LLMs on device is the future. It's more secure and solves the problem of too much demand for inference compared to data center supply, it also would use less electricity. It's just a matter of getting the performance good enough. Most users don't need frontier model performance.
I have journaled digitally for the last 5 years with this expectation.<p>Recently I built a graphRAG app with Qwen 3.5 4b for small tasks like classifying what type of question I am asking or the entity extraction process itself, as graphRAG depends on extracted triplets (entity1, relationship_to, entity2). I used Qwen 3.5 27b for actually answering my questions.<p>It works pretty well. I have to be a bit patient but that’s it. So in that particular use case, I would agree.<p>I used MLX and my M1 64GB device. I found that MLX definitely works faster when it comes to extracting entities and triplets in batches.
You could argue that the only reason we have good open-weight models is because companies are trying to undermine the big dogs, and they are spending millions to make sure they dont get too far ahead. If the bubble pops then there wont be incentive to keep doing it.
I agree. I can totally see in the future that open source LLMs will turn into paying a lumpsum for the model. Many will shut down. Some will turn into closed source labs.<p>When VCs inevitably ask their AI labs to start making money or shut down, those free open source LLMS will cease to be free.<p>Chinese AI labs have to release free open source models because they distill from OpenAI and Anthropic. They will always be behind. Therefore, they can't charge the same prices as OpenAI and Anthropic. Free open source is how they can get attention and how they can stay fairly close to OpenAI and Anthropic. They have to distill because they're banned from Nvidia chips and TSMC.<p>Before people tell me Chinese AI labs do use Nvidia chips, there is a huge difference between using older gimped Nvidia H100 (called H20) chips or sneaking around Southeast Asia for Blackwell chips and officially being allowed to buy millions of Nvidia's latest chips to build massive gigawatt data centers.
"Most users don't need frontier model performance" unfortunately, this is not the case.
Man I really hope so, as, as much as I like Claude Code, I hate the company paying for it and tracking your usage, bullshit management control, etc. I feel like I'm training my replacement. Things feel like they are tightening vs more power and freedom.<p>On device I would <i>gladly</i> pay for good hardware - it's my machine and I'm using as I see fit like an IDE.
It isn't going to replace cloud LLMs since cloud LLMs will always be faster in throughput and smarter. Cloud and local LLMs will grow together, not replace each other.<p>I'm not convinced that local LLMs use less electricity either. Per token at the same level of intelligence, cloud LLMs should run circles around local LLMs in efficiency. If it doesn't, what are we paying hundreds of billions of dollars for?<p>I think local LLMs will continue to grow and there will be an "ChatGPT" moment for it when good enough models meet good enough hardware. We're not there yet though.<p>Note, this is why I'm big on investing in chip manufacture companies. Not only are they completely maxed out due to cloud LLMs, but soon, they will be double maxed out having to replace local computer chips with ones that are suited for inferencing AI. This is a massive transition and will fuel another chip manufacturing boom.
We are 100% there already. In browser.<p>the webgpu model in my browser on my m4 pro macbook was as good as chatgpt 3.5 and doing 80+ tokens/s<p>Local is here.
Looking at downvotes I feel good about SDE future in 3-5 years. We will have a swamp of "vibe-experts" who won't be able to pay 100K a month to CC. Meanwhile, people who still remember <i>how to code in Vim</i> will (slowly) get back to pre-COVID TC levels.