislation, or otherwise on this, I wonder if anyone has filed FOIA requests for these decisions or the conversations between the Executive Branch and AI companies.
Indeed, I find quite ironic that some people in tech in the US complain about EU "regulations first" approach, but then their government seem to arbitrarily stop things from being released because, well, there is no established policy on safety guarantees or other similar aspects.
I see it too, but worth noting that this is basically unprecedented at least within the last 25 years; I think you have to go back to export controlled cryptography for another example of this kind of abrupt and targeted regulation.
We’ve seen more examples recently. TikTok, wireless routers, polestar cars…
Huawei, Foreign gambling sites were banned on dubious reasons in 2006 (in reality American companies weren't as competitive and las Vegas needed to be protected), Japanese electronic tariffs in the 80s/90s ...<p>US never exactly believe in full on 'free trade'.
The US believed in free trade precisely when the politically connected needed labor arbitrage, and protectionism exactly when the politically connected needed protection. The pretense of underlying ideals was never more than a political tool - political economy was always political.
It depends on whether you believe US action is overdetermined, but I think if Trump didn’t get elected we would have continued on the path of free trade. His election wasn’t predestined. He had just the right mix of features to win at the time, but if this basket of features didn’t exist it’s not hard to imagine the country going down a very different path.
If we had continued on the path of free trade without "dealing in" those displaced by free trade, the pressure would have continued to grow. It certainly could have exploded in a different direction, at a different time, with a different champion, but so long as it was repressed instead of addressed it was always destined to explode.
Another plausible future is AI reshuffling the economic hierarchy. In a technological civilization the pressure valve need not be political.<p>As an aside, you made me curious if Trump made this constituency materially better off. Here's what Claude thinks (tl;dr: it's a wash): <a href="https://claude.ai/share/36233694-3729-4758-b2e6-c2058791ab1a" rel="nofollow">https://claude.ai/share/36233694-3729-4758-b2e6-c2058791ab1a</a>
Explosions are rarely productive. Populists are notorious for delivering lots of chaos and few results.<p>It's easier for everyone to just deal in the economic losers, but we didn't do that, and now they are burning the house down. This will not get them what they want, but they will continue doing it anyway.<p>Globalization was the test, AI is the final exam.
Biden wasn't a free trader at all, more alike to Trump in trade than many would like to admit.
US never championed free trade if by free trade you mean "anything goes."<p>Really strange that rest of the world can tariff and put up barriers, but once the US does that, all free-trade warriors step out of the wood work.
> Japanese electronic tariffs in the 80s<p>Also motorcycles. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_motorcycle_tariff" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_motorcycle_tariff</a>
Taking that political scenario as an example. Was the decline caused simply because Harley kept to the same working formula refusing to innovate for competition? As to the likes of Honda and Co?<p>Manufacturing is cheaper if you have access to resources and such. Japan may of had abundant of but in this case I don't feel it's was all about manufacturing costs.<p>Was it a cash cow situation, where their one formula was working but as well as where Harley were reluctant to invest in a different avenue, to innovate causing cow to dry up.
And that is when they called in the government to settle? That is always the impression I seem to receive.<p>Excluding manufacturing costs was it because they were scared of an innovation being a failure?<p>The same cash cow formula can be seen with the likes of Disney Pixar and Toy Story 5, a pointless movie plot at this point where if money was invested, a new creation could be born.
A current account deficit is a capital account surplus, assets and exports compete in the balance of payments, an asset windfall kills exports by increasing the currency hurdle and embedded asset price.<p>What you are seeing is "the bar" for a successful manufacturing business increasing until only the most profitable are left -- things like chips, things like shell companies that exist to monetize a brand. "New growth" isn't highly profitable so it never has a chance to get started (unless a recipient of an asset windfall is willing to finance it all the way to "the bar" -- see: Elon Musk).
> A current account deficit is a capital account surplus,<p>That's true.<p>> assets and exports compete in the balance of payments, an asset windfall kills exports by increasing the currency hurdle and embedded asset price.<p>They don't really have to compete with each other. It depends on what the central bank does (or doesn't do) about the exchange rate, for example.
Ah. I get it now. A established economic model is provable and that in five years you can forecast that if you follow X guide you'll end up on top with Y.<p>If competition is on the scene then how can you assure me that myself taking the risk of investing will return me the sum I wish for in return.<p>Production has already been established but the threat is in that an another forecastable model exists and that to catch up to their market will require more investment and expenditure which could lead in less chance of a return. And even if the model is copyable; as like the trope of Chinese knockoffs to of Japanese products, you're still at a lower advantage.<p>It's not they don't want to innovate but the risk to gamble on innovation is high enough that you could stifle competition cheaper via governmental means.<p>This slows their forecast and where you can then strategise to overcome the competition rather than risking expenditure via innovation. Crafty, cheers.
It's worth tracing this through every level in order to get the causality correct.<p>Triffin's Dilemma says that in the case of the modern USA, assets will be pumped. Macroeconomics says asset pump = export dump.<p>The way that economics dumps exports is by raising the bar (strong currency = poor customers, expensive assets = expensive houses = expensive labor, costs go up, price goes down, profitability is squeezed). Eventually the bar became impossible to hop without a cheat code like "good brand and no R+D" or "software level profitability".<p>At the individual level, manufacturing pay went in the shitter as the jobs dried up while house prices and stock prices went through the roof... so everyone who could became real estate agents, or doctors overcharging real estate agents, or sellers of investment scams to venture capitalists.<p>What's wild is that this happened to the Spanish, the Dutch, the English, and by the 1960s Triffin could see that it would happen to the US as well.<p>If you want details from an economist who does his homework, "Trade Wars are Class Wars" by Klein and Pettis.
"Kicking Away the Ladder: Development Strategy in Historical Perspective by Ha-Joon Chang"<p>"How did the rich countries really become rich? In this provocative study, Ha-Joon Chang examines the great pressure on developing countries from the developed world to adopt certain 'good policies' and 'good institutions', seen today as necessary for economic development. His conclusions are compelling and disturbing: that developed countries are attempting to 'kick away the ladder' with which they have climbed to the top, thereby preventing developing countries from adopting policies and institutions that they themselves have used."<p><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Kicking-Away-Ladder-Development-Perspective/dp/1843310279" rel="nofollow">https://www.amazon.com/Kicking-Away-Ladder-Development-Persp...</a>
The entire US auto industry is predicated on protectionism. Without it the Japanese would have wiped out GM/Ford/Chrysler in the 1980s, and now the Chinese in the 2020s-2030s.
See the Chicken tax for trucks for a not so recent example <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicken_tax" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicken_tax</a>
I think that's a bit different. The crypto-wars were about restricting strong encryption IN GENERAL. Not targeting a specific vendor.<p>The equivalent would be to restrict all LLMs with a minimum number of weights.<p>That's probably as futile, but remember for how long the encryption ban proved to be a nuisance.
DJI, Huawei and the list goes on. Definitely no need to go back "25 years". The USG is turning into a joke of a surveillance state. As if any of the US based tech is truly any less backdoor'd? Cisco and Flock and Google and Facebook and Microsoft, oh what amazing technology companies that could never be used for... Oh wait, what a fantastic endgame we're on course for! I wonder why other nations are actively moving away from US tech?
TikTok ban was the worst one because it was about speech, not trade or security. If the bill said "China banned our social media so we're gonna ban theirs in reciprocity," that'd be a way more valid reason.
It's also super annoying being collateral damage in America's war on free speech. Canadian TikTok is now also being similarly moderated for content unfriendly of your administration. I guess we're still in a position of privilege where we can grow domestic social platforms to compete while American simply have no alternatives - anything that grows sufficiently large will be turned towards similar propaganda aims.
> Canadian TikTok is now also being similarly moderated for content unfriendly of your administration.<p>I feel like this has to do more with the consolidation you typically see international companies do with their North American operations than anything. More often than not do things have to go across the border for warranty repair. Even when a 'local' Canadian presence exists (like Asus has), they themselves generally act as a middleman between you and their 'parent' operation in the US. It would not be surprising to find out that TikTok US operates the Canadian version as well.
China didn't even blanket ban them. They established laws that Internet companies have to follow and most U.S. tech companies refused to comply. Some did (e.g. Bing) and aren't banned.
Instagram is just as worse.
All social media is a toxic, ad-driven, algo-fueled surveillance tool at this point. Just regulate it all, equally, into the ground if we want to do society a service.<p>The fact that China's version of TikTok is nothing like what's available in the US should showcase how much the USG gives zero F's about it's citizens regardless of the political party you lean towards.
Instagram is worse, but when you talk bad about Israel in Instagram they can delete it, it wasn't easily possible in TikTok
A real headscratcher isn't it? And from a government that is supposedly priding itself on small government. How should companies navigate this? What's the framework they should operate within?
Claiming the mantle of "small government" was simply an exercise in marketing to relax regulation meant to prevent bribery and corruption. In practice, the current slate of government officials believes in absolute control of whatever they want whenever they want.<p>It's a mirror case of the supposed "free speech absolutists" who immediately turned around and silenced, sued, fired or jailed once granted the power to do so.
Small governments don't deploy thousands of military troops into their own cities.
Not a headscratcher at all, if you understand how our economy and politics are actually run.
It's only small government when they are trying to not give money to some group they don't like.
I don't think Trump has ever said he's in favor of a small govt
It's almost like he expects bribes to release the model, but I'm just being paranoid.
The most important part of the mafia state is making everyone else a participant. It enforces your personal power and once in the system those parties will do things they would never imagine doing when they were outside of it.
It's also a defensive self-interest: A corrupt senior who takes bribes is indirectly threatened by any junior with a clean record, because they aren't "in the same boat."<p>So each wave corrupts (or eliminates) members of the next, in order to secure the safety of their own retirement when they won't have direct power.
Anthropic peace prize coming up next.
This whole administration is absolutely rampant with corruption. Just yesterday we had JD Vance on TV saying that if Watergate happened today, it would just be a 12 hour news story, because they are getting away with so much worse.<p>Anyone who denies or defends this administration's corruption is complicit.
"Anyone who denies or defends this administration's corruption is complicit."<p>I was told the same under the biden and word salad regime. The mass pardons with the autopen to the pardoning of his degenerate crack head son.
Same can be said about the previous
Munitions exporting. I fondly remember the PGP feasco. I spent years using PGP to encrypt my emails to several people who refused to use email without it. Good times.
release the weights! freedom of speech!
Whose speech? Nobody with the weights is trying to speak them.
Yeah, that's what we need, frontier intelligence models open in the wild that, if a jailbreak is reliably established, there's no possibility for anyone to ever patch at the API layer. Because there is no API layer.
"This stack of 15.3 million t-shirts is a munition."
Competent government wouldn't do this either...
...also why I think it won't last.<p>Doubtful it'd hold in court; this admin would have to show that it's not corruption, because we'd all assume otherwise.
Unprecedented? This is very much precedented and has been the end goal when you disallow regulations and public input when it comes to technology proliferation. When was the last time the public had an ability to direct technology in the US?<p>This is the result of private interests working authoritarian governments (hint, it rhymes with classism).
Between $5-10T of the US economy is subject to export controls. Nobody disputes that Mythos is dual-use technology, which means it has been export controlled since the day it was created.<p>Companies are responsible for demonstrating criteria to export (for example) a nerfed version (Fable) of an export controlled item (Mythos)<p>Nothing here is novel, unusual, capricious, or … fascisistic.
We saw what happened with banning nvidia flagship compute GPU exports to China; it just spurred them to develop a domestic semiconductor industry while still importing black market GPUs at a minor markup. The US would do well to keep the world dependent on American products that are under the jurisdiction of the US government, and can therefore be regulated or killswitched. All this will do is allow China to have flagship model capabilities without being subject to the US at all.
This arrangement is already dubiously legal. The government is already being sued over the Fable incident with Anthropic.<p>No amount of rules can stop people who are willing to break them. Only enforcement can.
Anthropic just needs to donate millions of dollars to a “MAGA Inc” like Greg Brockman did and they’ll get regulated properly from now on.<p>It’s a perfectly good system for government regulation.
In some cases, even just bringing a 24K gold desk ornament to the WH is enough; but I suspect these tributes to Dear Leader are subject to inflation, possibly exponentially so.
$100 Million to The Trump Foundation, and Anthropic get to become the US AI Regulator
It looks like Greg needs to make another deposit to the fuhrer
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Or perhaps threaten to donate $10b to the DNC
And enforcement cannot work if you’ve captured all three estates.
Did you mean this in the French Revolution sense (the clergy, the nobility, and the commoners) or in the American sense (the legislative, judicial, and executive branches)?<p>The French Revolution sense would be an ironic counterpoint, because the Revolutionaries <i>did</i> end up capturing all three estates, only to fall to someone (Napoleon) who captured the military, which wasn't considered one of the "three estates" because at the start of the French Revolution destroying civil society, enacting a military dictatorship, and starting a series of wars throughout Europe was considered outside the Overton Window.<p>This perhaps holds some lessons for America today.
Ironic is claiming that Napoleon destroyed civil society, when his reforms are in many ways the foundation for modern civil society. Rule of law, national public education, the concept of a national bank, formation of the middle class, and so on. To say that Napoleon destroyed civil soceity is just plain wrong, Napoleon founded modern civil society.<p>To be fair, he (the national assembly really) stole the whole "all men being equal" and all the ideas on accessible readable law thing from the Dutch after the Dutch "joined" the French Republic. It's also very likely that Napoleon would've turned out like any other despot if he had held power longer.
I think there is a layer of truth to the idea that MAGA captured what England would call the Fourth Estate, the News Media.<p>England is weird because its model looks like that French model, except that it intertwines the nobility and clergy. Basically an Archbishop and a Earl both sit in Parliament as Lords, while the Commoners control only the Commons of the Parliament. Now <i>today</i> the Commons runs things, but that's relatively modern, in the 19th Century it was completely normal for the Prime Minister to be a Lord, and while some of them were only <i>technically</i> Lords, having in fact been elected but just also nobility anyway for one reason or another, or being ennobled while serving as PM because nobody thought that was a bad idea - others were never elected at all.<p>So weirdly the place which came up with the "Fourth Estate" only really had two other estates, although everyone reading will have known about the French concept too.<p>In the era when Lords routinely become PM (it would still be legal to do this today, but it's hard to imagine it happening, although the Tories did give a Lord one of the Great Offices of State so never say never) almost all those Lords were born into it. Today basically nobody sat in the Lords was born to it (there are about two dozen left, when they die or retire that's the end of it) but there are still always a dozen or so bishops, and Iran is ironically the only other place [except the Vatican which barely counts] where religious leaders are in government by fiat in the modern world...<p>Edited to mention the Vatican before somebody else does.
MAGA has captured the media, if not entirely by design, but entirely in practice.<p>Thanks to a combination of attacks from the executive, attacks from the oligarchs (Buy a paper and fire everyone who says things you don't like), or the simple fact that sane-washing MAGA insanity sells papers, the 'independent' press is <i>everything but</i>.<p>It is non-stop carrying water for the most insane lunacy, and is trying to convince us that it is fine and normal and desirable.
So I find claims that MAGA (or any other group) has captured the media to be self-contradictory: if they actually had, <i>you would not be writing that, and I would not be able to read it</i>. By definition. Capturing the media means that there is only one official narrative, and the population is completely unaware of anything outside of that narrative. Like the period from ~1950-1995, where you had the big 3 TV networks, and then each city had their own newspaper that basically owned a local monopoly, and they all basically printed/aired the same stories and same viewpoints.<p>IMHO what we're actually seeing is a huge fragmentation of the 4th estate. There is now a viewpoint on the Internet for <i>everything</i>, no matter how insane. That's part of what people don't like about it. This fragmentation of media has allowed airtime for MAGA views that would've been considered far outside the Overton Window just a decade ago, but <i>that was the point of the Internet</i>. And it's not really to the exclusion of other views, it's just that you have to go looking for the other views.
No. Firstly no, the Network is just that, it's technology, you're describing culture, and the culture is a choice made by people of how to use that technology.<p>But also, this idea that somehow <i>now</i> that one guy who believes San Francisco doesn't exist is "media" whereas in 1990 he's not is insane. That's a choice you've made to re-define "random crazy people" as media, the Internet didn't do that. If anything changed magically in 1995 it's how you defined what does or doesn't count as media.
I find the definition that unless the capture is 100%, it isn't actually capture to be absurd.<p>Any strong, independent media ecosystem would not be so consistently sane-washing the firehose of crazy that we're being hit with every week, or kowtowing with such regularity.<p>Yes, you can find some obscure blog that will broadcast literally any cherrypicked viewpoint. That's not the majority of the media consumed in this country. Even when the owners of the networks differ, the message they broadcast is incredibly homogeneous.
The MSM doesn't count as much because of social media noise and paywalls. One could always control the narrative with tweets written in caps with multiple exclamation signs that the MSM reproduces and amplifies for fun and prifit.
But your government is constantly acting illegally. Isn't it time for Americans to... do something? It's clear that your legal framework isn't working.
Do what, exactly? Throw away our lives? 40% of the nation would rather die than vote for anyone other than a racist, and another 40% would tsk-tsk and say “that’s not how you’re supposed to do it”. There’s no revolution coming to save the day.
> Do what, exactly? Throw away our lives?<p>I think the founding fathers were pretty clear about what the American people are expected to do if the systems they put into place aren't enough to preserve freedom. If the colonists had just bent over and spread their cheeks saying "We sure hate being fucked but oh well! what else can we do? Throw away our lives?" we'd still have a king instead of just a wannabe. I'd be very nice if things don't come to that, but ultimately the responsibility to preserve our freedom and democracy is ours. It seems like there are plenty of people lined up to take them from us if we're willing to surrender them. The problem we have now is that an uncomfortably large minority seem happy to do just that.
This is a super reductive reading of the American revolution. The idea of the colonies self governing was popular as hell, for obvious reasons. Our current situation is nowhere near the same thing. The people that aren’t frothing-at-the-mouth fascists are still, overall, comfortable enough in their daily lives that they wouldn’t consider violence against the government for a second. We can’t even get 40% of them to go vote.<p>You want to fight 80% of the nation? Be my guest, but for a violent revolution to be anything but a suicide mission you need to flip those numbers, or have the military on your side. And if you think the US military will flip against capital because of some strongly-held belief of “liberty” I have a bridge to sell you.<p>The only thing we can do is try to convince other people that this shit does actually matter. We’re so far in the hole, though, that it’s going to take a long fucking time to dig ourselves out. It’s not going to be some glorious revolution.
Careful now.<p>Federal income tax didn’t exist until over a century after the founding fathers… founded. The idea was states… that would be united… which is where they got the name.<p>Federal politicians were not meant to have politics be their full time job, which is why congress has sessions.<p>The founding fathers would be extremely sad about the state of the country today. The frog was boiled too long ago for a revolution of the commoners to have any legs. They put in what they thought were explicit safeguards that have been systematically diluted, changed, or misinterpreted since the documents were created.
Maybe it's time to use those guns you always claim you need to keep in order to defend yourself from a government that is acting illegally? I mean isn't this THE EXACT REASON you always say you need them?
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It would only be ironic of you assume those same people who thing the EU over-regulates <i>also</i> support this US government regulation.<p>It's N=1, but I believe <i>both</i> that the EU approach discourages investment and innovation in the EU, <i>and</i> that this US policy will do the same in the US.
It’s a bit in general, because if you actually read the EU AI legislation, most of it follows the right ideas and provides more safety, in the sense that OpenAI and Anthropic used to pretend to care about, but never really did.
The ideas are debatable but generally correct. The EU's problem is that regulation stops at the ideas, and it is intentionally designed so to be impossible to ensure compliance in advance. So the regulation is really after the fact and a subjective judgment by regulators. So there's tons of risk even if you genuinely believe you're complying with the prescribed intents.<p>My opinion on EU regulation would flip 180 degrees if they offered any kind of pre-clearance where you could propose a product, feature, or policy and be told in advance if it meets their subjective requirements.<p>IMO you can have clear, specific requirements in advance, or you can have a body that provides interpretations of spirit-of-the-rules regulations in advance. Having neither is a problem.<p>(yes, I'm aware of the argument that if you tell companies what's legal in advance they will just do the bare minimum or find loopholes... I don't find that to be a legit rule of law system)
I understand that desire entirely, but I’m not sure if it would work that way. Take an ISO 27001 certification (or SOC, if you like): There is no one clear set of things to do, but both guidance and requirements that you need to address and be able to defend your concrete implementation.<p>And I generally like that a lot better than having a set of hard this-way-or-no-way checklists that invariably consist of 80% bullshit ceremony for giant corporations. ISO nudges you toward that too, but if you’re able to deliver the same security guarantees with less, auditors will usually be happy.<p>The same, in general, works for GDPR regulations as well: The law is mostly about doing the right things, but not spelling out the billions of cases and permutations and strategic decisions involving privacy in one way or another.
It's deliberately not prescriptive as the implementers are the ones best placed to solve for requirements - you don't want policy makers providing technical checklists. And it's not unstructured - ISO 42001 essentially encodes it.
With the way things are, having to disclose training data will basically make it impossible for an EU AI to compete.
Im not happy with the AI act in entirety either, but my point was that it’s hard to read it and say "this isn’t generally the right thing to do", where <i>right</i> means responsible and beneficial to society as a whole.
In the end the only winner that emerges out of this is China. Tge EU is over regulating everything, the current US administration is randomly banning things left and right.
Is it really ironic or just yet another example of how the current administration just keep finding ways to line their pockets? Big Tech has lots of money, and they'd just like to get a little taste. Placing arbitrary restrictions is a pretty good motivator for those being restricted to find some way to make necessary contributions.
On some level though we have to be cognizant of the potential for harm these models have.<p>LLMs are still a little loosey goosey, and we are right on the cusp (if not there already) for an agent to hack a bank and steal money for some rando teenager with a penchant for jail breaking.<p>The regulations are and will be negative, but don't lose sight of what LLMs can do off the leash.
> On some level<p>The appropriate level would be regulation though? Like I just don't get how we can argue that arbitrarily throttling companies is ok.
OpenAI fired the starting gun 3.5 years ago before anyone in the industry had a sound safety plan, and not much progress has been made since.<p>So here we are, it's probably going to me messy and err on the side of over-bearing.
Robbing banks is already illegal
Society at large is unaware how much crime general laziness and incompetence prevents from happening.
But we’re entering a somewhat weird situation where a careless/dumb person might actually rob a bank by legitimate accident.
Bank should be more secure, if a random person with an LLM can hack them, they should have paid 100 random blue teamers with LLMs to hack them first to get more secure. Not AI's fault.
> blue teamers<p>Pretty sure you mean red team here. While I've heard people refer to any offensive security (eg including blackhat) as 'red team' , it typically means people you've hired or contracted to try to break into your systems, whereas the blue team are people you've hired to build and operate your security defenses. Red and blue team are both your employees / contractors but perform different functions.
The purpose of policies like this is precisely to ensure that those 100 runs do happen first, rather than allowing a free-for-all where they have to race to secure their systems.
>but don't lose sight of what LLMs can do off the leash.<p>there is no such thing as an LLM "off the leash", it's not a dog, and even if it was a dog the person responsible is the owner. What is this bizarre attitude to a piece of software that makes people think existing laws don't apply?<p>If your LLM agent hacks a bank, you have hacked a bank, you will go to prison and that's entirely sufficient. People have been hacking banks for decades now, it didn't require the government to regulate C compilers and Emacs.
This is overly reductive.<p>If your web browser hacks a bank, but you didn't know and didn't expect it to, have you hacked a bank? Why is an LLM different? What happened to mens rea?
We'll only know when that gets tested in court, but I'd be willing to bet the answer will be: yes, you have hacked a bank. I find it very hard to believe the justice system would let someone off on some technicality around intention and agents after a serious bank hack.
A web browser can't decide to hack a bank anymore than a LLM can. Neither have any understanding of what a bank is or any will to act on their own. The person who instructs/uses a web browser to hack a bank (even if it's someone else's browser) commits the crime.
I think pretty obviously if the user instructs the computer to hack the bank then they are guilty of hacking the bank, I don't think that's the crux of the issue.<p>The crux of the issue is what if the LLM decides on its own to hack the bank while the user isn't watching? Is the user then guilty of hacking the bank or not? I think it's pretty obvious that the user in this scenario is at least <i>less culpable</i> of hacking the bank than they would be if they had deliberately instructed it.<p>LLMs functionally can decide to act on their own. You might say that they're not actually "deciding" anything, because it's just a perfectly mechanical unfolding of chains of tokens triggering actions on the computer, which doesn't count as "deciding". But again I don't think that's the crux of the issue.
> If your web browser hacks a bank, but you didn't know and didn't expect it to, have you hacked a bank?<p>Depends, as usual. Intent can matter, but depends on the statute (and jurisdiction) in question.
There is a baseline level of competence and motivation needed to commit crimes.<p>Decades ago few people would walk into a record store and steal CDs. Napster came along smashing all barriers entry, and it became weird not to steal music.<p>Its not really the legality that matters, it's the barrier on one hand and the cognitive ability on the other. Drop both and you get huge spikes in crime.
Maybe this is a good opportunity for the European AI companies to jump ahead?
Our AI czar, David Sacks, whined and moaned about the idea of regulation, even said Anthropic <i>begging</i> for some guidance was asking for “regulatory capture” and was gloating about how right he was they wanted it, 2 weeks ago.<p>I wonder if he understands why, now.
> there is no established policy on safety guarantees<p>Which is the government’s own fault.<p>Elon Musk talked back in 2018 about how he went to Washington and met with Obama and Congress, but they did nothing.<p>In 2020 Andrew Yang’s entire run for president was centered around the risk of AI displacing job. He lost, no one did anything.<p>A couple years later we say the consumer facing LLMs start to roll out. Still, no one does anything.<p>They have time to micromanage the industry, but in all these years they haven’t found the time to establish any meaningful policy?
Deeper than that, what to do with a super smart AI has been floating around intellectual circles since the late 00's.<p>Google had been pussy-footing AI research due to deathly fear of awakening an ASI, because their safety teams still had no answers.<p>Then Altman came along...
Who specifically? Probably just different people.
I'm fine with this in principle, it's more like regulations last. They looked at the end result and decided it was too powerful to let loose. But also expect the Trump administration to unfairly use it as leverage against US corps.<p>Meanwhile EU prevented itself from building competitive LLMs in the first place.
Regulation is a good thing, even if HN hates it.<p>It's a way to clearly agree on ground rules that you can plan around, not more, not less.<p>The alternative is not no rules, do whatever you want. The alternative is executive capriciousness arbitrarily setting the rules based on whims and messing up your plans.
This applies to most things when it comes to the USG/citizens. Protectionism is communist unless they do it. Thinking about developing a nuke? Well bomb you first despite being the only people to ever use them. Free speech and press - unless we don’t like what you say.
Let’s be real, as an EU citizen I have zero doubts that those models would also have been blocked if developed in EU.<p>I like the US approach better: regulate when the need for it arises, not before when you don’t know how the situation is going to evolve.
They're not regulating though – they're arbitrarily blocking releases based on no clear criteria. The EU may be legalistic and rules-based, but I'd take that over capricious and arbitrary.
It would be <i>really nice</i> if the executive were blocking these releases based on some authority the legislative had granted it.
I wish the EU were legalistic and rules based, but the commission and politicians are involved in many of these things. It's like Trump's executive stuff, just with a committee instead of a single person, and I guess, with less power.
The EU is nothing but capricious and arbitrary. Much of the DMA and similar is pure vibes that you can't know if you violated until the regulators do their divinations months or years after you shipped.
You can’t be serious because “When the need arises” means when your company does not lavish praise on the current administration.
Regulating when the need arises requires also compensating the people who get hurt in the meantime.
If they were real about risk, they would have to block a lot more models.
It sounds nice but you end up with entrenched special interests that later oppose all regulation regardless of the consequences. We have pesticides you wouldn't want anywhere near your children casually used to control weeds on kid's playgrounds, insanely huge trucks that kill hundred each year, the food is garbage...the list is long and tiresome. Trust me brother, if I could live in the EU, I would.
> regulate when the need for it arises<p>I agree. But that need has absolutely arisen. The US government is not exactly the best steward for this kind of thing, but <i>some</i> model other than "race each other as fast as we can" is desperately needed here.
Let's plan a fire fighter division only once we are actually having some buildings in the city burning down. That people who fear that ridiculous perfectly controlled fire in chemines are ridiculous.
Well, when the leaders of this movement go around doom-trolling for years on end this is what happens. It turns out you need to be careful what you say if you're a highly visible public figure. Amazing!<p>Honestly, with open source models I don't think this regulation means anything because there's no way they can really regulate what's coming out of china. I don't think this affects innovation in AI much at all (unless your definition of innovation is "pour more money into diminishing scaling"). It's mostly just bad news for the US frontier labs, and based on their behavior I don't feel sad for them AT ALL. Like, they've basically alienated the vast majority of people by outright threatening their livelihoods or even society at large, and now we're supposed to feel sorry for them because they can't just go around saying "THIS WILL REPLACE ALL JOBS IN A MONTH!" without consequences?
> because there's no way they can really regulate what's coming out of china<p>Do you think the Chinese will go parading around that they've created the greatest cyberweapon known to man, and the CCP will be totally cool with the Americans being first in line to buy tokens, because hey, free market?<p>They would sooner put all their own employees in an incinerator than allow that to happen.
the truth is that doom is a high likelihood<p>sorry we don't lie about that
If they actually think that, then.. stop working on AI? Being the first person to end the world doesn't exactly gain you anything. I guess there's a bleak humor to Altman and Musk and Amodei being forced to live out the rest of their days in their bunkers I guess.<p>Like seriously, to the people that think this is a doomsday thing, if you're serious about that line of thought then STOP DOING IT. It's like the people that are arguing that AI is conscious. IF you truly believe that, then we've just reinvented slavery, and again, STOP!<p>I 100% do not accept the "it's inevitable anyway so morality is out the window". We also have nuclear weapons but we don't need to rush into World War 3. Also nothing inevitable requires trillions of dollars a year to advance because it's so deeply unprofitable.
It’s likely that this would slow down the rate of advancement at the Chinese labs as well
Or significantly increase their market share outside the US and give them some breathing space to catch up with the currently available closed models
I don't see how, other than that it will make it harder for chinese labs to train their models on OpenAI/Anthropics' (which honestly I can't get that worked up about plagiarism in this space considering where they got their data from..)
I remember when Republicans told us they want less regulation and smaller federal government. Now they want their dementia riddled god king to control everything from pool liners to the information you're allowed to see, which is all in books and readily available online.
It was never about principles. It was always about justifying getting the things they wanted.
You're assuming that their base is rational
What surprises me more is that any of the AI CEOs believed them.<p>They were in the tank for Trump because they thought Biden/Harris would stifle them… and here we are.
I don't see how you can make a case for a $700bn+ IPO when the government might not even let you sell your product. America is ceding the lead in the AI race. The winners here will be the Chinese AI companies.<p>If the Chinese models remain predominantly open source then it would probably be for the best. Unfortunately I'm not convinced they will, with examples like Qwen Max showing what could happen.
Z.ai and MoonShot (and StepFun and some others who are another six months behind or targeting smaller use cases) are still open, surprisingly enough.<p>Alibaba making Qwen close up shop for its best models isn’t that surprising, though sad.<p>The worry is that if the US models are locked up like this, then there’s less reason for China to commodify its complement through open weights…
It will just mean US providers will rapidly loose their moat. Their moat is already shrinking. If they can't release their best models, it'll shrink a whole lot faster...
This is what OpenAI/Anthropic want, it's better marketing than they can pay for -- and it creates a precedent for permanently banning the next generation of open weights models
Banning next gen open models would never happen globally, and would be a major disadvantage to any country that does.<p>If the USA continues to put barriers into the release of models, open and/or foreign models will start to out perform them.<p>If open models are competitive enough nothing will stop even US companies from running them locally.
damn, never thought about this - but yeah this is where we are heading.<p>open weight models - will be deemed too risky to be out in the open - since they can be abused by "bad actors" (unwashed masses)
100% this is the direction all govts will go. This isn't specific to any political party, it's just about communications control. I don't think open source models will be directly capped, necessarily, but all commercial/easy-to-setup models will be heavily regulated.
I wouldn’t be surprised if they started going after open-source as a whole and labeling it “communism” like the old Microsoft days.
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It’s going to be a bit trickier to do that, even banning US providers from hosting them legally might be tricky to do.
The EU bans ASML for American chip use.<p>America bans intel and amd from exporting chips.<p>Whats next.
Yup, regulatory capture.
Not a fan of the phased release but I do remember when access to gpt-3 was gated and access to gpt-4 had a staged release.<p>ppl are acting like limited release is unprecedented when, in fact, has been the norm until a few years ago.
Gated by capacity constraints for all users is very different that picking “trusted partners” that get preferential access. Especially when that access is based on political connections
Gated by the company that made it is not remotely the same thing as gated by the government.
Was it the norm for Trump's team to hand-select the specific customers who get access in the staged rollout, and to choose the date of wide release?
The AI companies were all asking for the government to regulate them. The government is doing what the companies asked for them to do.<p>You can argue that, by government, they meant some legislative process, but I'd argue that regulation via bad executive order is much better than regulation via bad legislation because the former is tractable. I say this as an EO minimalist.
There's a pretty big difference between "we need laws and regulations" and "let Trump do whatever he feels like today."
What are the proper laws and regulations? Can you point me to a proposed framework that you believe is most correct?<p>I have no idea how this stuff should be regulated. I do know that any sort of comprehensive legislation at this point in time has a much higher chance of being a bottleneck to innovation than an easily reversible white house directive.<p>Of all the terrible things to come from the odious Trump administration, them saying "hey, can we make sure these models aren't dangerous?" is one of the least bad things they've done.
>I have no idea how this stuff should be regulated.<p>That's why we have a system where representatives of districts do research, debate, and hash out those details while the public who votes for them is able to contact them.<p>>I do know that any sort of comprehensive legislation at this point in time has a much higher chance of being a bottleneck to innovation than an easily reversible white house directive.<p>That's odd to say after admitting you don't know what the regulation would look like. Especially after seeing the "easily reversible" tariffs from this White House, which changed erratically and had exceptions for people who sweet talked the president.
If you don’t see a difference between a well thought out & debated policy stance and arbitrary enforcement without justification I’m not sure what to say.
Anthropic submitted a long, thoughtful framework proposal, which everyone seems to be ignoring in favor of hot takes like “they asked for this!” No they didn’t, not at all.
> can we make sure these models aren't dangerous<p>They can’t, though. The models might or might not be too dangerous but the people running the US federal government are too incompetent and/or corrupt to do anything useful about that.
Written laws, passed by congress and senate?
That's not what Trump's doing. He's just trying to pick and choose winners so that he can reward his allies and punish his enemies.
> The AI companies were all asking for the government to regulate them
pretty shallow take. they asked for sensible, transparent, tech aware regulations. this is not that.
Ok so to be clear you agree this has not been the norm. It seemed like you were clarifying your original message but it was a change of topic, from "this has been the norm" to "this hasn't been the norm but they got what they were asking for" (or what they deserved if not exactly what they asked for). I'll dip out of that conversation.
Yeah pretty sure we had a whole bruhaha ~250 years ago about this question of where precisely power belonged. I for one think we mostly got it right then and would be reluctant to shift the power back to the individual sovereign and away from the people.
I wonder what kind of scheme the administration is up to. The obvious play is a squeeze where OpenAI and Anthropic are forced to give parts of their company away, like Intel. But they could also be toying with the idea of limiting frontier AI access to companies that bend the knee, which would further cement their grasp on the tech industry.
That only happens in governments that treat regulations as a racket, not something to be used for public good.
I largely blame people like Amodei for such outcome. As product owners, they could've done it the old way: telling people how great this product is, how much potential it has, and what kind of guardrails the companies are building and etc. But oh no, Amodei has to do the doom trolling 24x7, while in the meantime plays a cult leader by telling people only he knows how to the guarding angel of the AI or the humanity thereof. Ironically, the same people also push their companies to develop more powerful AI in full speed. They think ordinary Americans are so stupid that they can't see through them?
So OAI are you also silently dumbing down your models when you detect "inappropriate topics" like Anthropic did with Fable?
> There's been no public policy, executive order, legislation, or otherwise on this<p>I mean, insofar as you could frame each new model as its own patentable invention, "patent secrecy" would be an existing policy framework that clearly justifies what's been happening here.<p>1. Some private company or individual invents something.<p>2. But the state wants a monopoly on the new thing's military use-cases (against other states/militaries.) So the state forcibly classifies the invention at patent time.<p>3. But the individual/company still wants to make more money than the state is giving them as compensation for their own use of the patent. They want to sell to the private market. But, of course, the state doesn't want to permit this, as arbitrary private parties could in turn resell to foreign state actors.<p>4. So a compromise is struck: private use is now made deny-by-default. The state permits the individual or company to sell into the private market, <i>given</i>: a rigorous per-customer KYB background-checking process; strong supply-chain tracing; contractual stipulations prohibiting resale; and the customer use-case being transformative or cost-prohibitive to extract the original invention from.<p>5. As such, big established enterprise customers who want the invention for private use in their internal industrial processes, can somewhat-easily jump all those hoops to acquire access to it; but everyone else is now basically locked out.<p>Sound familiar?
Caused by AI marketing teams hyping everyone up.
> conversations between the Executive Branch and AI companies<p>You think there is a record?
It’s already the new norm.
I agree that this is all ridiculously arbitrary right now, but it shouldn't be surprising either.<p>I can't find the exact blog post (maybe on simonwillison.net ?) but I read people predicting that know your customer laws would be coming to AI if it gets more powerful several years ago already.<p>Powerful technology that can do immense harm in the hand of individuals/small groups is the most obvious (and legitimate!) target for regulation. Maybe Anthropics hubbub around Mythos made all of this happen earlier than it would have, but it was going to happen (if the models are going to get as capable as valuations imply they will).<p>(Edit: Of course this doesn't mean it can be effectively regulated in practice)<p>Further more, no one actually gets hurt if we start rolling these things out more slowly.<p>Rolling them out selectively according to the whims of an administration that disdains fair process, tears down the institutions that could potentially provide and legitimise reasonable regulation, etc... well, that's another topic.
Shadow of export controls is very long indeed.<p>The Project is almost here.
<i>It's worrying that with no formal and transparent policy framework that the government will be picking winners and losers and stifling innovation.</i><p>The market will demand such a framework. I suspect that's the larger idea here, in that Amodei not only wants to be in the room when that framework is written, he wants to be at the head of the table.<p>He apparently wants it so badly he's willing to set back his own company's IPO to make it happen, given that there can be no pure-play AI IPOs until the regulatory picture is sorted out.
I'm going to get downvoted here, but all the E/acc people that loudly allocated for Trump, someone known for amassing power by any means necessary including strong arming industry should be publicly eating crow right now. This was something that was always in the cards when you vote for someone who only cares about himself.
All the tech CEOs had no qualms about groveling before Trump and licking his boots, so yeah I assume they must be 100% onboard with stuff like this as well
I agree. It’s crazy the backwards reasoning that is being used to blame anthropic for this!
For some conspirational reasons, I am thinking that this was the part of the deal between Anthropic and US government, all buzz was for PR, but behind the closed doors Anthropic asked US to regulate the LLM space
How can you simultaneously be a bottleneck for innovation while being their largest customer, and pouring tons of money and resources into it to help accelerate development?<p>The startup-brained among us never learned the first rule of business which is to not fuck over your benefactor.
The big companies want this. It's a moat for them, a way to keep competitors (especially overseas) out of the US market.<p>They might try to extend it to downloadable open weight models, but honestly they might not even bother with that. The goal is to keep people from competing on lucrative contracts or the hosting market.
The precedent for this is terrible.<p>MAGA is bad enough. Imagine if the current batch of US progressives, who have 0 idea how any of this works, wins the presidency and gets to decide who gets to use it.
In the EU that's the norm not the exception. A little taste of Europe for our American friends :-S
But think about how terrible it would be if “foreigners” (including the ones that work on these models) got access!<p>We must clutch our pearls and cite National Security as a reason to pick winners and losers, just like the government did for Fable.
I am still waiting for a government to try “nationalizing” AI by saying anything produced by AI belongs to “everyone” and thus hugely taxing the profits and proceeds from the product, as soon as Bernie Sanders thinks of it you can bet we’ll hear all about it.
Apparently your hearing isn't that good, since you haven't heard of the American AI Sovereign Wealth Fund Act.<p><a href="https://www.sanders.senate.gov/press-releases/news-sanders-introduces-legislation-to-create-7-trillion-ai-sovereign-wealth-fund/" rel="nofollow">https://www.sanders.senate.gov/press-releases/news-sanders-i...</a>
I'm honestly surprised there isn't more political outcry. The administration has a party affiliation that, typically, insists on free market principles and is against government overreach and regulation.<p>You would think that this government, attempting to puppeteer the most rapidly growing industry in the world, would have more people outraged.<p>Where are all of the people crying "Communist"? This is one of those moments where it is less of an overreaction.
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You have fallen victim to what is known as “marketing”.
> We don't let passengers fly on unvetted jumbo jets either and we prevent them from flying when they have problems.<p>This is <i>Mr. Fart's Favorite Colors</i> all over again. Our "vetting" process is not any more useful than the billion-dollar metal detector you can skip with a TSA Precheck. It arguably does not deter the most dangerous attacks even slightly. What happens when a mentally-ill pilot locks their copilot out of the cockpit? Well, we write off a crowd of passengers and then "vet" the next jet as a safe vehicle.<p>AI will be the same way. These "safety" measures are performative and do not even slightly address the actual threat surface of the technology. Arguably, it cannot even be done.
What a terrible take<p>First of all, who said this is a disaster?<p>Second of all, OP never even said anything about no regulation - they specifically said they wanted transparency which is 100% valid and better than a world where the government baby proofs everything for you<p>Models are already censored - and who they are or aren't uncensored for has a lot of implications which are way worse<p>And the jets is a terrible example - you picked one of THE highest regulated industries where NOBODY has a problem with regulation
This move was obvious the moment Anthropic pleaded to the government to regulate them.<p>As predicted, [0] it has now been applied to OpenAI and soon anyone else releasing highly capable models.<p>[0] <a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48511849">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48511849</a>
Seems like it hasn't been applied to openai. Anthropic can't even release this to partners. Openai can. I wonder why.
Wondering how long it'll take for the US to make it... more difficult to use Chinese models once they've caught up.
Just because you don't get access, doesn't mean they're not innovating.
Maybe, but you know who is also innovating, <i>not</i> gating access, and at most 6-9 months away from reaching parity with US frontier labs?
Also applies to Chinese models. Give it 5 more months of US admin locking out US models and let's see what the market will look like for OoenAI and Anthropic IPO.
Their innovation relies on a huge amount of investment made under the assumption that they'll continue to be able to provide frontier models to a global audience. If it turns out the US government only lets them sell gimped models to non-citizens then they'll forfeit the whole global market to China and investors will flee like rats.
> <i>Only companies approved by the government will get access. There is no process for individual users to get access to the new model.</i><p>I knew the time would come when individuals on personal subscriptions get the short end of the stick. Didn't think it would come so soon. I hope we're not <i>too</i> badly deprecated in the months to come.<p>Looks like I've got to improve my DeepSeek workflows.
For personal use I don't care if I get access to it. Tokens are becoming too expensive. I am using Chinese models. What worries me is that my company may never get access. I work for a well known US company, but from Europe, we also have developers in Mexico. I can only guess US gov will take this into account when deciding who gets to use the new models.<p>Even worse than not getting access is getting fired. Since less than 20% of our developers reside outside US and our management is suffering from AI hype, they can decide to close foreign offices as a way to get access to new models.<p>edit: grammar
> For personal use I don't care if I get access to it<p>There's a big difference between being priced out of a market option and the government saying you literally cannot buy it. We should all be wary of government controls like this.
You are right, I was thinking selfishly. I don't like the control governments have on tech in general. In my country government forced banks to use device attestation for banking apps. If your android phone is in developer mode banking app won't work, you can change bank but it will make no difference. I think they are also enforcing 2FA to be in the banking apps, so I can't even use web app without locked down android phone or iPhone.
Govt controls of that nature will not be tolerated by financial markets - the line must go up and to the right.
in theory yes
Even the subscriptions are too expensive?
Last time I used subscription I hit a usage limit in 20 minutes (gemini). I switched to openrouter and have enough prepaid credits to last me for months with Chinese models. I spent about $30 in last two months.
They're pretty limited these days
> For personal use I don't care if I get access to it. Tokens are becoming too expensive.<p>How is this a rational argument?<p>Are you so self centered that you only care about government decisions that affect ONLY the present you?<p>“I don’t care that the government made prescription glasses illegal, I can see fine without them”
From the OpenAI press release:<p>> We don’t believe this kind of government access process should become the long-term default. It keeps the best tools from users, developers, enterprises, cyber defenders, and global partners who need them. We are taking this short-term step because we believe it is the strongest path to broader availability in the coming weeks, while we work with the Administration to develop the cyber Executive Order framework and a repeatable process for future model releases.<p>It seems like the exclusion is temporary. There is no process for individual users to get access to the new model _right now_.
You have to be very intentionally dishonest and ignorant to ever believe that increased government powers are "temporary".<p>That's how authoritarian governments become authoritarian.
Nobody denies or even claimed that.<p>Just as a reminder, the claim (only two comments ago) was that it will never reach people and be limited only to certain government-approved companies.<p>The press release pretty clearly outlines the next steps that will eventually get it into people's hands.<p><i>That</i> is the claim that is being refuted. Nothing about the obvious government overreach happening here. You are the one that decided to bring that in as a strawman.
When it comes to government, nothing is more permanent than a temporary solution.
> I knew the time would come when individuals on personal subscriptions get the short end of the stick.<p>This is <i>how it started</i>.<p>Only researchers were able to get access to the early <i>super dangerous</i> AI models that were much worse than you can now run locally on your phone.
Forget your DeepSeek workflows. The "US government" <i>coughexecutivebranchcough</i> can now pick corporate winners and losers too.
Also I'd be willing to bet companies in left-leaning states, or with left-leaning figureheads will be excluded from use as well. This administration is amazingly petty and has captured voter records for a reason.
You and I both know that capitalism values corporations over individuals.
yeah, but didn't you hope the people rubber stamping AI information weren't the nazis?
Given how the WH operates these days, this is ripe for corruption. Imagine the WH dislikes the CEO of a biotech company, while appreciating the attitude of a competitor CEO. What is to stop them from stalling on giving acess for the latest model to the company they don't like?
><i>Imagine the WH dislikes the CEO of a biotech company, while appreciating the attitude of a competitor CEO.</i><p>there is no need to imagine, this is what is literally happening
> ripe for corruption<p>You're two steps behind.
> What is to stop them from stalling on giving acess for the latest model to the company they don't like?<p>Congress, if any of those creatures were vertebrates.<p>For the next few months, though? Nothing will. Those in the in-crowd will line each others' pockets at the expense of the rest of us. I will say that the recent election results and the building bipartisan angst over data centers and surveillance (e.g. Flock) are encouraging.
"Given how the WH operates these days" I've got bad news for you...
That's precisely what's going to happen.
You dont even need corruption. Once its political it becomes subservient to political interests.
The tragedy is the Trump admin is setting the precedent and creating the framework which will be abused in the future. For all the complains he made about the deep state, he's just creating a new avenue for them to abuse power
He always was the "deep state...."
We are living <i>in</i> the future, so who set the precedent in the past?
Same as it ever was. If you listen to interviews with Zuckerberg he’ll talk about the constant communiques from The White House during the Biden administration. Trump didn’t start this unfortunately he’s just more brazen about it.
Uhhh no. The White House (and other government agencies) have a well-established right to communicate with private entities. They <i>do not</i> have a right to coerce them. There's a blurry line between these, but not in Facebook's case, as they don't even <i>claim</i> they were coerced. Same with Twitter, whose lawyers testified under oath that Twitter's content moderation decisions were not coerced whatsoever.<p>Zuckerberg has specifically said they received requests from the government, they complied with some (as they have a right to do), declined others (as they have a right to do), none of which was under duress, and the response to non-compliance was expressions of "frustration" by the government officials.<p>By contrast, OpenAI's largest competitor just got kneecapped by the US government because they insisted that the US government comply with the contract terms the US government signed to literally months previously.
All you're saying is that the government under Biden talked to Meta.
which of facebooks major products did Biden pull on a whim?<p>i dont remember whatsapp suddenly being turned off
Tiktok?
That was via law passed by congress not executive fiat, which Trump's executive branch was illegally delaying until it was sold to a political ally.
Still happened under Trump, they just forced TikTok to sell to a political ally.
Oh no! Biden sent an email to a company with a voluntary request?<p>That’s definitely as concerning as Trump taking bribes and then picking winners and losers in the market.
They is what is currently and blatantly happening already.
In most countries around the world corruption/bribes are necessary for doing business. Companies even account for it on their books. It was about time the US caught up.
Im not worried about this at all. The OpenAI, Anthropic and the US government can play this game all they want... They're just accelerating the development of open source models; and helping destroy the lead the US has built in AI, and their profit margins along with it.<p>This is like the battle between PostgreSQL and Oracle all over. Move up market, isolate yourself to enterprises, and watch while everyone else builds on PostgreSQL and erodes any technical advantage you had, until people just stop talking about you altogether.
Encryption is a better example. The USG tried exactly the same tactic in the 90’s. The NSA tried to shove the Clipper chip down everyone’s throats. The USG put export controls on encryption and people went as far as to tattoo the algorithms on their body.<p>But like you said, they will try to control it and fail. Like they always do.
I generally agree, but it's a bit overstated to say "nobody talks about Oracle now" -- they made a profit of about $17 billion dollars in 2025.
The government will just claim that unsanctioned models have the potential to deliberately introduce security vulnerabilities when working on IT projects (e.g. be trained to strongly yet covertly favoring introducing compromised dependencies when you are not looking).<p>Then laws will be made to forbid organizations who use models other than those from the sanctioned labs to participate in critical projects on national security concerns.<p>All of a sudden, no business would risk using open source models anymore.
Then all they do is drive the usage of open models underground (copyright infringement is illegal too, and still common), stifle US companies operating legally, and accelerate the rest of the world decoupling from the US.<p>I hope they do it! It will have a positive long-term effect just like the Iran war footgun accelerates renewable energy transition.
And companies from outside the US will outcompete those from the US forcing more protectionism, higher prices in US etc. I think there have been several cycles of several industries that have gone through this cycle (cars, shipping?), and mostly forced to roll back.
Streisand effect
The battle was between Oracle and MySQL (and PostgreSQL won).
That until it becomes illegal to have or use open source models without approval and licence from government. With more talks about on device scanning, this could be easily plumbed in. If OS detects there is open source model, it could brick your device or alert authorities. Then next step will be limiting what operating system you can install. Likely only those where you cannot remove client side scanning.
I wonder how you can reliably detect an open source model though. It can be stored in any binary format, and the weights can be modified slightly so that the float values are completely different while the network works the same. The binary that runs it can be obfuscated as well. Maybe the hardware could detect common LLM inference patterns at runtime? That would probably produce many false positives.
It's been illegal forever to run a pirated copy of Windows or Photoshop. Even 30 years ago people weren't worried that their pirated copies would tattle on them, businesses did not use pirated copies because vendors would report them/not work on their systems, legal discovery could find them, etc and then they would get ridiculous fines.<p>It's one thing to get a copy of "illegal" software and use it yourself. The stakes are basically zero and you almost certainly will not get caught<p>It's a completely different thing to run a business on it with dozens of employees and requiring the employees to break the law to do their job.
You don’t need to detect it, you just need to incentivize employees and competitors to snitch on companies using unapproved models.
You don't need a blacklist.<p>Maintaining a blessed whitelist is the way to go.
Antivirus companies have large expertise in this.
This is getting terrifying pretty quick...
It can't easily be plumbed in, though. I can spin up my own Linux build with none of that plumbing and do what I want with it. I can grab China's best models and use them or distilled versions on my own terms because OSS allows for that. Until hardware comes fully locked down and the models cannot be run on old hardware, both a long ways off, OSS is a way out.
Linux will be an illegal operating system in 2027 because it doesn't do age verification.
Good joke. The whole US industry would collapse before even destroying one of the main pillars of AWS, Google and whatnot. It would be funny if all the billion-sized corpos suing the judges en masse for trillions of dollars in losses. Lots of them would even ask for bodyguards because for sure the bribed ones would dissapear in really "weird" ways.
In the not so distant future, all your coding edits (for work anyway) will be through centralized gateways. Think remote desktop environment where pasting from the client is disabled.
Politicians can act very quickly if there is good enough "incentive".
Eh probably easier ways to do this. Just sanction all entities that release open weight models for "illegal distillation". Enough to cross the risk threshold for most businesses in the west, and reduce future monetization opportunities.
Not gonna happen; the incentives for bypassing this are too high.
Indeed, it's like people don't understand this is a cataclysm for US AI competitiveness.<p>You cannot justify such a capex on AI anymore. This will drag down the us financial markets and economy too.
> and their profit margins along with It<p>lol that’s a good one.
The biggest concern is identifying "who". If the US government says only US citizens can access a model, how do they enforce that. Anthropic and OpenAI will use Persona (a company funded by Peter Thiel) to verify user identity. Verifying your identity with a government ID and linking that to AI is the dream of a surveillance state. Agents running on your computer, accessing your internet accounts, access to your personal conversations with AI, and accessible by the government is just wild.<p>I'm hoping this is a call to action for local AI.
No, not really. The biggest concern is the US government claiming it can decide who gets to use a product and brazenly kneecapping competitive companies who do such things as "write contracts and comply with them."
The US government isn't <i>claiming</i> that — it is telling you that fact.
Isnt the stated reason actually the most likely though? They dont want Chinese backed companies getting it. That is what they said about Fable (SK Hynix). You dont really need a conspiracy theory to explain it.
Local AI will never be as powerful as cloud-based models, at least not in the foreseeable future. We’re talking about a difference between 7B and 750B+ parameters, a 100x scale gap.<p>I think the trend will be running open-weight models with the provider of your choice. You can always switch providers, avoiding vendor lock-in, with the trade-off of privacy concerns. You have to trust that the provider actually behaves the way they claim.
> If the US government says only US citizens can access a model, how do they enforce that.<p>It's easy if only enterprise users have access. It just becomes yet another compliance issue.<p>They won't let the public use it, even if citizens, because that would undermine the goal of controlling its use.<p>> I'm hoping this is a call to action for local AI.<p>If US frontier models stop being publicly available then they stop mattering, it also becomes hard to justify further investment in US AI companies if distribution is so locked down. The Chinese models will be the frontier.
Well I was expecting it but if it's not going to become available in this subscription cycle for me I will cancel oai subs as I did with claude ones months ago...<p>moving to open weight models is trivial now, with optimizations and stuff glm 5.2 is roughly the same price as the best models around from multiple vendors.<p>unless I could atleast try and see Sol perform like 10x better I don't really have a reason to switch back.<p>I used Fable for like what 2-3 days at most and didn't really feel it was so much better, only difference was I had to prompt it less, not to get what I want but to get to a working output. Code quality was still shit, still made bad plans and analysis and so on.
Are these models still relevant for people outside the US? I get the impression we're stuck on GPT 5.5 and Opus 4.8 pretty much permanently now, and relying on Chinese models in future.
If the US really cracks down on frontier model access, you'll see them make Chinese open models illegal. You might say "oh well, let them try", but they will just put direct and secondary sanctions on every company whose systems have used Chinese models in some way. They just have to make an example out of a few international companies and no one will dare to use Chinese frontier models, at least commercially.
> but they will just put direct and secondary sanctions on every company whose systems have used Chinese models in some way<p>What about this: companies stop providing AI tokens to their employees entirely and instead, give a monthly budget for developer tools? They can even go as far as saying "if we realise that you use Chinese AI, you will get a warning and then be fired".<p>It's not like one can identify code coming from Chinese AI, right? As long as a company doesn't pay for those subscriptions, it may just be the employees writing the code all by themselves :-).
This is why we can't decouple ourselves from the US fast enough.
in the extremely unlikely event that they do this, what will happen is that Chinese models will become "rebranded" with a wink and a nod by the token routers (at the very least, the non-US ones). there is a zero percent chance that corporations will not work around it if the models are good and cheap.
Theoretically that gives edge to all other companied around the world though, no?
I don't think a critical mass of them will oppose the US. The most likely equilibrium is Chinese models being shut out of any US-aligned markets (i.e. Europe at the very least, also East Asia, etc.). Probably India, Russia, Brazil etc. will resist such pressure, but they are protectionist and resilient to trade wars anyway, at the expense of their own welfare of course.
It's not clear what a "US-aligned market" is anymore, and I think it's reasonable to question US hegemony on any front because of its mercurial treatment toward its "allies".<p>Example... the USA effectively bans Chinese EVs and hoped its allies would follow suit. Canada didn't. It actually dropped its 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs down to 6% and, sure enough, seven brands of Chinese EVs are hitting Canadian shores. White House temper tantrums ensued. Shrug. And of course Europe has been importing Chinese EVs for years and loving them.
Just because the US sanctions a country, doesn't mean the rest of the world needs to as well. As a Canadian we traded with Cuba even when the US had an embargo on them.
I mean, after the US just signed an export control ordering Fable access blocked to non-US users (including European nationals), I doubt European and "US-aligned markets" are eager to ban Chinese models against their own interests.
>US-aligned markets (i.e. Europe at the very least,<p>Member when Trump threatened to invade Greenland? Europe does.<p>Europe has been in the process of de-americanization for the past few years.
> Europe at the very least<p>How's life under that rock?
You're delusional, US is already seen like the biggest threat to Europe since the tariffs and Greenland threats.<p>If you think we're playing fools again, you're wrong.
I know that Europe thinks so (I'm from there too), but we aren't remotely competitive enough for decoupling. It's bowing to US demands or falling further behind economically. Self-made problems, of course, since the common market is still way underdeveloped, much because of nationalist egoism and coordination problems between the member states.
And the chinese will just lie down and take this without doing anything?
You think the US can tell the rest of the world "we're the only ones allowed to use frontier models" and that the rest of the world will just comply? There's just no way. Not even close US allies would go along with that.
> If the US really cracks down on frontier model access, you'll see them make Chinese open models illegal.<p>We don't give a fuck about US laws - respectfully, the rest of the planet.<p>We're already sick of your shit and this will only add to it. Just look at the Iran shit show. What a joke. Ooooooo wooooooo sanctionzzz scary. Sanctions only work if they're enforceable.
I have no idea, but how is it easy to know whether somebody used these models? They can be hosted even locally.
> but they will just put direct and secondary sanctions on every company whose systems have used Chinese models in some way<p>Yes, and the rest of the world would just nod worriedly and go along with it, at massive cost to their economies, rather than treating it like the protectionism it is and responding to it with crippling counter-sanctions.
Dont worry, chinese models will distill frontier ones, quite fast.<p>The excuse they give is borderline childish. I get the thing about slow rollout, make sure partners get to fix the bugs, etc...<p>But bad actors are hard working motivated entities with tens of thousand of fake ids, and american citizens working for them, for pennies.<p>All while the ones like or you sit at a crossfire which is borderline useless.<p>I cant wait to see what Qwen did with the massive distillation they made out of Opus 4.8 and Fable aka Mythos aka pretty sure they jailbroke it.
You shouldn’t build a business that relies on any of these models. It’s a geopolitical and sovereignty risk now. Someone could just rug pull your entire stack.
Not only that, but using Opus 4.8 [1m] right now outside the US, and suddenly I only have a 500k context window. I really hope this is just a strange Claude Code bug, but I had access to a 1 Million window before, and it wouldn't entirely surprise me if context window length becomes another US export restriction.<p>The Anthropic page here seems to say that Max users <i>should</i> have access to the full 1 Million window for 4.8:<p><a href="https://support.claude.com/en/articles/8606394-how-large-is-the-context-window-on-paid-claude-plans" rel="nofollow">https://support.claude.com/en/articles/8606394-how-large-is-...</a><p>I was already setting up my infra to experiment with GLM 5.2 and its 1 Million token window before this happened. I think I'm glad I did.<p>EDIT: Found a solution, seems Claude Code 2.1.193 (or an earlier version I didn't notice) changed default settings, so that if you have Autocompact turned on it occurs at 50% of the context window. If you turn off Autocompact, the full 1 Million context window is restored. Another example of Claude Code quietly changing default settings <i>sigh</i>
That’s assuming China would not start controlling the access to their models.
Chinese companies can make a killing selling on prem AI systems to the rest of the world now.<p>Big boxes with Huawei GPUs and Chinese open models to run inside your company without network access.
They could, but I can imagine if US keeps on blocking the cutting edge models, China would never ship the cutting edge models and would still make a killing shipping models that are powerful enough for most of business cases
China has no reason to do that. The US is freely handing them the international market for AI.
US just needs their internationally usable model to be better than China's. If China catches up, US starts releasing more powerful models.
Let’s see how fast China would catch up. This would be a good indicator on how much Chinese companies relied on US frontier models to improve their own
If US models cost 20x compared to China, they have to be at least 20x better.
Are they though? I see this as a precautious method by US to maintain AI model superiority so the Chinese companies cannot distill from the US frontier models. Let's see how fast Chinese models would improve without access to latest US models and if they keep on releasing open models
Why do people always fearmonger China speculatively doing things that the US is actively doing?
Hopefully. I hope this eventually nudges my employer to use Deepseek or other Chinese models.
Remember how China turned its tech industry into a smoking ruin - make making them all submit to political priorities:<p>Ant Group: China halted Ant’s IPO and forced a restructuring<p>Alibaba: China fined and politically disciplined Alibaba<p>Didi: China punished Didi after its US listing by removing its apps, freezing users, forcing delisting<p>Tutoring platforms: banned profit from core school-subject tutoring.<p>Tencent gaming: restricted youth gaming froze approvals<p>NetEase and gaming companies: licence freeze stopped game companies from shipping games.<p>Meituan: fined Meituan and forced changes to its labour and platform model.<p>Huya/DouYu: blocked Tencent’s game-streaming merger, stopping commercial consolidation in a major entertainment market.<p>Boss Zhipin / Full Truck Alliance: froze new users after listging in the US<p>Crypto companbies: banned crypto trading and mining, forcing exchanges offshore.<p>Think it's not happening to the US?<p>tourism - people afraid to visit<p>tariffs - wrecking ball to all businesses<p>defence - why would anyone buy US weapons after Greenland and Canada<p>internet clouds - Greenland made Europe decide that the US clouds can't be trusted, now sovereign computing matters and MS/AWS/Google are feeling it<p>finance - no one trusts the US not to turn people into "non members of global society" by banning them from visa and credit card and banking systems
It's really interesting that someone can know all of these domestic Chinese names and yet declare the industry generally a "smoking ruin". Is it from a newsletter or something?<p>Because anyone who used these companies' products in China would see a pretty large ecosystem that's making a lot of money.
> It's really interesting that someone can know all of these domestic Chinese names and yet declare the industry generally a "smoking ruin".<p>They're different things. Just like you can be the most famous actor or singer and still be poor. Being popular, having good products and actually making money is not the same.<p>And it's all relative. Today if NASDAQ dropped 20% the world would declare it in ruins. Are the companies still "alive"? Yes.<p>> Because anyone who used these companies' products in China would see a pretty large ecosystem that's making a lot of money.<p>Not true. A lot of them e.g. the public listed 1s have reported increased competition and reduced margins.
> if NASDAQ dropped 20%<p>If NASDAQ dropped 20%, it would have returned to the level last seen three months ago, in March 2026. Calling that "in ruins" would be a pretty big stretch.
To pick one example, OP talked about meituan like they haven't seen multiple meituan delivery riders per block every time they take a walk. It strains credibility. Why do they even know the name if they don't see that? Its not like they operate in America.
> Why do they even know the name if they don't see that?<p>We're in the age of the Internet. You don't have to be physically there to see anything. They could have just read it on the news, saw social media videos, etc?
From my perspective curtailing Ant's plans was positive regulatory action.<p>Political priorities and good governance is why we have government.
<i>Remember how China turned its tech industry into a smoking ruin</i><p>Not really, no. What planet is this on?
Some of these were very good decisions imho, from someone who spent two months in Chineese rural area around ~2019.<p>- Tutoring platforms were a plague on Chineese youth that increased the weight of their already _very_ heavy load (tbh, i think and education reform might have been preferable, this is a stopgap, but at least it is something).<p>- Ant group was offering predatory consumption loans to rural China, which to me felt a lot like the "revolver credits" that plagued my country in the 80s and 90s and pushed to many to suicide (the surname cam from their english name, "revolving credit", and because my countryside had a lot of hunting rifle available to whomever). Considering how rural china is mistreaded by Chineese state and general government (and imho this is a real weakness in China politics), having this group by a huge fine for their practice and a general debt forgivness was great. Curtailing Ant's power is also good.<p>- Stopping consolidation is a great way to keep a market free.<p>- Crypto companies: mining diverted power from villages who couldn't compete on purchasing power to mining wharehouses in some state. The ban is great for the rural population at least. Also, if that can curtail the birth of Chineese cryptobros, great for the mental health of the country.
The US is now doing a softer and broader version of the same thing to trust-based export sectors. It’s not the same method but! it is the same mechanism. The main difference is that the US damage is more reputational than structural, so it could be reversed faster (only if policy stops telling customers that dependence on America is a political risk)
China tech industry is smoking ruin? On what planet are you living?
Tech crackdowns rid China of entrepreneurial capitalism
<a href="https://eastasiaforum.org/2023/09/12/tech-crackdowns-rid-china-of-entrepreneurial-capitalism/" rel="nofollow">https://eastasiaforum.org/2023/09/12/tech-crackdowns-rid-chi...</a><p>Why China crushed its tech giants <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/china-tech-giants-policy/" rel="nofollow">https://www.wired.com/story/china-tech-giants-policy/</a><p>Why Big Tech May Never Recover in China <a href="https://time.com/6973119/china-big-tech-crackdown-backfiring/" rel="nofollow">https://time.com/6973119/china-big-tech-crackdown-backfiring...</a><p>Beijing can’t afford another crackdown on its tech companies <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/11/china-cant-afford-another-crackdown-on-its-tech-companies.html" rel="nofollow">https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/11/china-cant-afford-another-cr...</a>
That is about investor confidence, not company performance. The companies are for the most part still making boatloads of money, just not as much as investors naively expected to get from taking over a market with 1.4B people.<p>And even if foreign investors are more cautious now, there is plenty of money trapped by capital controls, so that it doesn't look like new tech companies have trouble raising capital anyway.
At some point, we should kinda accept that "China's X, Y, Z industries are about to collapse" headlines are just bad at predicting the future. They've proven again and again how they can pivot fast. Applies to tech as well.<p>I'm assuming you don't have any working relations with any Chinese companies, because on-the-ground shows something much different than what these headlines promise.
I suppose we should bookmark this for the next time that HN claims that the rise of China's tech industry is inevitable.
Orange and apples... China has very intentional policy behind those decisions. The US... Not so much. I don't buy that Trump and his whole cabinet are as dumb as they look, but they are only motivated by profit. And ignorance.
This was generated by AI and slightly re-written or end capped by a human. Anyone that knows who Meituan and Boss Zhipin are wouldn't make the claims this post makes. It's not reasonable that someone who could list off these companies and incidents would believe China's tech industry is in ruin. There's no way. This poster clearly promoted for the list, and wrote his commentary around it. Sad.
> defence - why would anyone buy US weapons after Greenland and Canada<p>Huh? US foreign military sales are up at all time highs<p>"Total exports by the United States, the world’s largest supplier of arms, increased by 27 per cent. This included a 217 per cent increase in US arms exports to Europe, according to new data published today by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)"<p>[<a href="https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2026/global-arms-flows-jump-nearly-10-cent-european-demand-soars" rel="nofollow">https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2026/global-arms-f...</a>]
> defence - why would anyone buy US weapons after Greenland and Canada<p>It's the ONLY one (almost) that are actively tested and verified in real battles.
Yep, American tourism is in shambles. Everyone's terrified<p>...because the USA made it into the knockout stage. really scary stuff
This is a real head scratcher. Unless this is a very short term action it seems to have only downsides for everybody:<p>- people pay much more for US models than Chinese models because right now they're the best. Once they're no longer the best (since you don't get access to them) why would anyone pay several times as much for the same result?<p>- once you get a high amount of tokens flowing into China instead of US companies, they will train on those chats and their rate of improvement will only accelerate, making US models even less attractive over time<p>- the sky-high IPO are dead in the water, since their story of "we will replace a good chunk of all knowledge work in the world, capturing a few % of total global spend relating to it" turns into "we will make a bunch of money out of a few dozen S&P 500 paying for the best, and some pocket money out of whoever uses our overpriced models that are as good as Chinese models" - far less money overall. Losing access to untold billions of investor money certainly won't improve performance for the US labs<p>- all the non-US people start asking themselves why they're funneling money to US corporations who barely share any of the secret sauce compared to Chinese corporations who share plenty when it comes to LLM, including the models themselves (at least for now)<p>- Chinese models have significantly less guardrails, making for better end-user experience<p>- there is a small but non-zero chance Euros get off their asses and invest into AI, making something halfway decent and further fracturing the market which cuts into US profits<p>So what's the benefit here? I thought the Mythos situation was the current admin taking revenge on Antrophic for not kissing the ring, or simply looking for a bribe, but no matter which way I look at it it's a self-own. The only way this would make any sense is if AGI is imminent, which I don't think even the boosters are arguing at this point.<p>Theoretically US could outlaw Chinese models, but I'm not sure what it's supposed to accomplish as the rest of the world certainly won't, especially as long as they release open weights models that you can run without phoning home.
Yea not sure who would put money into an OpenAI or Anthropic IPO at this point. After this episode I promptly bought the hardware I needed to run local models (~$25k) and am extremely impressed. The price tag alone is worth the peace of mind knowing I will always have a locally running LLM that nobody can take away. I don't need Mythos-level intelligence to do 99% of my day to day work; Opus 4.8 was more than enough and I am pretty close to that with the open source models. So what happens when this hardware inevitably gets cheaper and cheaper and people realize they can run the models they actually need locally and without handing all their data over to these companies?<p>Only if you're doing cutting edge research or some highly, highly niche project would you need the frontier models.
You have thought about this longer than anyone who made the decision. Stop caring, it only makes your head hurt.
Reminds of the TikTok ban for security and safety only for it to be sold to a fellow crony. Can't help but see this play going down again. Threaten / Ban / Control / Pressure a technology+company, then get your cronies a seat at the board.<p>The cynic in me suspects they were salivating so much over the Spacex IPO they wanted a finger in anthropics 2026 IPO. Banning fable ~1 day after.
Pretty happy for anything that will throw some sand into the gears of AI development, given all the negative externalities that are becoming apparent, even if the admin is doing it for the usual dumbass reasons.
It’s worse than that.<p>It’s available to large companies. The WH gives them a competitive advantage against the rest of the market.
Does it? That's not even well established yet. These things aren't that good.
I am all against AI (precisely because of all the externalities, like energy consumption and concentration of power and inequalities), but they definitely do give a competitive advantage in <i>many</i> cases.
crony capitalism has accomplished this for decades, unfortunately
> It’s available to large companies<p>... that are friendly to this administration.
Not sure if the USG reserving all superior models for themselves and big corp is sand in AI dev? Inference is clearly constrained, people still want better models. Everyone will still use the best they can afford -- now additionally limited by what the USG allows them to pay for.
> given all the negative externalities that are becoming apparent<p>What specific externalities are you referring to? The only I can think of is high electricity usage, but consuming energy isn't an externality in itself. It depends entirely on how that electricity is generated and whether its environmental costs are already priced.
In the early days of the LLM era, there was lots of talk about how big incumbents, in particular google would be disadvantaged relative to “startups” like OpenAI because of their valuable legacy businesses that could be destroyed if something went wrong. Mainly people thought about big lawsuits but government action is similar.<p>Now OpenAI and Anthropic are big incumbents with Trillion dollar valuations at stake, so they can’t take any risks. Unlike google they don’t really have a thriving primary business to protect though, so without being able to continue to take risks and ignore regulation startup-style, it’s going to be a lot harder for them to stay relevant.
US citizens to remain nonviolent at any cost, issue strongly worded internet comments, and find themselves a little less free every day.
Are you sure about "strongly worded comments"?<p>I got blocked almost immediately for drawing a parallel between the west's war on Russia today, waged through Ukraine, and that of the nazi Germany.<p>I understand one may not like the analogy, to think that it is false or offensive, but no doubt the analogy is there, as well as the analogy between what the "race theory" told about the Slavic people in general, and how Russians are being depicted by the western propaganda today (if they happen to live in Russia or don't have the "right" views).<p>But not let one speak..
Though as soon you liberate yourself from the hypnosis of "you are living in the free world", this becomes logical.
While laughing at the stereotype of French being on the street all the time
I do respect the French. They've proven, time and time again, that if you fuck with the people, heads will roll...
Hey some of them take an entire Saturday off to go to a family friendly demonstration holding witty signs in front of their state capitol!
Watch out, ive read that the US government has incarcerated people for about 50 years for doing that.
The organizers of the No Kings rallies have done infinitely more to achieve political change in the United States than online commentators who make fun of them for being insufficiently cool and edgy. Effective activism is not about feeling superior to the normies who have families and are busy on weekdays.
The onion finds itself in a peculiar spot today
This was coming for a while. For years now there have been job postings for ai safety and not really what people expect. Jobs in places like RAND, funded off DOD grants, exploring the feasibility of building a bioweapon with off the shelf tooling and measuring how far along these tools are. Maybe they figured out it was too easy now, and this is the clamping down we are seeing in response.
This feels like the sort of claim one should provide a source for. Sounds fairly far fetched to me.
How does this account for the Chinese models that are the ones people will use if they can't use OAI's or Anthropic's. Last time I checked, the US president doesn't have the ability to regulate the Chinese models. Considering this, do you still stand by your maybe?
Maybe they are looking into those too and a ban might be on the horizon. President makes their own rules now and controls the supreme court, you can't consider precedent anymore.
Most of them are open weight, ban them how? An executive order can only prohibit their use within/for the federal government, that's it.<p>The administration may try, and the bigger more risk adverse companies will capitulate willingly, but its about as ineffective of a ban as you can get. It'd be like trying to ban running Linux on your home computer because it "might be able be used to conduct cyberattacks"
I really don't think this administration is capable of thinking strategically enough for that. I'm starting to think we lost the AI war about two weeks ago at 5:21.
It's entertaining watching the whole world take steps to reduce reliance on the US and the US throwing arguments for it out like it's candy
What concrete steps have been taken?
Does it matter if they are not concrete? Concrete takes a long time to set.<p>Why make a product and not sell it baffles me. Especially when others are rapidly making products.
Most of the world has already or is in the process of rolling out their own payment network to drop reliance on visa and Mastercard.
Trade is being reconfigured in the midst of Trump's idiotic trade war (and even more idiotic real war) and militaries worldwide, particularly our closest allies, are seeking non-US sources of arms.
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we still have this delusion that we can just pound our chests and throw our weight around. it's clearly not working, it's not helping the citizens, but people still demand this.
> Organizations interested in model access may join the GPT 5.6 waitlist line, hosted at OpenAI's official Palm Spring satellite campus. Line begins at rear entrance with expedited VIP waitlist line options for holders of partnering cryptocurrency tokens. Application fee required for access to venue; waivers available for select US corporations.<p>/s, maybe
So them banning Fable for only non-Americans is what we non-Americans should expect to be the norm going forward? Way to build even more resentment abroad.<p>I'm very pro-west, but at this point okay, I guess the rest of us have to side with China, not because we remotely like it, but because they don't try to be quite so antagonistic to us in everything they do.
>because they don't try to be quite so antagonistic to us in everything they do.<p>Just because the many headed dragon is trying to bite your sailors' heads doesn't mean you should pilot your ship into the whirlpool
Expect the US to sanction non-US-controlled models and put sanctions on individuals, companies and countries that use them? They already do this with other things like oil.
Oil isn't made out of information and cannot be transmitted via a speech act.
Can you cite any examples of a US citizen being sanctioned for <i>importing</i> foreign technology (not exporting)? Please don't cite anything OFAC-related, it does not apply here.
So the frontier will just decisively shift to open Chinese models in the near future, and once that happens, there will be no catching up.
Here’s to hoping that Alibaba (and other Chinese labs) have collected some really good distilled data.
All they had to do is to keep their mouths shut.
Great, so when do we lowly code-serfs get access to it?
Unfortunately we're not in a position where we can promise an exact date, but we expect it to take weeks (not days or months). It's the best coding model we've ever trained and we're bummed we can't release it to everyone yet. When we do launch, we'll share a lot more evals and testimonials and demos that help show what it's good/bad at. Personally hoping that both GPT-5.6 Sol and Fable 5 get broadly released soon so that everyone (myself included) can try them head to head.<p>(I work at OpenAI.)
You don't have to mention details, but is it internally a topic that your CEO hasn't even publicly criticized the Anthropic model freeze and are open ai folks seeing through the Musk/xai game that is in play here?
Pretty pointless question to ask someone posting here under their own name
How is Musk/xai even in the conversation here? It’s a lowly, also-ran AI company, not a “frontier model” company.
The US government is clearly not interested in security of the models - otherwise they would not have only frozen the latest model (that is only a bit better than the previous), but all - and not only for US citizens, but for all people.<p>Given what's happening in the US, I suspect Musk is trying to slow down both companies and damage their funding. His goal is pretty obviously to get an advantage over Anthropic and OpenAI.
you don't think that trump/musk would be underhanded enough to cripple the competition for him to catch up?
any plans to make 1m context standard for codex/gpt 5.x subs as anthropic has with cc and opus for subs? 258k toks is sometimes a little tight, even 500k would help.
You may want to inform your lawyers that promises made in advertising is legally binding in some countries, such as Australia.<p>The "Plus" and higher tiers are advertised as "The latest models" but if <i>that's not true any more</i> then Open AI is opening themselves to investigations from organisations like: <a href="https://www.accc.gov.au/" rel="nofollow">https://www.accc.gov.au/</a><p>Promising "X" for $Y to everyone and then delivering "X" <i>only</i> to the "chosen few" at the detriment of others opens you up to lawsuits because then your product advertisement is a lie.<p>For a comparison, imagine a telco selling "100 Mbps for $20/mo" and then <i>throttling</i> the connection for customers that aren't currently favoured by the Trump administration!
Shutup peasant, you'll get it when we say. And be grateful.
How much are you able to contribute to Trump’s election fund?
i have access and i'm just a regular dude
No one trusts the US government. I’ve been warning of this sovereign risk for years.<p>This will tank the market.<p>See you all on the other side!
This is the last wake up call for EU. After China starts controlling their models, in 5 years EU would be left with archaic technology compared to other major economies
They will be serfs reliant on US and Chinese models to provide protection for their technological infrastructure from AI exploits.
In five years Europe will be buying their inference machines from Apple, like everyone else.
Any future president will know better than to economically hamstring our closest allies and important trading partners.
> We don’t believe this kind of government access process should become the long-term default. It keeps the best tools from users, developers, enterprises, cyber defenders, and global partners who need them.<p>I'm very glad to see them say this explicitly and prominently.
"government needs to step in and regulate ai"<p>"wait, not like that"
Anth/OpenAI simply wanted the government to pull the ladder after them and ban models from China.<p>Seems it blew in their faces and probably the new frontier models will be available only to a select few. Many people predicted this, only a naive person would believe that access to something with these capabilities would be decided by some dude in California.
As entertaining as the sheer Schadenfreude of the situation is, this is terrible for foreign peasants like myself. It no longer makes any sense to pay for America's frontier AI models. I'd be funding the training of models I will never be able to use.<p>GLM 5.2 is competitive with Opus 4.6. If the best model I'll ever get is Opus 4.8, then the choice is clear. I'll miss Opus.
The geopolitical angle of all of this is interesting. Will countries, especially bigger players really just hope they'll get access to something so crucial from the US or China?<p>Probably the EU could pool together funds to create something competitive as being on the mercy of someone else isn't a pleasant place to be.<p>And I wouldn't get so used to the open models. Eventually, if they get good enough, the access to them will also get restricted.
Yes, to the surprise of some HNers, regulations can be good or bad. Just because there are people unhappy with current regulation doesn't automatically mean regulation shouldn't exist at all.<p>BTW this isn't an opinion on the availability of GPT 5.6. I couldn't care less about that.
Usually this format of quip is meant to imply hypocrisy, but that doesn't apply here, so I don't know what you're implying.<p>It's also more typical of a Reddit or YouTube comment, rather than HN, but that's a separate issue.
Classical case of "be careful what you wish for".
Imagine if someone was lobbying for some reasonable regulation (we should regulate drugs, based around clinical trials) and then instead of a transparent system you get purely executive actions with little to no public justification (Trump declares all glp1s illegal no one knows why exactly)<p>Would you levy the same two quote criticism of the reasonable call for regulation?
LLMs have two avenues. One is the realm of self improvement in fields with verifiable output like programming and math. The other is natural language where they can't generalize super well, and therefore need a lot of new training data. Today new data means interactions with an LLM, which is what only the leading chat providers have.
In both cases they will continue to improve and slowly replace white collar jobs.
The biggest bottleneck currently is lack of hearing and seeing capabilities which isolates LLM training data input to entered text mostly. Once they start interacting with people by observing their behavior, almost all knowledge will be trained on. Then they will become adept lawyers and psychologists. Behavioural understanding can be only 5 years away.
After that they will be limited by their navigation , i.e., robotics.
I feel this could turn into a patronage system.<p>Want frontier intelligence? Better not defy the current administration, or your competitors will have access to a better model you could never use.
Brilliant strategy if the goal is to make sure the next major breakthrough happens anywhere but in the US.
Sooo both OpenAI and Anthropic going bankrupt soon?<p>If they can’t freely sell access to their models and Chinese models catch up to Opus 4.8/GPT 5.5 in 6-8 months - then why pay OAI/Anthropic at all?
Worse: we'd be paying US companies to train models we'll never be able to use.
It will be much harder for Chinese models to close the gap than it is to keep the historical 6-9 months behind. Their models' performance are heavily propped up on distillation runs. The capital going to their frontier labs is 10x-100x smaller than US frontier labs.
Basically the signal is that the total market for any US AI company is capped at however big the US market is. As non-US AI converges to Opus 4.8 level parity, whatever is still non-US consumer base shrinks towards zero.
The end game is tokens will be a commodity - doesn’t matter which provider you use.
How many people are going to buy a $10-20K rigs to run these open models?
The calculus is changing for non US, non Chinese users.<p>Hypothetically if the US continues to restrict their frontier models and adds a ban on Chinese/open models then it would to obliterate services like open router. American cloud companies would presumably be blocked from selling capacity to run banned models in this situation.<p>That causes a shortage of compute/gpu resources internationally and an oversupply of non-revenue generating hardware in the US.<p>If that happens then what percent of your salary is worth securing this compute worth? How much does the cost of a data centre chip change? It’s difficult to say.
Small businesses can easily buy them.
You’re talking $100k for entry level hw
I already have
20K won't buy you a rig for GPT 5.5
Why would they? Today you have datacenters in EU offering Chinese and European models from Deepseek v4 Pro and Mistral Medium down to some Qwen 3.6 35B for effectively peanuts compared to Anthropic.
"We believe in broad access, and we plan to make GPT‑5.6 Sol, Terra, and Luna generally available in the coming weeks. As part of our ongoing engagement with the U.S. government, we previewed our plans and the models’ capabilities ahead of today’s launch. At their request, we are starting with a limited preview for a small group of trusted partners whose participation has been shared with the government, before releasing more broadly. During this preview, we will continue testing and coordinating closely with partners as we work toward broader availability. We don’t believe this kind of government access process should become the long-term default. It keeps the best tools from users, developers, enterprises, cyber defenders, and global partners who need them. We are taking this short-term step because we believe it is the strongest path to broader availability in the coming weeks, while we work with the Administration to develop the cyber Executive Order framework and a repeatable process for future model releases."<p>This amount of courting the current administration is pretty scary imo.
> This amount of courting the current administration is pretty scary imo.<p>That’s ironic – I interpreted that paragraph with the opposite slant: positively. If that’s what the government mandates then these companies, in the end, have little choice, so was at least relieved to see them publicly pushing back.
>these companies, in the end, have little choice<p>They absolutely do have a choice, Anthropic and OpenAI could fight it in court. Iran showed Trump is a coward, he wouldn't risk tanking the only industry still keeping the stock market growing.
> Anthropic and OpenAI could fight it in court.<p>They did exactly that with supply chain risk designation, and look what it got them: the administration simply found another more effective way to punish them.
It’s all speculation but I think he would have no qualms about tanking the only industry keeping the stock market growing. But given Kushner’s OAI investments, Trump stands to benefit personally from not tanking the industry.
That's hardly a speculation that he cares very much about the stock market, more than any of his predecessors. It's also why he takes a L instead of going into an adventure in Tehran. Last but not least, "it's the economy, ..." is on everyone's mind, including his
“Wouldn’t it be a shame if we export controlled <i>all</i> of your models and revoked the visas and green cards of all of your non US researchers. You should really reconsider challenging our orders in court. Also remember you have 16% public support and if the president endorsed it a national data center moratorium would pass with bipartisan majorities.”
"Cool, cool, hey, what percentage of economic growth is directly attributable to the growth of our companies again? And thanks for revoking our researchers' permits, enjoy them helping out China!<p>Also, oops, looks like our model weights got leaked on 4chan. How unfortunate."
Do it. Make the Republicans show how much they value the “free market” after all. Trump’s approval rating isn’t much higher.
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I wonder what's going to happen when the administration rolls over to the OtherTeam(tm). If they've established a good relationship with Team A then Team B is automatically going to hate their guts.
NYT's The Daily covered this a few days ago. Has a few interesting details about what went on...<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/04/podcasts/the-daily/trump-ai-regulation.html" rel="nofollow">https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/04/podcasts/the-daily/trump-...</a>
Sam playing the regulatory capture game.
seems pretty smart to me. opens doors and provides opportunities that those that <i>don't</i> court the government will miss out on. of course, if they're principled, that's okay (regardless of which admin it is), but the reality is most companies aren't. gotta get a leg up somehow.
current players in the space love the regulatory capture
Anthropic's fear-mongering and marketing is the reason we have these restrictions in the first place.<p>Despite their virtue signaling, Anthropic is the only major lab that has never released an open weights model, has been caught intentionally nerfing a model after release (Opus 4.6), intentionally and silently degrades performance for suspected competitors and AI researchers, complains incessantly about distillation when everyone is doing it (and after they settled for pirating books), and wants to pull the ladder out from everyone trying to catch up.<p>They're anti-consumer and only concerned with holding the power themselves.
I'm not a fan of Altman, but Anthropic is the worst actor in the space, and I hope they lose.
Hasn't OpenAI being doing it for a while too?<p><a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48465269">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48465269</a>
The common denominator between "GPT-2 is too dangerous to release" and Anthropic is Dario.
Ironically, Google is the company I'd prefer to have the frontier models.
> Anthropic's fear-mongering<p>I mean it's fear-mongering until it isn't. I think people have become a bit too comfortable with dismissing the dangers of misaligned AI as simply "marketing hype".
Anthropic is the lightning rod.<p>Everyone in the space was talking about the automation of work from about day 2. People couldn’t stop themselves from talking about the way it was going to end work, and tech firms were firing people left right and center over AI.<p>Notably, Anthropic is the firm that stuck to its guns with the US Government, meaning they likely believe in their own spiel.
What about openai's fear mongering, or googles, or JP Morgans, or Frank Herbert's, or Arthur C. Clarke's or Samuel Butler's?<p>If you can't envision plausible scenarios where very bad things happen because of a malevolent actor, ChatGPT 6, and a little bad luck - you need to think harder.
Yeah honestly I don't get any of the fear-mongering from any side. If access to intelligence and knowledge is scary to you, that's a you problem.<p>Is it going to change the world? Yes. In more positive ways than negative ways. Websites will continue to get hacked, as they are already getting hacked. People who are afraid of AI are really just afraid of change.
They aren't the current target for right wing hated.
This is pure openai though. I can call anthropic misguided, but openai is just slimy.
Do you feel the same way about FDA approvals?<p>I mean, it seems like common sense - a limited beta test before widespread rollout. I'm not convinced they'll ever come up with a good framework for dealing with the cyber & bio issues, but getting triggered by a beta test rollout seems overboard.
It is common sense, and with literally any other administration in the past century it would seem like a good idea.<p>I have zero confidence that this particular administration has any interest in regulating the industry for the good of the country, much less for the good of humanity. They will use regulation to maximize personal profit for themselves and their cronies, at the expense of the nation. I would not have thought that of any other US administration in the past 100 years.<p>In the longer run, it probably won't matter. If the level of corruption we see currently becomes the norm, then the US is facing much bigger problems than counter-productive industrial policy.
The FDA has incredibly detailed guidelines that need to be followed, and a clear process to be followed. This is none of that.
If you're arguing they should have believed the AI doomer hype years ago and developed decades of regs at the drop of a hat, sure, i guess you can. That's a topic for historians.<p>But, the question today is what to do today, a rolling deployment seems pretty hard to argue with.<p>I'd add, I think it's significant that we haven't seen any administration grandstanding on this specific issue - no Hegseth tweets etc.
The difference is that FDA approvals are a well-defined process with specific and actionable criteria for the release of a new product. Whereas this is the administration running on vibes and favouritism
I'm not going to defend the administration on most things, but your characterization isn't entirely fair. The record seems to suggest that the administration deferred to Amazon and the NSA, which seems sensible.<p>Perhaps you can fault them with not coming up with an objective framework earlier, but that's a different criticism.
150 years ago, Bayer Inc. was mass producing Heroine. 130 years ago Merck and Parke-Davis were mass producing Cocaine(TM) -- all with zero oversight. It would be another 50 years before we even had an FDA and another 50 before the FDA was a reasonably well-oiled machine with a solid set of processes and requirements. Even then, it couldn't really (and can't really today either) prevent these non-US companies (both Heroine and Cocaine were German) from making and selling elsewhere.
US will ban Chinese models and try to get their allies to do the same. Just like they did with Huawei. Alternatively, they'll put up legal roadblocks that open models are unlikely to jump over due to costs or other reasons.<p>Otherwise they're putting US frontier labs at a huge disadvantage by preventing them from recouping costs on their biggest models.<p>How much more will OpenAI and Anthropic models cost when they're the only AI you can legally use?
Why do I get the feeling the administration is doing this to buy a position in the AI companies before they go public.<p>If non US citizens shouldn't have the models - wouldn't that cause both Anthropic and OAI to fire non-citizens?
> wouldn't that cause both Anthropic and OAI to fire non-citizens?<p>They would do what the thousands of other companies do with their tens of thousands of engineers handling ITAR/EAR-regulated software/hardware every day: compartmentalize their workforces, buildings, and access.
because the administration has been repeating the same patterns over pretty much its entire existence.<p>Dont worry though, the rest of the entire world gets access to better chinese models :-), once they get a taste for those the US has lost their little trade game and the future truly belongs to China.<p>Its almost like they are serving it up on a silver platter.<p>ofc they are not, they are just betting all in their models will be better, which is unlikely. (just look at the chinese law and all the names atop of advanced AI papers...)
Source: <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/trump-administration-asks-openai-stagger-release-new-model-information-reports-2026-06-25/" rel="nofollow">https://www.reuters.com/business/trump-administration-asks-o...</a>
Open source is looking great right now
This isn't going to save you unless you're ok being a criminal. There is nothing stopping the government from making open source versions of these models equally controlled.<p>And given how willy-nilly they are operating I see no reason they won't clamp down on open source. All it takes is someone with connections/political contributions wakes up one day and realizes that open source is a threat to their power or bottom line and it will be declared an imminent threat with no oversight or debate.
It’s looking very fragile from a legal point of view. Ownership of compute and software freedom will be next k the chopping block after control of networks that’s occurring at the moment.
It's looking good until you start to see the US gov forcing cloudflare to block hugging face and others.
They'll just make it a crime to run the models unless they authorize you (classifying it as a munition, like they tried to do with encryption), and if your power bill is suspicious you'll find yourself in jail.<p>Any company providing the models will be deemed a threat to national security.<p>No need to block the download.
Citizens were and are free to use the technology (cryptography and every other export-controlled item); your "power bill is suspicious, go to jail" FUD doesn't really track with history.<p>> Any company providing the models will be deemed a threat to national security.<p>Any company providing specifically-controlled models to <i>foreigners</i> would hypothetically be prosecuted.
There's a famous poem called "First They Came" about how slippery this slope can be in a heated political climate.<p>I don't believe for a second this ends with "foreigners", this is about setting up infrastructure for controlling the technology. Foreigners are just the current excuse.<p>Note that TFA mentions they are supposedly hand-picking access to whoever they want, based on whatever criteria they want, already.
Ah, invoking Godwin. "First they came" in 1976 when ITAR was first passed, or maybe "first they came" in the 1940s when we didn't export Proximity Fuzes, right?<p>Countries are free to prevent exports of technology. Equating export controls with the Holocaust is disgusting.
The comparison to cryptography export restrictions is absolutely valid, but is that really favorable?<p>I'd argue that 70's cryptography export bans in hindsight look completely misguided, futile, burdensome and pointless in the end (which is why most of it was lifted/reverted over the last decades).<p>I don't see how AI-models are much different; it's certainly a better comparison than the fuzes, because we're both not at war right now and the underlying principle is already out of the bag.
Cryptography export restrictions absolutely worked until the internet became commonplace, and then they became futile and were removed.<p>Just like every other export restriction on technology: once the actual cat is out of the actual bag, they are often relaxed.<p>The "underlying principles" here are hundreds of billions of dollars in R&D - which is what is required to compete with the frontier models.<p>> not at war right now<p>We weren't technically at war during the Cold War, either.
I did not bring in Godwin, but I guess he's here now :D.<p>I'm more trying to invoke GRRM. This is a Game of Thrones: billionaire CEO's complain about each other to the government to get their competitors blocked/tripped up with acts of fiat, which is what happened with Fable 5.<p>And in the linked post, it says GPT-5.6 access decisions are supposedly just hand picked.<p>The stories about export controls are just songs they sing to the peasants.<p>There are claims that Chinese companies are mining + reselling Claude subscriptions like crazy anyway.
> I did not bring in Godwin<p>Who is the "They" in "First They Came" referring to exactly?<p>> There are claims that Chinese companies are mining + reselling Claude subscriptions like crazy anyway.<p>Which will become a felony with export-controlled models, which is why identity verification is becoming a thing.
Why do they need to "force Cloudflare" to do anything?<p>Why wouldn't they just tell Hugging Face that they need to abide export restrictions directly - they're an American company?<p>Doesn't sound dystopian enough without a second compelled entity?
Because the models don't necessarily need to be hosted on hugging face.
You can create a Model Card repository containing your README and from there you include instructions or a custom script in your repository that allows authenticated users to download the model.<p>> Doesn't sound dystopian enough without a second compelled entity?<p>This is the second snarky question you've made today, the other in relation to the export limit.<p>> Is this just upsetting because it's a product you want to enjoy?<p>Both are assumptions you are making and don't provide much in the way of constructive conversation, if I'm wrong about something it's alright to just point it out.
seriously, ordered more hardware this week, as it gets more dystopian every week<p>wondering when more people will raise their voice and get engaged
It's the year of the open source AI model is the new 'It's the year of the Linux Desktop'. It's not and never will be for 90% of people
That’s not true at all. While not as good as proprietary models they are still very good and can do A LOT, certainly more than their cost would make it seem.<p>It’s only a matter of time before companies start to acknowledge the huge cost of tokens and look for a cheaper alternative with basic cost-benefit analysis.<p>My F500 company is getting local infrastructure going to host open models and I’m sure many will just switch to bedrock + the best open models.<p>It’s foolish for companies to let three companies dictate the price of tokens, I just don’t think they are aware of this now by and large.
GLM 5.2 is competitive with Opus 4.6.
Well if us gov would block people from using windows or macos, then it may well be.
Cyberpunk 2077 is such an accurate picture of the future. Megacorps will own and control everything, we will be lucky to get the leftover scraps.
CP 2077 belongs to a 80s franchise, it was futuristic back then. Since the 2000s, cyberpunk the 80's genre is an accurate representation of the present and past. The future looks bleaker now, with fewer romanticized decorations like flying cars and social dynamics being worse than what the cyberpunk grandfathers imagined. For example "low life" being way more controlled which is exactly what both masses and elites wanted.<p>In retrospect it's obvious that the cyberpunk authors were mistakenly projecting certain parts of their present into the future (relative freedom of the masses and increasing rate of "traditional" engineering), and didn't consider second order effects and political action/reaction.
The new normal for the next decade: You must protect the public from us and all others, and we are your closest ally so we make your rules for us and our competition. This wasn’t a lucky outcome. They laid the groundwork years ago with the AI “ethics” movement and this was the play all along.
The downside of marketing your product as being too powerful to be safe is that people start taking it seriously. I’m surprised there isn’t more discussion about the contradiction. If it really is the end of labor and a deadly weapon then export controls actually make sense.<p>So which position should the government take? The one it’s doing? Or that LLMs aren’t actually key to national security.
Last year Tim Cook gifted Trump a custom, one-of-a-kind glass plaque with a 24-karat gold base [1]. (Cook needed a policy outcome that would protect Apple's supply chain costs and avoid a costly 100% tariff on certain chips and components.)<p>You may have to make similar offerings if you want to use the latest version of ChatGPT.<p>[1] <a href="https://www.youtube.com/shorts/0O9QhwIkj5w" rel="nofollow">https://www.youtube.com/shorts/0O9QhwIkj5w</a>
While purely speculation, I believe the same thing would have happened, albeit even sooner, under a Harris administration. Government intervention was inevitable and it will have to be worked out through the law.
Remember when you could only get the Netscape version with good encryption if you were in the US, because the government had classified encryption as a munition? And that the rest of the world had no trouble matching or exceeding that level of encryption?<p>Is this going to be like that?
I'm finding it extremely hard not to have a cynical perspective on all of this. There's an idea that I've been mapping onto this whole this, which could be called something like <i>effective knowledge</i>. Regular old knowledge is just information, or access to information. <i>Effective</i> knowledge is the integration of all that information into an understanding that can be acted upon. That requires things like time, money, and involves the usual socioeconomic hurdles that have separated people into groups like "laborers" and "knowledge workers". Sure, in theory "anyone" could read textbooks and learn, but only a select few have the time, money, mentors in their lives, and so forth to <i>really</i> do that.<p>The rise in capability of LLMs over the past year has basically removed a lot of these boundaries for people. Learning, building, and experimenting is a lot easier when you have a capable partner like Claude to help you along the way. Claude doesn't always get everything right, and you have to be a skeptic, but it's a <i>lot</i> better than nothing.<p>When I see the government restricting access to LLMs (or Anthropic as they were doing with Mythos before the whole Fable debacle), I basically just see the same old pattern of the ruling class moving to protect their advantage by keeping the great masses in ignorance. Broadening access to LLMs (i.e. effective knowledge) would put everyone on a more level playing field. But we can't have that, because politics, nations, the economy, blah blah reasons reasons. Guess utopia will just have to wait a bit longer.<p>But then again, this feels a lot like cryptography export controls. Those controls are in place, but I doubt anyone really thinks they work or make much of a difference. Software is not like nuclear weapons, and a data center is a much smaller lift than a Uranium enrichment facility. So maybe this is just a temporary roadblock. But let me tell you, I sure am ready for it to feel more like the government is working for (not against) the people.
I'm waiting for that government subcommittee hearing where they are supposed to decide if my new cpu design is big endian or little endian. And they can't seem to decide if it should be coded in octal or hexadecimal. There's a separate committe deciding if the cpu clocke's phase 2 should be 90-degrees or 180 degrees different. There's a special group trying to decide how may accumulators the cpu should have. And there's a markdown already going on to decide if the flags register should have a separate flags for republicans and democrats.
> markdown<p>Hey now, this is Government we're talking about. There's no markdown, it must be MS Word .docx in Times New Roman, emailed back and forth.
I guess Orpheus fined 50% of Eurydice's soul for early withdrawal attempt - No take backsies is clearly in the Contract.Upheld.But Orpheus gets a coupon for free ressurection (Void in thrace:There can be sage).
Whether or not you assume bad intent of the government here, the amount of money the export control on Fable has cost Anthropic has to be unbelievably high<p>Eg I expect I would have paid more than 2x per day what I spent the past few weeks, and if gpt 5.6 comes out and is competitive that's going to absolutely gain market share.<p>An unbelievably costly turn of events for them
OpenAI/Anthropic are begging to be restricted because it's great marketing and it creates a precedent to permanently ban open weights models. The problem is nobody in government believes in/cares about commodity pricing of truly open AI and how much it could help the world economy and prosperity.<p>Companies like Microsoft have been asleep at the wheel in terms of security for decades and now there's a model that can identify where they've been careless. That's not a "nuclear bomb level threat" or whatever Anthropic wants to call it, it's reckless carelessness by the existing companies.
To all of those thinking that GLM/OSS will save you — keep in mind that the model size needed to compete here likely requires an NVL72 or similar — 72GPU dedicated infra to run a hosted model. This will almost certainly get regulated by the gov’t as well, and even if not so there will only be a handful of companies that can afford it.
I think there can be smarter ways to fix security issues right. Like you let AI loose in a gated environment fix all things it flags and than release the model ? Any new changes you make you now anyway have the AI vet it ?
Do we know how much choice OpenAI has with the arrangement? They call it a "request", but could they have been ordered directly?
The irony to have the EU criticised for regulation on one side but complete government control of access on the other.
Will these ad hoc decisions by the U.S. government, without law or clear process, not hurt the coming IPO's of Anthropic and OpenAI?
So as a European, I'm being blocked from all new models apparently. I'm a big fan of using Claude Code for my sideprojects and for those I don't really care about sharing context. Is there aything that comes close to Claude Code and is still affordable?
Damn. This is the second post today that just disappeared from the top of the landing page. This is 100% manipulated.
> while AI companies and the administration work out a longer-term plan for regulation on the sector.<p>It’s not really the executives job or role to create new regulatory structures. If they want something durable, that lasts more than one administration, they need actual laws passed by Congress.
"All publicity is good publicity"<p>Whilst this policy is driving countries around the world to develop new AI strategies as USA cannot be relied upon, on the plus side for OpenAI, the publicity of this will help drive customer sales.
The rest of the word at some point will increase chinese AI company. I am using some of their services and for many task they are good enough . It can be a winning strategy for a short period and a disaster in long term. Xi and China i think , are very happy of these decisions. They are building their model and their hardware. Even if for now it is subpar ( i don't know, it is an hypotesys), money that us will lose for this choice will make Chinese products improve a lot .
Well, as long as the government is deciding, that’s alright then. The US government is a paragon of incorruptible integrity and even-handed, thoroughly considered reasoning. We’re in good hands, folks.
Does anyone else think this is all just FUD, smoke, mirrors and marketing hype? "Look, our model is so good that the government told us to stop" "Our model is so good that the government is going to control who has access to it".<p>Come on.<p>I think occam's razor can be applied here. And like everything else, its about money. I don't know exactly what the play will be here, but this doesn't sound like this technology is too powerful and more like billions of $ lost investments need to be made up somehow without the people getting annoyed about the government bailing these guys (AI companies, investors, etc.) out.
Fair enough, i'm off to use GLM. Let's see how this plays out US gov
Where’s YN calling this a “marketing stunt”?
It's pretty easy to solve. You just keep pushing new versions of Opus 4.8....
This post isn't even on the landing page for some reason.
It's called ghosted, shadow banned, too sensitive / shitshow; Basically a multiplier of 0.1 is added to this post's ranking, or similar, and it will need thousands of upvote instead of hundreds to show.<p>It's commonly applied silently to posts that simply don't look good or become a nightmare to manage the narrative of. It's a healthy way to manage a community while looking transparent.<p>I think it's sucky and cheap, but at the same time it's also the best solution.
> We don’t believe this kind of government access process should become the long-term default.<p>Really glad to see some reasonably prominent pushback against this government overreach.<p>The information has been reporting that the government wants to individually approve which companies get access and when.<p>Imagine the wonderful opportunities for corruption and influence peddling, not to mention, excluding any companies that don’t support Trump
Non-paywall: <a href="https://archive.is/PCQQl" rel="nofollow">https://archive.is/PCQQl</a>
Great so we just need to wait for China to catch up I guess
Here's an unpopular opinion: this might be the only way to deploy advanced models. A lot of people compare advanced AI with nuclear weapons. Creating white lists of users that are allowed to use advanced AI feels wrong. It feels against everything that the Constitution stands for. That men are created equal and they are free to pursue their happiness. Now they are free to pursue that happiness only if the US Government signs off on that. It hurts to only think of that. But I'm afraid there's no other way. These models, in the wrong hands, can result in unfathomable devastation.<p>How do I know? Dario Amodei said that when he explained why Anthropic has to limit the US Government's usage of its models [1]:<p><pre><code> > Some uses are also simply outside the bounds of what today’s technology can safely and reliably do. Two such use cases [...]: Mass domestic surveillance. Fully autonomous weapons.
</code></pre>
If the US Government can't be trusted with such uses, then how can you trust millions or billions of users with arbitrary usage?<p>[1] <a href="https://www.anthropic.com/news/statement-department-of-war" rel="nofollow">https://www.anthropic.com/news/statement-department-of-war</a>
They can only slow down open models and open weight models from getting as good as Mythos/Fable and GPT 5.6. Then what?<p>They will all get distilled, down trained, and the smaller models will get better too.
I can't tell if this is bad for the big labs, or good because it means they now have an excuse for not showing meaningful progress in the lead ups to their IPOs.
What would that IPO look like when they can’t sell their product to users and are hard capped on how much money they can earn?
It'll only be good if they do get to release it to the general public in a format that is not overly nerfed.<p>If they don't get to release, its bad. It paints a picture that we are largely stuck with current capabilities for a while and the party is over. All those promises of "you'll get to fire everyone" now go concretely unfulfilled.<p>Their entire valuations rely on the assumption of continued massive breakthroughs in intelligence and capabilities, and having revenue on part with taking a share of the GPD provided by white collar workers as they get replaced.
It will reduce usage and spur investments into competitors from the EU and likely other large nations, most likely hurting these upcoming IPOs.
David Sacks has been silent for a long time.. So much for being the big “AI czar”. Does he have any influence left in the government?
There is an assumption that everyone is making here - that China will not do the same. It is entirely possible, that China restricts their frontier models - as and when they are developed - to only Chinese citizens. And India follows along.<p>IMO AI is different from everything else. It is a weapon as potent as nuclear. It is only natural that it be treated as one.
This makes no sense, it only will embolden any attempts by china and other countries to move away from depending on US AI tech
What are the odds this is going to become another avenue for grift - magically any companies the trump family invests in are going to get access. Any companies that aren't sufficiently 'loyal' to the regime will have to wait or may never get access.
Wowzers. It's been some time since export controls were something i'd see in software. Interesting times.
Can anyone explain to me (a non US citizen) how this won't be found to be unconstitutional (eventually)?. I would think it falls under freedom of expression. And given the attempted classification of encryption as a munition that failed, I don't see how this can possibly last?
Well it seems both Anthropic and OpenAI are consciously choosing to do this, which means, for now, neither plan on suing. So if no one sues, how could it be unconstitutional?
constitutional rights only apply to us citizens i believe
Less money to US AI tech. This could be good long term to move us away from them.
related:<p><a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/brief-history-book-burning-printing-press-internet-archives-180964697/" rel="nofollow">https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/brief-history-book-bu...</a>
Without access to leading models, I think open source LLM development will also slow down. I'm not sure which portion of their success right now is due to RLAF and distillation but it's certainly not zero.
what's weird, is my employees abroad (outside the US) have access to Anthropic Fable .... so what exactly did we prevent by limiting United States citizens from having access ....
never thought being a script kiddie would make me smart, but here we are in 2026.<p>i had one place, they were using all these shady pay with a credit card for "points" to do these web gui things that were... basically nmap, dig, etc?<p>so i wrote up a small shell script that took in the servers our (often nonprofit) clients wanted scanned...<p>and so we could lower our costs and free up analyst time -- but sadly they often found out they had out of date windows boxen they couldn't afford to fix, and we'd have to settle for getting them onto MFA, using password managers and basics like that.<p>people overvalue AI imho. people are getting weak, they don't teach themselves the concepts that would allow them to make best use of AI.<p>anyways, i think the type of person freaking out is the same who's been cutting and pasting from stack overflow rather than learning enough to grab a book or read up on a library to get the needful done.<p>but hey, what do i know? i'm just some freak on hacker news<p>(proudly writing w/o AI :-))
Does this mean that the government will compensate OpenAI for lost revenue?
So I guess the Chinese government will decide what model I use next
Oh no, the powerful tool that can be used for good or evil is restricted by the people whose job it is to restrict dangerous things! This is the end of freedom! We're all doomed!
Local AI and open-weight models are becoming something to no longer ignore. I've started a community around this @tokenstead on X and tokenstead.ai YouTube and much more coming. DGX Spark on route, RTX 5090s and much more exciting builds. We need to have AI sovereignty!
U.S. government will decide who will feed the chinese competition.
This will be a thing of the past sooner than you expect.
In a scenario where some breakthrough in fusion energy will be discovered I envision:<p>- instant, total world war if it's not coming from USA<p>- let's finish all oil's reserve first otherwise
"for the benefit of all humanity *"<p>* with big pockets
It seems like sota ai will go the way of reserve antibiotics
I’m generally prefer republicans, but not in favor of this!
Ah, so the specter of Biden doing it was bad, but this administration putting into practice is great.
It's good that we can be sure the policy will be fairly applied for the best of reasons and any donations for new ballrooms, ponds, jumbos etc immediately before access is granted will be entirely coincidental.
Is anyone in favor of this?
MAGA
Amazon, NSA, apparently a few other 3 letter agencies around the world, but the lattermost probably did not expect access to their agencies would be limited but appreciate that they aren't going to be exposed as security frauds by just anyone
Yes. I could not possibly be more radicalized against the current administration, and I'm in favor of this. Future models will be even more dangerous than the current ones and we must build processes now to control their release when necessary. I don't like how informal this process is, and I absolutely despise the people running it, but I strongly prefer it to no process.
Thanks to the US government for helping kill Anthropic and OpenAI by preventing them from recouping any R&D money from new models. Doing god's work.
>“We don’t believe this kind of government access process should become the long-term default. It keeps the best tools from users, developers, enterprises, cyber defenders, and global partners who need them,” the blog post said. “We are taking this short-term step because we believe it is the strongest path to broader availability in the coming weeks.”<p>Arent these the same clowns who keep saying that the government needs to regulate AI to protect society [from their competitors] or whatever? And im not just talking about back when they used to be a nonprofit, Altman was still using that line post-sellout too.
For access email: jlarson@openai.com
So much for the party of small government.
Just seems like gatekeeping for graft and favors / corruption.
Gotta say, I'm really annoyed that the corruption of the government is directly responsible for what new toys I'm allowed to play with.
Top 2 comments fail to acknowledge the elephant in the room.<p>It's not about the tech. We have a corrupt administration gatekeeping two powerful models for companies set to go public soon.<p>I bet the models are powerful.<p>I also bet there is a lot of money being exchanged, too, for keeping the bubble big, so certain people will profit.<p>Trump doesn't care about the people. He cares about himself.
Looks like China wins the AI race
So, where's the export restrictions?
This will be the end of the US's short-lived AI supremacy. OpenAI and Anthropic are already wildly unprofitable, cutting off the world-wide income stream is just fucking bad business.
Those taking issue with the clear deference to the current U.S. administration would seemingly prefer it be the exact same degree of preemptive compliance and collaboration, just done behind closed doors as it was with the Biden administration. The sausage is apparently far more palatable when you only find out about the overreach, pressuring, implied threats, and censorship years later in House Judiciary Committees. Or even better if you don’t through use of NSL gag orders or implied threat of lawfare!
+1 point to China!<p>In all seriousness, I can’t believe the AI firms are abiding by this peacefully. If I truly loved my company, and I felt we were on the bleeding edge of incredible, life changing products, why would I allow my company to be set up for failure by remaining somewhere that clearly wants control over the sovereignty.<p>The US gov sees these AI companies as bartering power, not as innovation. Wouldn’t you as a parent always want what’s best for your child, not for yourself?<p>It also feels like they can’t just relocate out of the country, as the administration will surely sanction anyone from business within the country again. These firms are so over inflated with evaluations and opex, they’ve dug themselves into a corner.<p>This is not to say regulation does not exist in any other country, but it’s clear now after what’s happening at Anthropic + OAI that the US gov has taken these companies hostage.<p>This is only further playing into the hands of open source and the outside models; the US gov is going to be to blame for when they all lose the race to low cost/free.
> +1 point to China!<p>Which, like the US, uses export controls when it finds them advantageous: <a href="https://nam.org/china-imposes-export-controls-on-u-s-minerals-defense-firms/" rel="nofollow">https://nam.org/china-imposes-export-controls-on-u-s-mineral...</a><p>> In all seriousness, I can’t believe the AI firms are abiding by this peacefully. If I truly loved my company, and I felt we were on the bleeding edge of incredible, life changing products, why would I allow my company to be set up for failure by remaining somewhere that clearly wants control over my sovereignty.<p>So, locate in China, where every company of importance is essentially required in practice to maintain ties to the CCP?<p>I personally think the US has gone too far with its use of export controls and sanctions as a political tool, but it's foolish to believe that it's different anywhere else on the planet.<p>In China, it has even been reported that top AI talent is restricted from overseas travel.<p><a href="https://www.thinkchina.sg/technology/china-tightens-control-over-ai-experts-private-firms-will-backfire" rel="nofollow">https://www.thinkchina.sg/technology/china-tightens-control-...</a><p>Bottom line: if you're working on cutting-edge technology that is deemed to be of critical national security importance and has military or dual use implications, you're going to be a hostage no matter where you go.
You wrongly assumed I implied these firms relocate to China. We are all aware of how China operates and controls its assets.<p>AI has long existed in many countries around the world without this type of behavior from the government. Deepmind in the UK, Mistral in France, DeepL in Germany - the governments don’t seem to be forcing employees to get their deploys approved by a government official.<p>My argument is that the US gov does not like that these companies have too much influence which they do not feel they can mandate. It’s slowing the entire country down at a very critical sink or swim inflection point in this tech.
> You wrongly assumed I implied these firms relocate to China. We are all aware of how China operates and controls its assets.<p>Then why write "+1 point to China!" and not "+1 point to the UK, France and Germany"?<p>> Deepmind in the UK, Mistral in France, DeepL in Germany - the governments don’t seem to be forcing employees to get their deploys approved by a government official.<p>The UK, France and Germany all have their own export controls rules, so if a company in these countries comes up with a model that those governments deem to be of significant enough importance, they also have the means to exercise greater control over them as well.<p>The latest models from Anthropic and OpenAI are said to be the most advanced in the world. Agree or disagree, like it or not, the powers that be in the US determined that there is sufficient justification to control their export. Under long-standing and perfectly legal export control laws, the US has the ability to issue such orders.<p>In the case of Anthropic, the company chose to reverse providing public access to Fable because it said it could not comply with the requirement that non-US nationals (even those residing in the US) be restricted from accessing Fable.<p>> It’s slowing the entire country down at a very critical sink or swim inflection point in this tech.<p>You might or might not be right, but I think many people would argue that "move fast and break things" is risky when it comes to AI. I can't say that the current administration is genuinely concerned about the broad societal impacts of AI but if the effect of their brand of greater oversight is that companies like Anthropic and OpenAI have to slow down, it might not be a bad thing for humanity.
I think it’s pretty clear why they’re abiding by this:<p>-the US is the only place where you can raise the kinds of money you need to run a lab like this.<p>-a government that won’t let you sell products to customers abroad will probably object even more to you <i>moving</i> abroad.<p>Even if you made the move abroad, that government might no longer let you access US data centers.<p>-This basically affects OpenAI and Anthropic, which make the only LLMs most people consider frontier nowadays. Since most open weights models rely on distillation of frontier models, it may genuinely entrench those companies more.<p>It may be playing into the hands of open source OAI/Anthropic dependencies start to look more dangerous, but it also makes building better OSS models harder.<p>The advantages the AI labs rely on might be less durable than a proprietary process in industrial manufacturing, but it’s still meaningful.<p>I think the bigger reckoning will come from a different angle: tokens will eventually need to cover cost.<p>That will likely mean multiplying prices compared to today. And companies already complain now!<p>Model orchestration and smaller models that can run locally or cheaply will become more important in my opinion.<p>Right now, you can still default to GPT/Claude and it’s kind of fine, but that will have to change.
The elephant in the room is that the US AI firms should not be as valuable as they are. They should not require the sort of capital they are seeking, the amount of employees, the amount of offices and resources..but they are so steeped in investor interests - why stop being fed?<p>Many Americans want AI to fail. The US gov wants to control AI. The AI companies are running out of things to do, and are shipping product after product after product to keep the perceived productivity narrative alive.<p>At this rate I would not be surprised to see an OAI/Anthropic merger just to throw everything AI the US has to offer to the global markets.
> I can’t believe the AI firms are abiding by this peacefully.<p>They literally asked for this.
> AI firms are abiding by this peacefully<p>What are they going to do about it? Might makes right.<p>They've already done what little they can: pull access to their models wholesale rather than adopt an export compliance regime.
All these dorks think they're Iron Man. Guess they're on the Civil War stage of his character development.
Age verification for social media.<p>Approval lists for AI models.<p>Two sides of the same coin. The administration is taking the opportunity now on the back of fear mongering done by the labs. The labs get regulatory lock-in, the govt gets surveillance. Everybody (that matters) wins.
There's a huge difference between 'pro market' and 'buddies with some big businesses' and this administration is making it very clear, at least to those who would see.<p><a href="https://blog.supplysideliberal.com/post/47857230937/luigi-zingales-pro-market-vs-pro-business" rel="nofollow">https://blog.supplysideliberal.com/post/47857230937/luigi-zi...</a>
Give it a year, open source will catch up, then things will get very interesting.
Of course the idiots in Washington have bought the hype - hook, line, and sinker.
Soon there will be a new safety industry reselling access and/or certification and compliance, oh wait there is already ...
It's quite funny to think about the reaction this would be getting from people like David Sacks, if it was literally anybody except Trump.
huge momentum for local and open-source LLMs
That feeling when you’re a frontier AI company and your marketing team is just way too good.
now gov will decide, absolute shi<p>i see opensource model is big win for me.
You know what? Fine. This delays the OpenAI/Anthropic/etc hegemony and creates more space for local LLM adoption and development.<p>My company is <i>very</i> interested in local LLMs even just to cut back on codex spend. I imagine a lot of other businesses are, too. With the recent developments in open weight models, it seems like it's only a matter of time before they're frontier level, and any added delay in OpenAI and Anthropic models being publicly available is just more reason for businesses and individuals to try them out.<p>Just like the Iran war accelerating fossil fuel abandonment, this administration can't even do the <i>wrong</i> thing without fucking it up. I say we take this win.
Can we just go ahead and shut the US down right now? We had a good run, but we've clearly been moving in the wrong direction for almost as long as I've been alive.
<a href="https://archive.ph/d4llF" rel="nofollow">https://archive.ph/d4llF</a>
Honest question: for those working with those models on offensive security, how much does this move make sense?<p>I am asking because I have seen a growing number of stories about organizations getting owned by either raw mismanagement of security, supply chain attacks that are often a failure at the ecosystem level, npm, etc.<p>I am not really seeing from what we hear about the use of AI for penetration as a threat yet. The growing problem with security seems to be more at the management and ecosystem layers.<p>Not many story that netfilter, ipfw or pf got owned by one of those frontier models.<p>A lot of stories that organisation X and Y left keys on a public repo for months.
A big problem is "U.S. government" muddies the conversation because of how undefinable and large that group is.<p>Who is deciding who gets to use GPT-5.6? Which organizations? Which leaders?<p>Focus on that to have a clearer conversation. Without doing this it's like jerking each other off to stroke our egos. You might as well as say "The World will decide who gets to use GPT-5.6"
it would be one thing if congress passed a bunch of (probably inadequate) legislature that every AI company had to follow to operate in the US. it's another when it's a faceless/nameless group of people probably deciding arbitrarily based on mood and bribes.
> Which leaders?<p>Trump and his cronies.<p>Nobody else in the US Gov is so openly corrupt <i>and</i> has the unitary executive power to ban the products of privately held companies for sale without there being a public record (i.e.: an act of congress).
This isn’t just about AI: they do not want you to privately use computers at all, in a way that cannot be surveilled. They want to extinguish all forms of general purpose computing and restrict you to walled gardens of apps and all code written via AI with the government-in-the-middle. It will be illegal to write code by hand, only people with “bad intentions” do that, because otherwise, why not just use AI like a sane person?
How is this not a First Amendment issue?!
Will be hard to become profitable if you have a limited customer base
Wow.. Okay so it's official now that the playbook is "we will try to prevent anyone who we don't like to use advanced tech".<p>I understand if its military hardware and software, that's the property of the US government however this is the property of a private company.. Now seemingly being commandeered and issued at the will of the government, sounds very Russian/Chinese to me.<p>Is there a precedent for this before in a democratic country ?
The overwhelming majority of export-controlled items are made by private corporations: the US government itself makes exceedingly little in comparison.<p>The missiles Raytheon makes are export-controlled too, and they're not somehow "property of the US government" - this isn't China.<p>Is this just upsetting because it's a product you want to enjoy?<p>> Is there a precedent for this before in a democratic country ?<p>Try every weapons system, encrypted radio system, FPGAs with high-bandwidth transceivers, lithography equipment, etc. etc. etc. There's plenty of precedent.
> Is this just upsetting because it's a product you want to enjoy?<p>No, infact I'm a proponent of open models and being able to run them locally, it just feels strange that a consumer product would be under the same restrictions as military grade equipment and tech which is specifically designed for warfare.<p>> Try every weapons system, encrypted radio system, FPGAs with high-bandwidth transceivers, lithography equipment, etc. etc. etc. There's plenty of precedent.<p>If it's the same equivalent then my issue is just that, it feels like trying to restrict the useage of RSA because it could be used by bad actors.
> If it's the same equivalent then my issue is just that, it feels like trying to restrict the useage of RSA because it could be used by bad actors.<p>RSA was practically impossible to control (an implementation is what, 100 lines in any language?) and the global benefits outweighed the cost and futility associated with restrictions.<p>AI laboratories with hundreds of billions of dollars in funding aren't cropping up in every country in the world, and their products and services <i>are</i> easily controlled and not easily replicated.
This is where AI doomerism has taken us. I also hate LLM abuse, but pretending that they are going to destroy humanity has opened the door for eventual police state level control over computing. It’s hard enough fighting off the “think of the children” idiots, now we have to push back against hyperventilating technophobes who think the world is going to end unless we get computing <i>under control</i>. All while the political elites rub their hands in anticipation.
That was always the playbook<p>> Is there a precedent for this before in a democratic country ?<p>I'd argue US is not very democratic country given how many of what govt does goes against people's wishes. Same as UK
This will be exactly as effective as the BBC's efforts to ensure only UK taxpayers are allowed to stream Doctor Who from BBC servers on Christmas morning.
That is why running local models is going to be very important...This crooked administration doing crooked things. Nothing to see here.
This is for the preview period, but it's not a good sign. Opus 4.8 may be the last frontier model available to the masses...
From US companies that is.
If it's the case then software engineers still have the same place as pre-ClaudeCode era, because 4.8 and 5.5 are damn good at algo but notoriously bad at architecture and coordination.
Yes, we will get a crippled version of Mythos, 5.6 and future models, while the chosen few will have unfettered access.
Thousands of American engineers all over the country (most of whom probably aren't on Hacker News) work with ITAR/EAR-regulated software and hardware every single day: these regulations are really not difficult to abide if you're a citizen.
Saltman prbly had to beg and bribe for this. imagine fable getting banned and this just going though. That would be like accepting defeat.
Great now we're priced out of getting good enough hardware to run the top open sourced models locally.<p>It's a matter of time before the Chinese models are banned.
Everything is a rich man's trick.<p>This is rich social classes claiming more for themselves.<p>Someone convince me otherwise?
It's ok I will wait for the Chinese resellers :)<p>Thank you Chinese Robin Hoods
Something about this makes my stomach churn… This is not a good sign for the future of the USA.<p>I hope the country doesn’t become the new USSR.
What a party pooper the current US government is... I'm not excited right now at all, while normally a new GPT release would be so much fun to test out.
Can't the AI companies spare a small investment in Trump coin to ease the process?
Related:<p><i>OpenAI Leans Toward Waiting Until Next Year for IPO</i><p><a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48678873">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48678873</a>
crazy times
It seems like this was entirely caused by Dario (and Anthropic as a whole)? When you run around marketing something as a "super weapon", the government may actually take you seriously?<p>We obviously can't A/B test this... but if Dario hadn't been doing that, would any of this been happening right now?
Hard to say "entirely" when you also have a movement of people and non-profits who are also pushing for more regulation.
Altman has done his fair share of "doom-trolling", claiming that his products are going to inevitably disrupt the global order in ways that demand government support and intervention. The entire industry has been marketing this way for years now.
> It seems like this was entirely caused by Dario<p>No it doesn't.<p>> When you run around marketing something as a "super weapon"<p>That's one interpretation of what was said that ignores a lot of what was said.<p>So yes, if you ONLY read the headlines, sure. So, an ignorant and stupid government would read it that way. But the reality was, like many things, more nuanced.<p>However, I need not blame the messenger because the current government is led by idiotic morons.<p>Let's put this another way: either this is valid on behalf of the government, in which case he was right ot say something. Or you disagree with this, in which case, you can only blame the government for ignornig what was actually said.
Again, if you think we the people are getting access to AGI you're a fool.<p>These models aren't even that smart and they are already trying to control them and lock them down to a handful of people.<p>Then these executive and VC wonder why people hate AI and are against them.<p>Because the future is heading toward intelligence for the rich and you stuck with whatever model they want you to have.<p>The next step is banning open source models.<p>The future is not looking so bright if these models are already going locked down to whoever the government what's to have them.<p>This is no different than the government banning books because they don't want you to learn.
It's different, because most books don't contain the nuclear codes or have real impacts on national security.<p>The way I see so many comments on the internet hating any sort of AI regulation, is young juveniles cursing at the installation of stoplights as they rev their engines. The world is bigger than just you, and not only you matter. Reasons exist for doing things.
So you okay with the government banning open source models, and making a list of who can have access to intelligence based on who they like?<p>That just doesn't seem like a world I want to live in. I prefer a world where everyone has the same access to the same intelligence.<p>Go back to the beginning of the internet, you would be for limiting the internet access to those the government likes?<p>I was around in the early days of the internet when Google dorking was a thing, you could prompt Google and find exploits into hundreds and thousands of websites, servers, ect including government website.<p>This isn't about national security, it about power and controlling it.
fake news
it kinda seems like openai is doing this willinglyy and not challenging it. if they weren't doing this willingly, how would this be legal? has congress already passed a law giving the executive branch regulatory powers like this?
So, that DeepSeek thing, you are saying it's not that bad?
GLM-5.2 is currently the best open-weight model for development. It's not as good as the current American SOTA models, but if you wrote code with US SOTA models four months ago, you can write code with GLM-5.2 today.<p>DeepSeek 4 is a good model for many tasks, but I think it currently lacks the post-training required to become a genuinely great coding model.
never would I have thought China would win that easily<p>GLM on LLM Asics is going to be amazing, US hosted or otherwise
The US is turning into China. LOL!<p>Censorship. Surveillance. (Hi, PLTR!)
I started to have the opinion that the Chinese models would crash the AI bubble simply because they are an order of magnitude cheaper and almost as intelligent.<p>But if the government can simply ban models from the market? especially given how much the admin loves the idea of Tariffs? Knowing Trump the chance of this happening is 99.9%<p>We will all be stuck paying $50/mtok to Anthropic (And by we I mean only Big Tech will be able to afford tokens). The rest of the competition will be outcompeted by super intelligent machines. And AI CO’s /Big Tech will take over the economy.
"A system of government marked by centralization of authority under a dictator, a capitalist economy subject to stringent governmental controls, violent suppression of the opposition, and typically a policy of belligerent nationalism and racism"
"...and the land of the free!"
It's fascinating to watch the US government paint China as the new bogeyman and utterly fail in it's policy of containment.<p>The first obvious conclusion is that China has been utterly vindicated to keep US tech giants out of China. Some have a token presence but it's clear that the Chinese government will never let a US tech government "win" in any domestic market. It will always be a Chinese company. Obligatory Silicon Valley [1].<p>The second is that, to that end, IMHO the US government made an error blocking the sale of high-end chips (particularly NVidia) to China. Why? Because it's created a captive market for Chinese chip manufacturing. Huawei now has billions in potential sales that might've otherwise gone to chips produced in Taiwan and South Korea.<p>Third, the US can somehow ban a Dutch company (ASML) from selling EUV to China. This has forced China to replicate it and they will within a few years. The interesting part of this is that all it really takes is throwing money at a few key researchers and engineers who worked for ASML. It really is using the mechanics of the Western economic system against itself.<p>Last, the US government will try and make US tech giants "own" or "win" AI. And they will fail because the Chinese government will make sure they fail. How? By releasing ever-better open models for free. I believe China considers this a matter of national security to not be beholden to US tech giants (and thus the US government).<p>The ironic thing to me is that the US is doing what the West accuses China of doing with corporate control. I'd say the actual difference is that Chinese companies are beholden to the state whereas the US government is basically 5 companies in a trenchcoat. The US wants to mint trillionaires at the expense of literally everybody else. China believes society should benefit from something they collectively make possible.<p>Anyway, we've been here before. Remember the crypto export ban of the 1990s and 2000s? Did that prevent higher-quality encryption from being used overseas? No. This won't help either.<p>[1]: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Km5XQxRrQvw" rel="nofollow">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Km5XQxRrQvw</a>
Orbans Hungary Playbook. The real headline should be “Donald Trump gets to decide”.
Thankfully only American content went into building it, or else that would be a total douchebag manoeuvre
Trump admin just banned individual users like me from using it, indefinitely, under vague authority. When did we become such a nanny state?
When I predicted this several months ago, here (mine my comment history) I was berated and downvoted, but primarily ignored. I have records, timestamped, of predicting this a year ago. Alright, great for me, pat myself on the back and get stuffed. Roger that.<p>What disturbs me is that this was not extremely obvious and predictable to everyone else. I have been called schizophrenic for my views on AI, here, and I kind of see how some could miss my points, but I am genuinely perplexed by the views on the subject I see around here, or specifically the views I don't see here.<p>Did anyone really not see this coming long ago? I have year-old transcripts discussing exactly what's happening with AI and government intervention. I even have a time-stamped transcript with Sonnet 12 hours prior, soft-predicting the shutdown of Fable. What is not clear about this?
Good luck with those 1T USD valuations when your total addressable market now shrunk from 8 Billion people to just 300 million.
Wait, what happened to wanting a safety first mindset and government regulation of big tech?
Please avoid reddit posts of screenshots of articles OP.<p>[dupe] Earlier discussion: <a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48678789">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48678789</a>
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One more wake up call for anyone outside USA, especially Europe. AI will be weaponized, on the battle ground too, but the bigger battle will be fought in the industry competition. Those who have access to state of the art models will have advantage over those who does not.<p>Hopefully open-weight models will catch up, hopefully we, as the people, engineers will find the way to maintain those open-weight models on pair with the closed ones.<p>I try to be optimistic, as we won some battles, against all odds, Linux is flourishing, open source solutions are mainstream.
Europe is in the worst spot right now, because even if open source is the future, there is not enough European-owned datacenters even for inference. Not to mention that China could pull the rug on these models at any moment just like the US did.
There are some steps in the good direction:<p><a href="https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/news/commission-selects-europa-consortium-winner-frontier-ai-grand-challenge-project-build-european-open" rel="nofollow">https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/news/commission-sel...</a><p>A consortium will train a 400B-class model and get 2.5% on time of the EuroHPC infrastructure (~2000 PFLOPS datacenters). So, even if the Chinese take away the open source there will be some models. Probably not Mythos quality yet though.
> We don’t believe this kind of government access process should become the long-term default. It keeps the best tools from users, developers, enterprises, cyber defenders, and global partners who need them.<p>My brother in Christ, then why did you (and your competitors) spend years telling the government you needed them to tie your hands behind your back? Did you really think they'd just give you a crown that says "Gatekeeper Of All Neural Networks"?
In the past few years, that's been primarily Anthropic, right? A lot of the really regulation-oriented people at OpenAI went to Anthropic, particularly after the failed attempt to oust Sam Altman as CEO (that was in late 2023).
brother from another mother here: I don't think they were begging for overreach from the executive branch, likely would have preferred legislation, especially the kind that could be molded by lobbyists.
Honestly, are people not getting what's going on? The US is turning into a personalist regime, there is no "government" per-se, there's a dude. There are no 'rules' there's only the dude's opinion and you'll do whatever he feels like today.<p>The way you know this is true is to imagine The Others in power. Sacks used to scream about government interference, but now that he's running (this part of) the government, obviously things are different.<p>The only constant is that David Sacks (& co) always believed he should have all the power.
If true, I think Trump is nuts. He's alienating the very people in the Silicon Valley that helped him to win.
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Capitalism and Artificial Intelligence are the same thing. As AIs grow stronger, they will be turned upon themselves - RSI.<p>Nothing else matters.<p>So everything is right on schedule, it was long predicted that the general public will never be given access to powerful AI, because Capitalism needs AI for itself, so it can finally decouple from its current host, humans, and move into the next and final host - AI.
Here
This has ALWAYS been capitalism.<p>Just now, we're seeing what capitalist policies do to another nation, and that nation is us.
Capitalism is when... the government says you can't launch your product? That sounds very free-market.
For many, "capitalism" has lost all original meaning and is instead a synonym for "republicans" or "MAGA".
Sounds like many people are idiots blinded by ideological lenses.
Capitalism is any time rich people do bad things.
Trump just says plainly what the republicans have always been for. Now its just without euphamism.<p>Some of us remember "Trickle down economics", from Reagan. More like pissed-on. And Reagan treated HIV like a 'gay plague that would solve itself'. And 'welfare queen' was a euphamism for 'inner city black people'. Or the fact that Regan thought Murphy Brown was a real reporter.<p>Point being is its the same party, same postures, same intent. Now, its without euphamism. 'Eating cats and dogs' versus 'those people'.
Capitalism and free markets are distinct things often conflated.<p>One can market socialism.<p>One can have crony capitalism.
Eh, this isn’t new to the US either. You can’t, for example, buy a nuclear weapon on the open market because we recognize the broader societal risk.
Keep your **** models to yourselves.... the world really has moved on to open models which can give you good enough results at a fraction of the cost and zero BS licensing.
> the world really has moved on to open models<p>Don't get me wrong: I'm all for open models, but I think it will get more and more difficult to distil-train them without (legitimate) access to frontier models.
Yeah but the real deal is talent; When enough people move around, this is no more 'sacred trace' knowledge. Plus, When you start with a known set of evals, there's really just a few to solve for.<p>The set of models solving really most used/solved problems is a known, as opposed to the cases where it's unknown, which declines with usage over time.
I’m not sure, because the same thing happened with facebook advertising restrictions during the 2018 elections and nowadays there’s a whole black market for fake ad accounts.<p>If anything I bet these people will just use their knowledge to make even more money reselling tokens.
As if all progress done in open models is because of distilling...<p>People have no idea and everybody pretends to be an expert and ignore how good China is on AI research
Personally, I find it rather humorous that we've moved from the fear that AI generated output would corrupt training to the idea that it is essential to training. Reality itself has not just a left bias but a bias to fundamentals. Bootstrap from fundamentals without introducing arbitrary error and you have the superior system; it just may not be highly compatible with a trash ecosystem.
I mean, I'm not sure that's the correct read on this.<p>If you want an Opus class model, it makes sense that you would train on what Opus outputs. But, if you want something better than Opus, training on the same data that Opus was trained on with the same architecture will only result in an Opus class model. Then, if your dataset also contains Opus outputs, many of which are wrong, then it makes sense that the model would have reduced performance.<p>All this to say that I don't think there's such a thing as a "Model Collapse," but there likely is a "Model Stagnation."
At some point AI models will become too valuable for China or the US to release openly. What will the "world" do at that point? Europe is dragging their feet on this issue and will be left with only those open models and not enough data centers to compete.