Crypto investors are migrated to the newest unregulated speculative asset: the stock market.<p>I don’t know for certain but the amount of retail investing on vibes around AI companies and metals feels just like the crypto peaks. Just the other day Marvell jumped on the words of Jensen Huang and metal ETFs randomly lost tons of investment earlier this year.<p>Without a lot of the guardrails of the US regulatory apparatus that has been gutted by the current administration, the market is riff with manipulation. Truly another gilded age.
I just finished the recently published <i>The Alighty Dollar</i> by Brendan Greeley [0]. It is a great story of the evolution of currency in general and the dollar specifically. It wraps up with a brief critique of crypto in general that I found interesting.<p>[0]<a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/634502/the-almighty-dollar-by-brendan-greeley/" rel="nofollow">https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/634502/the-almighty...</a>
Bitcoin price stories should no longer be considered on topic for HN.
Here is a prediction about Bitcoin: there will be a financial crash at some point in the future, maybe it will be the AI bubble, maybe because of oil, shortages, something entirely unforeseen or some combination of those things, but if there is something to know about cycles is that crashes happens.<p>And because Bitcoin is now old enough that most people understand what it is, the hype has vanished, it won't survive the global fear or losing it all.
My own personal opinion is that the hype around bitcoin is not coming back. I dont think its going to zero, but too many people have just moved on.
Bitcoin doesn't really have any coherent reasoning behind it, that I can tell. Other investments I can have a theory (which may be wrong) and see it work. I can buy gold/silver to hedge weaker currency. I can believe a stock is going up (or the market in general). I can buy bonds. I can do Forex or Commodities based on whatever feeling if I really want to lose money. But Bitcoin doesn't really seem to correlate with anything.
That's circular logic on the gold/silver. You basically say gold/silver holds value because it holds value. Bitcoin and other crypto is really no more illogical than precious metals. Precious metals have a few relatively minor uses for industrial applications but really they're valuable because we've all agreed they're valuable, no different than Bitcoin.
> Bitcoin doesn't really have any coherent reasoning behind it<p>Stocks are feeling more and more like this also.
You mean you aren't bullish on volume of illegal transactions? /s
Looks like BTC might still be overvalued by $63,825.96
Quantum fears: <a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48375692">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48375692</a>
Are there other cryptocurrencies that use quantum safe cryptography that aren't being affected by the downswing?
You could look at only two niche blockchains, QRL and ABEL, and they are both affected. Algorand is the most established L1 with a quite developed migration plan (<a href="https://algorand.co/technology/post-quantum" rel="nofollow">https://algorand.co/technology/post-quantum</a>) but also not really thriving. I think for Bitcoin in the longterm it is a massive risk psychologically, because what to do with all of the locked in value, that cannot be migrated. My guess is that the market panics and security breaks down, because it is not worth it anymore to run that many nodes. Best time to buy would be then and hope it recovers. It is actually a big chance to move just to another L1 which migrates. Those risks are all priced in.
or maybe they sont need an alternate criminal coin if you can now do fraud and crime in dollars with less transaction (bribe) cost.
Bitcoin has gone through a number of narratives. A big one was the it was digital gold. Then, gold went up like crazy and bitcoin stagnated and people lost interest.<p>It's still a store of value.. I guess?
We are in the middle of every 4 year hole at the moment. Heights and lows are unpredictable but the timing is still solid.
People will FUD. After the cycle is over, Bitcoin will make new ATH and the people who bought the dip will be called lucky. Same old tale
> Same old tale<p>I have sweatshirts that are older than Bitcoin, brother.
Precisely, although the dip is likely to be deeper. Having said this, the quantum risk is real, and if left unaddressed, the pattern will break.
I like to tell people I have an imaginary dog.<p>It fits my needs perfectly except for one critical issue --- it won't clean up food dropped on the floor.<p>Bitcoin is imaginary money. It works perfectly except for one critical issue --- it's not very good for purchasing stuff.<p>Bitcoin has about the same value as my imaginary dog.
I use bitcoin to pay for things several times a month, works fine for me.
I use USD to pay for things several times a day. Sometimes many times a day. Something that in comparison works only "several times a month" fits the criteria of not being very good at it.
Are you paying Strait of Hormuz passage fees, perchance?
Contrived.<p>Your imaginary dog can’t teleport value across the globe instantly, but Bitcoin can.
Value can only teleport if someone is willing to trade traditional currency in exchange on the other side. My no international fee bank account also teleports value across the globe instantly and more merchants are willing to accept it than Bitcoin.
> Your imaginary dog can’t teleport value across the globe instantly, but Bitcoin can.<p>"Someone can instantly and permanently steal your beloved dog and you'll never see it again" is a downside.
That's only because many people share the mental image of the imaginary dog.
Can your imaginary dog be stolen by Russia and North Korea to circumvent sanctions? Are people buying "ownership" of your imaginary dog in a speculative frenzy that will cause the last bagholder to take a bath when there are no more greater fools?<p>It's true that your imaginary dog, like Bitcoin, has no good legal use; but your imaginary dog is harmless. Bitcoin is not.
Don't forget the flagrant use by politicians to grift their supporters and/or receive money that would otherwise be illegal to do so from foreign actors through it.<p>Truly amazing that the tech elite have replicated everything wrong with the existing financial system while not managing to get any of the actual good, useful parts.
"Good time to buy"
I've been buying the dip all week
Bitcoin (and crypto at large) goes through these 4 year cycles repeatedly. Each time people claim its dead, "this time is different", etc etc. It peaked at the end of 2024 and now we're in mid 2026...traditionally near the bottom of the cycle. There IS someone in the White House now that seems hellbent on driving the global economy into the ground but until there's definitive evidence that this time really is different, I'm going to assume it's business as usual and people screaming about how its over is just the buy indicator it's been many times in the past.
> Each time people claim its dead, "this time is different", etc etc<p>Related: <a href="https://www.bitcoinisdead.org/" rel="nofollow">https://www.bitcoinisdead.org/</a>
There's no such thing as predicting the future when it comes to assets. Patterns aren't guarantors of future returns. If they were; the asset would be a sure-thing. Your confidence isn't warranted.
Technical analysis is just astrology for finance bros.