You don't have to believe. If you have a 401k you will be an investor 15 days after launch.<p>The IPO will go great, because the company will float a fairly small issuance. The big shareholders will not immediately sell. They will hold on and maybe even buy to support the price.<p>Then, after 15 days, it will enter the indexes and everyone's 401k will start auto-buying this stock.<p>You might say this is an obvious flaw in how the indexes work if they start immediately accept a brand new IPOed stock with limited float. You'd be right, which is why they won't list for a year.<p>At least they wouldn't until Elon got them to change their rules: <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-30/nasdaq-clears-way-for-spacex-big-ipos-to-gain-fast-index-entry" rel="nofollow">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-30/nasdaq-cl...</a>
>float a fairly small issuance<p>They are widely reported to be planning to raise $75Billion in new capital. It may seem look small a % for the valuation target, However that is about 3 times previous highest raise of $29B when Saudi Aramco went public few years back. The market simply may not be that deep[1]<p>There is a good chance this one becomes the Wework of this decade. The valuation, amount being raised, cooling interests in AI, and middle eastern capital changing priorities, interest rate outlook for the rest of the decade. These are all strong head winds to overcome even when not raising the largest ever amount in an IPO.<p>That is not say that it is destined to fail, Elon is excellent salesman of vision when fundamentals are weak, There is no better proof than Tesla P/E .<p>It is by no means clear this would be successful or not. The valuation, funds being raised, future growth potential are all not based on just SpaceX core businesses which would have been an easy sell.<p>---<p>[1] i.e. it could be still under-subscribed even if everyone buys into the vision, growth projections, is comfortable with valuation gets fully onboard including retail.<p>Even in this best case scenario SpaceX would have to sell at the lower end of the target range or go even lower and still end up being short matter what, because there could simply be not enough money in the market.
I really wish more people were aware of this. It's a major scandal and definitely not being talked enough about.<p>Nevermind SpaceX, which at least have some importance for US defense industry, but xAI ? We will be investing in Elon's private venture, at the price that he himself set and which is at least 2 orders of magnitude too high...
Only NASDAQ so far; S&P 500 is apparently "reviewing its rules" but hasn't changed them yet.<p>So you've got a full year to wait on that index fund, assuming they don't cave.
Uter and complete corruption: <a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47389233">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47389233</a><p><pre><code> - "Le secret des grandes fortunes sans cause apparente est un crime oublié, parce qu’il a été proprement fait."
Honoré de Balzac</code></pre>
Ever since SNAP the whole IPO show has been a transparent scam to game the index funds.<p>The market simply doesn’t have enough people actively investing because it rewards mass stupidity over generating meaningful returns.
The flaw is the limited float. Indexes will be forced to buy a huge number of shares which don't exist, driving up the price.<p>For general investors if this is going to eventually happen, the earlier the indexes buy in the better. Otherwise more sophisticated investors will buy ahead of the indexes and grab the profit.
Serious question: Is there some ETF that is "Index of S&P500 minus anything that smells like Musk"?
Do the ETF managers have no discretion in determining when to buy? I was under the impression that they usually handle these changes to indices gradually even under normal circumstances.
> If you have a 401k you will be an investor 15 days after launch<p>You will be an investor in spacex and xai which it bought.<p>Fun fact, Xai net loss 6 billion dollars per year and SpaceX net profit 8 billion on a good year (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/musks-xai-posts-net-quarterly-loss-146-billion-bloomberg-news-reports-2026-01-09/" rel="nofollow">https://www.reuters.com/technology/musks-xai-posts-net-quart...</a> <a href="https://www.globalbankingandfinance.com/spacex-registers-take-rocket-maker-public-blockbuster-ipo/" rel="nofollow">https://www.globalbankingandfinance.com/spacex-registers-tak...</a>)<p>If you remember xai, it's that company currently being sued for the undressing kids feature (<a href="https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/895639/xai-grok-teens-lawsuit-grok-ai-elon-musk" rel="nofollow">https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/895639/x...</a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grok_sexual_deepfake_scandal" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grok_sexual_deepfake_scandal</a>) in its flagship product. By the way the feature is still enabled apparently<p>Is there something about why spacex wants to go public ? if not then this is definitely about xai... to hide unprofitability and offload it on general public ASAP.
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This is absolutely vile. The xAi merger made no sense and this is forcing working class people into purchasing risky assets from a known scammer.
The thing i'm not looking forward to is SpaceX will now be beholden to Wall Street. With Startship testing being so public, there's a whole cottage industry of youtubers watching their every move, there's going to be lots of ups and downs on the stock price.
> SpaceX will now be beholden to Wall Street<p>I get and appreciate that sentiment. Musk currently has a controlling interest in SpaceX. Do you expect that to change after the IPO? Thanks!
I get the feeling investors are going to watch Starship explode and explode while it's being developed without understanding the trial/error, hardware rich, approach SpaceX takes and not like it. That's going to hurt the stock price and therefore hurt the company. Before, when Starship exploded people just pointed and laughed at Musk but SpaceX kept going. For better or for worse it doesn't really bother him, don't forget he got literally laughed out of the room when he proposed a re-usable orbital booster. Now those people actually matter because they'll sell/short and kill the stock price and therefore materially hurt the company. I replied to a sibling about Tesla, remember the shorts nearly killed Tesla before it even had a chance. The technology was there and the concept proven but the shorters almost killed the whole thing. IMO Tesla went public way too early and it almost cost them everything. idk what SpaceX has to gain by going public, are they hurting for cash? Based on the pace of development in Boca Chica it doesn't appear so.<p>/not a finance or investment expert just my observations and feelings
I expect that the amount of "good influence" institutional shareholders can exert on SpaceX leadership and operations is about zero, and the amount of "bad influence" is more than that. Thus, the only way this can affect SpaceX's leadership is negative.<p>A big part of how SpaceX did what they did is that they weren't beholden to institutional pressures. They could afford to take major risks. This may change when a pool of investors who don't care about space and just want the line to go up end up being stakeholders.
What makes you think this will be different from Tesla?
Are you shorting Tesla since you’re so confident in its downfall?
None and that's the problem, the shorts almost killed Tesla for no other reason than being short. I think watching Starship after Starship blow up while being tested when investors don't really understand what they're looking at is going to be bad for the stock price. In a public traded company so goes the stock price so goes the business.
Does this mean that before june SpaceX will do something highly noteworthy, to justify the IPO price?
Patrick Boyle (fund manager, professor, youtuber) recently discussed this IPO on his channel. Informative and entertaining.<p><a href="https://youtu.be/8rS3fTbC7TE?is=TGpEdM2Y7sknP-cW" rel="nofollow">https://youtu.be/8rS3fTbC7TE?is=TGpEdM2Y7sknP-cW</a>
On one hand I do take some enjoyment of suckers being fleeced. But on other hand I know who this all will benefit so I really can't do that.<p>As whole I find that valuation just insane, but seemingly if you only offer tiny enough slice with enough hype it might bump prices to something that really make no sense at all...
The suckers being fleeced are every pension fund in the world. They're demanding the S&P includes them faster to force ETF owners to buy in before the price tanks.
Why are they being fleeced? If people didn't want to buy SpaceX they could buy some other ETF that doesn't include it. If there's enough of a demand I'm sure ETFs will be offered which include all the big indexed stocks <i>except</i> SpaceX.
Restructuring every ETF to be S&P but prior rules and no SpaceX would be enormously difficult.
Yes Americans will definitely move their 401k over this /s<p>Its fleecing because it basically takes everybody's money and gives it to support musk's money loser xai. SpaceX net profit 8 billion per year (previous years much less) and Xai was net losing 1.5 billion per quarter.
God forbid we participants in the stock market <i>evaluate</i> a business before investing in it, or do any sort of <i>work</i> to get the return we're promised.<p>I, for one, much prefer to earn a 9% return without expending any effort or thought at all.
For most people their talent and expertise does not involve investing. That's why pensions and 401ks exist and why S&P/nasdaq have rules to protect the public.
You may wish it were not so, you may find it inelegant and infuriating and unfair, but it is a fact that retail investors nearly all underperform the market over a long enough time horizon. Maybe you are built different but for most of us it is very rational to take the market return for “free”.
Unless you literally have nothing, YOU are one of the millions being fleeced. Pensions & retirement funds, any index fund that comes remotely close to technology, any equity you own in a venture in tech, any industry that via very short linkages is connected. Good luck avoiding this.
Now or never. If the stock market goes bust because of the war then most IPO windows will close or will result in a much lower subscription rate. You can expect a flurry of these in the next few weeks.
This is structured so that Musk becomes the first trillionaire.
Rabble rabble... debt... rabble rabble... xAI burning revenue...<p>> In the United States, SpaceX accounts for five of every six launches into space, according to Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology.<p>That's why.
They are going IPO close to Elon's birthday (26th or 29th June) aren't they? Like they did with Tesla.<p>But as soon as they IPO, that's a signal to head for the exit before it all collapses again.
I hate that I will have to invest in this crap with my retirement index funds
What's in the SpaceX Files and why aren't they already public?
Details of alien encounters and abductions, paranormal and psychic phenomena, as well as crypto-zoology and curious human abilities.<p><i>reads headline again</i><p>Oh. Probably all the money burnt in AI training and data centers.
the truth social is out there
That is what I'm talking about, finally someone is asking the real questions.
Just more pedophiles and their supporters.
The big numbers are the cost to train a frontier LLM and the GPU cost per hour.
Outstanding comment.<p>4 different levels to unpack: Literal IPO question, Epstein cover-up (gov. won't just do it), aliens (X-Files) cover-up, and finally the Elon-Epstein connection (email files thread to host him at SpaceX).
I don't know what's in the Spacex files, but I do know that Musk begged and pleaded with Epstein to come party on pedo island.<p>Maybe something to consider before investing in any of his companies.
Sensitive financial information. It is normal for companies to file confidentiality to avoid leaking information early.
ugh he's going to be worth > 1T and go on to have even more influence than before. this is so bad for society.<p>idgaf about the company. sure they proved the space and moved the space forward just like Tesla did with electric cars but why did it have to be Elon?
Mars bros... It's so over.
The five stages of Elon Musk:<p><pre><code> 1. Elon is a genius, a real world Tony Stark.
2. How dare you! You're just jealous!
3. Ok, regardless, he's done more to advance EVe and space travel than anyone else alive.
4. Oh God, he's going to cripple US development of EVs and rockets, isn't he?
5. Eh, Mars was never happening in my lifetime anyway.</code></pre>
Trying to dump on the market before the bubble pops.