It's important to clarify that these are the trading prices at the main oil futures exchange in London. The spot prices in the landing hubs like Gujarat, Odisha and Singapore are significantly higher.<p>If you or your firm handles trucking or mining or tractors or something like buses, stock up on additives where the vast majority of production (like brake fluid, AdBlue (DEF) and gear oil) is Asian now before they get even more expensive. To give a sense of perspective, I've seen prices for transmission fluid and antifreeze almost double month-on-month in England where I am.
With this prices it is cheaper to make fuel from coal, the break even price was about 80-90 USD/barrel. And if this continues for months this will pushes wind and solar and electrical cars making natural gas and oil much less relevant. Maybe that was the plan.
> And if this continues for months this will pushes wind and solar and electrical cars making natural gas and oil much less relevant. Maybe that was the plan.<p>This is one of the most batshit insane things I've ever read. What on Earth would make you think this?
Nowhere in deciding to attack Iran was "maybe this will help wind, solar and electric cars."
The Mossad and various abrahamic apocalyptic cults will finally push us into green tech. Maybe I judged them too harshly.
> Maybe that was the plan.<p>Whose?
Earlier:<p><i>Iran's South Pars Gas Field Is Attacked by Israel, Sending Energy Prices Soaring</i><p><a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47428611">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47428611</a>
Again the US admin proves how dumb they are, even Pres. Bush II knew it would be real stupid to attack Iran.<p>But one thing, higher oil prices may get the US to really get working to avoid Climate Change. Yes, some progress has been made, but real CO2 emissions is increasing. The only time it decreased a bit was during the Covid Shutdown.<p>But one plus may occur, higher price of oil.<p>Yes, higher prices will cause suffering with the poor and middle classes, but that suffering pales in comparison to what +1.5C will cause. We are already on track for more then 2C. Suffering from that will be far worse than $150 USD price per barrel. Better to take a small hit now and hope it can keep us below 1.5C then trying to live with 2C.<p>Yes, I posted this knowing it will be down-voted, but cheap oil only makes +3C guaranteed to happen. Who cares about the young anyway /s
The natural gas field strike very conveniently increases the EU dependencies on US LNG. The diversification via Qatar had already been shut down, now Israel drives the Iranian gas buyers to compete on the world market.<p>It is a great plan. The Gulf Monarchies are weakened (that is what you get for your Trump bribes ...), the EU is weakened, and the US controls all energy flows.<p>China can use the land route to Russia. The EU is going to commit economic suicide instead.
> It is a great plan.<p>Let's be real here. Nothing this administration ever does is planned.
> Nothing this administration ever does is planned.<p>You are joking, right? Project 2025 has achieved 50% of its goals in record time[0]. Trump disavowed both it and invading Iran, but make no mistake. Both were “the plan”.<p>[0] <a href="https://www.project2025.observer/en" rel="nofollow">https://www.project2025.observer/en</a>
The plans to destabilize Syria and Iran have existed since the Obama administration. Trump is just the hatchet man.
Great plan for whom? Trump is headed towards Nixon levels of popularity and Nixon methods of ejection with this sort of stuff. The war is hugely unpopular, Trump is less popular, and if gasoline prices stay high and we get involved in a ground war there may be a popular revolution even before Democrats get elected and are able to impeach.<p>Deals done in Yuan will still get through Hormuz. EU could switch currencies for fossil fuels, get their energy, and further lessen their dependence on a US that expresses nothing but hate and disgust for the EU.
EU has had a lot of time to recognize the situation they have been in regarding energy.<p>Sorry, but this will never not be not amusing. Where Trump being a stopped clock warns the UN about relying on foreign energy and the German delegation laughs as they were shutting down their nuclear and increasing reliance on Russia for energy.<p><a href="https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FfJv9QYrlwg" rel="nofollow">https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FfJv9QYrlwg</a>
> EU has had a lot of time to recognize the situation they have been in regarding energy.<p>There is no case of they just needed to pay attention earlier. The problem is known. There is just no good solution. Drastically scaling back energy consumption isn't going to happen any time soon and would harm the economy. So we can choose between Russia, the Middle East and the USA. Best would be of course to reduce fossil use, but that is orthogonal.
Trump? The same Trump that threatened Greenland while the EU is relying on US LNG? Indeed the EU should not rely on US energy.<p>Trump is completely inconsistent anyway. First he blamed the EU for wanting to continue the Ukraine war. Then he periodically floats lifting Russia sanctions. But if the <i>EU</i> were to lift Russia sanctions, that of course would lead to severe repercussions.<p>Trump is about economic suppression of the EU.<p>If you say "nuclear energy". The US has imported Russian uranium to at least 2025.
If I were the EU, I'd send a covert ops team to assassinate Putin. Then start talking with his successor and re-establish the Nord Stream deliveries.
You could do this whole plan without needing to do the assassination part, as long as you are willing to throw Ukraine under the bus. Conversely, even if the assassination scheme goes exactly as planned, there is no way of guaranteeing that the new Russian leader would be willing to restart gas deliveries until the war in Ukraine has wrapped up. Given that especially the eastern EU countries have absolutely no intention of allowing Ukraine to lose, this seems like a very tall order.<p>Finally, both Nordstream 1 AND Nordstream 2 still have a gaping holes in them from the bombings so restarting deliveries will probably take several years at least.<p>All in all, this plan gets only a 2 out of 10 for being impractical, too slow AND depending on factors outside our control. 1 point because it does at least sound spy-ish and proactive.
That could work really well, or it could fail in a humiliating public way and totally confirm+legitimize that regime's paranoia. Huge downsides.
The West is getting very cavalier about murdering the government officials of other countries.
Wouldn't they reciprocate the tactic instead?
A terrible idea, you think the Russians are going to appreciate you killing their leader?<p>A better idea is to try to get Russia to join the EU and use an open market to exert control over the more extreme behaviors and tendencies in Russia. A lot of Russian behavior is based on paranoia (completely justifiable paranoia when you see the way the US is behaving) so perhaps having them in the European fold will chill them out a bit - obviously this is far fetched but it's at least a way to fix this long term.
I I where the EU, I would send ops teams to assassinate Bibi.
Putin is not a mad dictator ruling against everyone’s wishes. He’s a leader of a large establishment elite which shares his views and gets very rich. If you replace Putin, most likely outcome is his replacement will not be very different (and probably worse, since the country will be even more anti-Western after the assassination)
Real life isn't a James Bond movie. The next guy in line is more belligerent than Putin
These "decapitation" strikes can't be much more than narcissistic projection. Trump and Netanyahu are "unilateralists" (de facto dictators) and narcissists, and think everyone else must be as well, ergo decapitation strikes must be successful.<p>It may have been true in the case of Maduro, but the jury is out (we also "decapitated" Hugo Chavez in the early 2000s but he came roaring back).<p>It is emphatically not true in the case of Iran, Russia, China, DPRK or any state that has been truly sovereign for a couple generations. These states have deep political power structures that don't rely on the whims of one individual.
It really feels like we need to re-read or Orwell to understand how these countries operate. Trump believes the narrative you spelled out above because it's simple and reinforces his personal view, but it's just not true of these long-lived autocratic states. You may see power concentrated in a single individual but the entire system behaves the same way. "Kill the body and the head will die" takes a lot more work & discipline then lopping off a few necks of the hydra and hoping they don't multiply.
This^, also quite bizarre to read all the blood thirsty comments above… what is this, 4chan?
btw fertilizer prices are now 40% higher<p>this is going to destroy world economy on every angle<p>fuel and now food<p>it's like the Israeli's figured out the answer to their problem was to make it everyone's problem<p>how about we stop giving them offensive weapons, defensive only or we'll be going through this every decade
We shouldn't even be giving them defensive weapons because that only enables them to wage war without consequence. In this specific case its a moot point since we joined this war in the most direct way possible but in general every time we shoot down one country's missiles but not the other we are participating in the war, especially when the side we protect is the aggressor.
> this is going to destroy world economy on every angle<p>Oil prices were around $100 for a lot of the early 2010s. It's been three weeks. Calm down.
Why are you blaming Israel? Iran has been fueling the fires for year by send piles of money and weapons to anyone who had a serious plan to attack Israel.<p>Not that Israel is perfect, but there is plenty of blame to go around and recognizing that reality is required before we can even try to think of a solution. (I don't have one)
Because they're the ones that poured water onto the burning pan of oil. Nobody is claiming that they created the problem in its entirety, but they <i>have</i> made it significantly worse this month.
and why do we care? we elected “America First” President, not “Isreal First, America who gives a hoot”
There are vague allegations of Iran being the "leading state sponsor of terror" on one scale, and then Israel openly doing a genocide and starting wars of aggression and assassinating countless civilian and military leaders on the other scale, with a growing number of American bodies as cannon fodder.<p>It is up to you to decide where justice lies.
Nah, there's nothing vague around their funding and training of various militaries and militias in the area. There's more than enough war crimes on both sides to go around, and any concept of justice that is predicated on prosecuting one side exclusively is simply bankrupt. If Israeli civilians are fair game because of Israel's war crimes, then American civilians are fair game for the same reason. And I reject any theory of justice that bites that particular bullet.
Are you blaming Israel for american troops in Iran? Is the US not a sovreign nation anymore?
Any effective defensive weapon is an offensive weapon, in that it allows you to commit other resources to offense, or defend against a retaliation in response to an escalating offense on your part.
Israel bombed the main Iranian Gas Field in Pars.<p>This will likely lead to destruction of energy infrastructure across the Gulf from tit-for-tat attacks leading to the worst case scenario that everyone has been warning about - the complete destruction of all energy infra across the Gulf. Iran's trump-card was exactly this - they've given written letters that this is what their response would be if their energy infra was harmed.<p>This is extremely serious - this is going to wreck Asia. I'd not be surprised if significant percentage of people in places like India die from famines (think 100s of millions), lack of electricity and supply-chain issues if this goes where the mad apocalypse-obsessed suicidal Zionists in Israel/US are pushing this.<p>Do you really need the "blood-sacrifice" of the Asian "pagans" for your silly eschatological larping ? Eesh.
Nobody forced Iran to bomb gas and oil fields that aren't even of their enemies, and to start doing it before Pars was bombed (e.g. Shah gas field was targeted 2 days ago). Place the blame on Iran who is actually 'wrecking Asia' and not the ones fighting it.
Relax, go outside, touch grass. The sun will rise again.
> Relax, go outside, touch grass. The sun will rise again.<p>Yeah, and don't forget, this is all about helping the environment and the Iranian people, freeing them from that pesky and unnecessary for life energy by releasing some much needed smoke. /
I doubt hundreds of millions will die, but go fuck yourself regardless
Do you have any idea what has happened ? This is the literal end of civilization.
Civilization is ending and you took time out of your apocalypse preparations to make a new account here? To write this? Where are your priorities?<p>A couple years from now when you are shivering in a cave you aren't going to be thinking "I may not have hoarded enough ivermectin but at least I got the last word on that HN thread".
End of civilization takes a lot more than high oil/fertilizer prices, even if it causes famine in poorer countries.
> End of civilization takes a lot more than high oil/fertilizer prices,<p>Energy prices factor into everything else, so there literally will be <i>a lot more than higher oil/fertilizer prices</i>.<p>The end of civilized relations between countries is a sign of sick and dying civilization and we are there already, plenty of other evidence too.<p>> even if it causes famine in poorer countries.<p>So compassionate of you.
The sun will still rise after civilization ends too.
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/This_too_shall_pass" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/This_too_shall_pass</a>
I read this to mean a labor-strike at first glance