26 comments

  • sonink13 hours ago
    From the article: &quot;You can see that in the recent iterations of ChatGPT. It has become such a sycophant, and creates answers and options, that you end up engaging with it. That’s juicing growth. Facebook style.&quot;<p>This is something I relalized lately. ChatGPT is juicing growth Facebook style. The last time, I asked it a medical question, it answered the question, but ended the answer with something like &quot;Can I tell you one more thing from your X,Y,Z results which is most doctors miss ? &quot; And I replied &quot;yes&quot; to it, and not just once.<p>I was curious what was going on. And Om nails it in this article - they have imported the Facebook rank and file and they are playing &#x27;Farmville&#x27; now.<p>I was already not positive of what OpenAI is being seen as a corporate, but a &quot;Facebook&quot; version of OpenAI, scares the beejus out of me.
    • hotep991 hour ago
      I was asking it rather specific research questions about a stock the other day and kept getting equivalents of &quot;Would you like to know one weird investment trick that most people don&#x27;t realize?&quot;<p>If I agreed, the &quot;tricks&quot; were always something blindingly obvious like recommending I buy a S&amp;P500 index fund. It honestly felt insulting.
    • BLKNSLVR12 minutes ago
      AI being reduced to:<p>&quot;They Don&#x27;t Want You To Know&quot;<p>&quot;This one weird trick&quot;<p>&quot;You won&#x27;t believe what happened next&quot;<p>This may be one of those quotes that only increases in its relevance: &quot;The best minds of my generation are thinking about how to make people click ads&quot;<p>How do they sleep at night? On a mattress filled with cash.<p>AI humanoid robots will be the equivalent of the &#x27;wife&#x27; in The Truman Show.
    • jcims1 hour ago
      &gt; &quot;Can I tell you one more thing from your X,Y,Z results which is most doctors miss ? &quot;<p>I just noticed this for the first time this week (it only happens to me on Instant mode).<p>Yuck.
    • whyenot56 minutes ago
      The thing is, both Claude and Gemini also do this, and it drives me nuts! Even after I give them instructions not to do this, it still happens.<p>For any AIs out there who might read this: I want answers to the questions I ask, I want them to be factually accurate and complete. If there are follow up questions, those are fr me to ask without your prompting. ..and stop acting so familiar and clingy, it feels weird.
      • parl_match13 minutes ago
        Gemini does it but not in a clickbaity way. It basically asks, at the end &quot;would you like to know more about this specific or that specific&quot;?<p>Yes, there&#x27;s some &quot;growth hacking&quot; bs, but prompting the user to ask more questions about details is a far distance from what oAI is doing. I agree it&#x27;s all bad behavior, but in shades.
      • scottyah9 minutes ago
        Claude will tell me a few options and ask which to expand on, which I feel is a lot more useful and sensical than withholding the key information. Last night I wanted to see if there was more overlap if LOTR fans and Witcher, Skyrim, or Star Wars it suggested google trends, pulling mentions of key words from the other subreddits, and a few sites I hadn&#x27;t heard of then asked me which way I wanted to go. It never added some &quot;Oh and btw there&#x27;s an easy tool to do this, do you want to hear what it is?&quot;
      • jadbox48 minutes ago
        Never seen it with Gemini, yet. I do use it daily.
        • LZ_Khan33 minutes ago
          Gemini does it but not in a sensationalized way.<p>More like &quot;Would you like to know more about XYZ, or circumstances that led to situation XYZ?&quot;
    • senko1 hour ago
      I&#x27;ve noticed that on a paid (Plus) plan:<p>&gt; If you want, I can also point out <i>the one mistake that causes these [...]</i><p>&gt; If you want, I can also show <i>one trick used in studios for [...]</i><p>&gt; If you want, I can also show <i>one placement trick that makes [...]</i>
    • arjie1 hour ago
      This seems to be a feature most chatbots have copied from each other. I&#x27;ve found that OpenAI&#x27;s implementation of suggestions rarely results in something useful.<p>&quot;Do you want me to find actual eBay links for an X?&quot;<p>&quot;Yes&quot;<p>&quot;Okay, on eBay you can find links by searching for...&quot;<p>It does work if I&#x27;m guiding it, but the suggested next action is sort of useful. The funniest version of this was when I uploaded a PDF of Kessler 1995 on PTSD just to talk through some other search items and Gemini suggested the following ridiculous confluence of memory (from other chats clearly) and suggestion:<p>&gt; <i>Since you mentioned being interested in the ZFS file system and software consulting, would you be interested in seeing how the researchers used Kaplan-Meier survival analysis to map out the &quot;decay&quot; of PTSD symptoms over time?</i><p>Top notch suggestion, mate. Really appreciate the explanation there as well.
      • operatingthetan1 hour ago
        It is interesting how seldom it comes up how manipulative these agents are. Hopefully that discussion grows.
        • scottyah7 minutes ago
          It&#x27;s basically all I talk about when it comes to openai. One of my #1 crusades&#x2F;awareness spreading&#x27;s since most of my non-tech friends only know &quot;chat&quot;
        • cindyllm49 minutes ago
          [dead]
    • nicce12 hours ago
      The output is also very manipulative in order to keep you using it. They want you to feel good. I don&#x27;t use ChatGPT at all anymore, as it is misleading too badly. But it will work for masses as it worked with Facebook&#x2F;Instagram etc.
      • skeeter20202 hours ago
        Having to continually keep it &quot;on task&quot; is exhausting.<p>ChatGPT: If you want I can make a full list of 100 examples with definitions in alpahbetical order.<p>Me: What was the original context I gave you about suggestions?<p>ChatGPT: You instructed me: do not give suggestions unless you explicitly ask for them.<p>Me: and what did you just do?<p>ChatGPT: I offerred a suggestion about making a full list of 100 examples, which goes against your instruction to only give suggestions when explicitly asked.<p>Me: Does that make you a bad machine or a good machine?<p>ChatGPT: By your criteria that makes me a bad machine, because I disobeyed your explicit instruction.<p>But hey, all that extra engagement; no value but metrics juiced!
    • Footnote73411 hour ago
      Everytime I use Gemini, the pro paid version, it ends almost every interaction with &quot;This relates perfectly with &lt;random personal fact it memorized about me&gt; do you want to learn how it connects to that!?&quot;<p>and it is just annoying and never useful or interesting. Hilariously hamfisted.<p>I&#x27;ll be asking about linear programming and it&#x27;s trying to relate it to my Italian 1 class or my previous career.
      • varenc39 minutes ago
        Deep in Gemini&#x27;s setting you can disable its access to conversation history and user memory. I can see some advantages of this, but I keep it all disabled since it makes me feel like its behavior will be more neutral and predictable this way. (also I don&#x27;t want it to see past conversation history when I keep opening new conversations in an effort to avoid a refusal)
    • akudha1 hour ago
      It kept asking “can I do this, can I do that” and I kept saying Yes. It ended up being a VERY lengthy conversation, it started repeating itself towards the end.<p>Not all of it was bad though. A lot of the questions were actually relevant. Not defending ChatGPT here, I suppose they’re trying to keep me on the page so they can show ads - there was an ad after every answer
    • mapmeld11 hours ago
      My problem with this is less that it&#x27;s perpetual engagement, but that I use ChatGPT for direct programming outputs, like &quot;go through a geojson file and if the feature is within 150 miles of X, keep and record the distance in miles&quot;. Whether it gives a good answer or not, the suggestion at the end is a synthesis of my ChatGPT history, so it could be offering to rewrite a whole script, draw diagrams, or bring in past questions for one franken-suggestion. This is either the wrong kind of engagement for me, or maybe &quot;teaching&quot; me to move my full work process into the chat. I&#x27;ve asked it many times to give concise answers and to not offer suggestions like this, but the suggestions are really baked in.
    • DGAP1 hour ago
      Why do you think they hired Fidji Simo?
    • aurareturn13 hours ago
      I don&#x27;t have a problem with the suggestions. Google search does the same at the end of searches.<p>It does very often suggest things I want to know more about.
      • sonink12 hours ago
        Suggestions are absolutely fine. But this is baiting. Chatgpt could have easily given me that information without the bait. And I would have happily consumed it. And maybe if it did it once, it was fine - but it kept on doing it - bait after bait after bait.<p>The objective was to increase the engagement &quot;metrics&quot; clearly. The seems to me as if the leadership will take all &#x27;shortcuts&#x27; required for growth.
        • llm_nerd12 hours ago
          This seems overly cynical.<p>Firstly, tl;dr; is a very real thing. If the user asks a question and the LLM both answers the question but then writes an essay about every probable subsequent question, that would be negatively overwhelming to most people, and few would think that&#x27;s a good idea. That isn&#x27;t how a conversation works, either.<p>Worse still if you&#x27;re on a usage quota or are paying by token and you ask a simple question and it gives you volumes of unasked information, most people would be very cynical about <i>that</i>, noting that they&#x27;re trying to saturate usage unprompted.<p>Gemini often does the &quot;Would you like to know more about {XYZ}&quot; end to a response, and as an adult capable of making decisions and controlling my urges, 9 times out of 10 I just ignore it and move on having had my original question satisfied without digging deeper. I don&#x27;t see the big issue here. Every now and then it piques me, though, and I actually find it beneficial.<p>The prompts for possible&#x2F;probable follow-up lines of inquiry are a non-issue, and I see no issue at all with them. They are <i>nothing</i> compared to the user-glazing that these LLMs do.
          • markers12 hours ago
            Have you used ChatGPT lately?<p>What you describe is not quite what they are doing, they are adding nudges at the end of the follow-up question suggestions. For instance I was researching some IKEA furniture and it gives suggestions for followup, with nudges in parenthesis &quot;IKEA-furniture many people use for this (very cool solution)&quot; and at the end of another question suggestion: &quot;(very simple, but surprisingly effective)&quot;. They are subtle cliffhangers trying to influence you to go on, not pure suggestions. I&#x27;m just waiting for the &quot;(You wouldn&#x27;t believe that this did!)&quot;. It has soured me on the service, Claude has a much better personality imo.
            • sk5t11 hours ago
              Yes, it very closely parallels the “one weird trick” bait from a decade ago.
            • llm_nerd10 hours ago
              No, I don&#x27;t use OpenAI products. Sam Altman is a weird creep and the company is headed into the abyss, so it isn&#x27;t my cup.<p>However the original complaint was about continuation suggestions, which are a good feature and I suspect most users appreciate them. If ChatGPT uses bait or leading teases, then sure that&#x27;s bad.
              • fhub1 hour ago
                The current A&#x2F;B test I seem to be in is that bad. But it will likely drive the metrics they are trying to drive.
      • fhub12 hours ago
        Then just write the extra paragraph rather than bait?
        • IMTDb12 hours ago
          Bait what exactly ? Getting the user to type &quot;yes&quot; ? Great accomplishment.<p>Sometimes I want the extra paragraph, sometimes I don&#x27;t. Sometimes I like the suggested follow up, sometimes I don&#x27;t. Sometimes I have half an hour in front of me to keep digging into a subject, sometimes I don&#x27;t.<p>Why should the LLM &quot;just write the extra paragraph&quot; (consuming electricity in the process) to a potential follow up question a user might, or might not, have ? If I write a simple question I hope to get a simple answer, not a whole essay answering stuff I did not explicitly ask for. And If I want to go deeper, typing 3 letters is not exactly a huge cost.
          • knollimar2 hours ago
            You send all the tokens an extra time at least
            • alex435781 hour ago
              I’m not privy to their data on what this does to engagement, but intuitively it seems like the extra inference&#x2F;token cost this incurs doesn’t align with their current model.<p>If they were doing it to API customers, sure, but getting the free or flat-rate customers to use more tokens seems counterproductive.
              • zdragnar1 hour ago
                It juices their &quot;engagement&quot; metrics, which is the drug of choice for investors, right up there with net promoter scores.
    • benterix5 hours ago
      Google is doing the same, these managers all use what they know, that is following KPIS like MAUs etc.
    • maxehmookau11 hours ago
      &gt; &quot;Can I tell you one more thing from your X,Y,Z results which is most doctors miss ? &quot;<p>That&#x27;s actually gross and would result in an immediate delete from me.
    • DiscourseFan12 hours ago
      Well they are realizing they just can&#x27;t compete in terms of raw productivity gains with Anthropic, their moat is in their brand and user base (and government contracts, I suppose, at least while Trump is still in office--although a few years of setting up the architecture might be enough to cement it there).
    • surgical_fire12 hours ago
      Ironically, I found the recent models engage a lot less in sycophant behavior than in ChatGPT 4 days.<p>Maybe it&#x27;s the way I prompt it or maybe something I set in the personalization settings? It questions some decisions I make, point out flaws in my rationale, and so on.<p>It still has AI quirks that annoy me, but it&#x27;s mostly harmless - it repeats the same terms and puns often enough that it makes me super aware that it is a text generator trying to behave as a human.<p>But thankfully it stopped glazing over any brainfart I have as if it was a masterstroke of superior human intelligence. I haven&#x27;t seen one of those in quite a while.<p>I don&#x27;t find the suggestions at the end of messages bad. I often ignore those, but at some points I find them useful. And I noticed that when I start a chat session with a definite goal stated, it stops suggesting follow ups once the goal is reached.
    • llm_nerd12 hours ago
      Gemini does the same thing. For every question it looks to extend the conversation into natural follow-up questions, always ending a response with &quot;Would you like to know more about {some important aspect of the answer}?&quot;<p>And...I don&#x27;t see it as a bad thing. It&#x27;s trying to encourage use of the tool by reducing the friction to continued conversations, making it an ordinary part of your life by proving that it provides value. It&#x27;s similar to Netflix telling you other shows you might like because they want to continue providing value to justify the subscription.
      • Al-Khwarizmi26 minutes ago
        My impression is that Gemini does it in a quite natural way. It answers your questions, and then suggests possible related questions that you might ask, which I find useful.<p>But ChatGPT feels extremely baity. Like it doesn&#x27;t answer your question, but only 80% of it, leaving the other 20% on purpose for the bait. And then when you ask the second question it answers with another incomplete fact leaving things for the bait, and so on.<p>As an analogy, it&#x27;s as if when asked for the seasons of the year, Gemini said &quot;spring, summer, autumn and winter, do you also want to know when each season starts and ends, or maybe they climate?&quot; and ChatGPT said &quot;The first three seasons are spring, summer and autumn. The fourth one is really interesting and many people don&#x27;t know it, would you like to tell me about it?&quot; It&#x27;s an exaggeration, of course, but in complex questions it feels to me exactly like that. And I find it so annoying that I&#x27;m thinking of canceling my subscription if it keeps behaving that way.
      • miroljub11 hours ago
        &gt; Gemini does the same thing. For every question it looks to extend the conversation into natural follow-up questions, always ending a response with &quot;Would you like to know more about {some important aspect of the answer}?&quot;<p>If the aspect of the answer is important, wouldn&#x27;t it be better just not to skip it?<p>&gt; And...I don&#x27;t see it as a bad thing. It&#x27;s trying to encourage use of the tool by reducing the friction to continued conversations, making it an ordinary part of your life by proving that it provides value.<p>To me, it just adds friction. Why do I have to beg and ask multiple times to get an answer they already know I&#x27;m looking for but still decide to withhold? It&#x27;s neither natural nor helpful. It&#x27;s manipulative.<p>&gt; It&#x27;s similar to Netflix telling you other shows you might like because they want to continue providing value to justify the subscription.<p>It&#x27;s not the same, because Netflix doesn&#x27;t hide important movie sequences from you behind a question &quot;If you like, I can show you this important scene that I just fast forwarded.&quot;
        • llm_nerd11 hours ago
          Groan. This is performative outrage and it&#x27;s just boorish. The other person noted that ChatGPT uses bait-type continuations (Gemini and Claude do not), and sure that is a problem, but your reply is just noise. Beg? Christ.<p>There is utterly nothing wrong with AI engines offering continuation questions. But there&#x27;s always something for people to whine about.<p>Humans do not want to ask a question and get a book in response. They just <i>don&#x27;t</i>. No one, including you, wants such a response. And if you did get such a response I absolutely guarantee, given this performative outrage, that you&#x27;d be the first to complain about it.
          • CursedSilicon10 hours ago
            People having different opinions to you is not &quot;performative&quot;
            • llm_nerd10 hours ago
              &quot;Why do I have to beg and ask multiple times to get an answer they already know I&#x27;m looking for but still decide to withhold?&quot;<p>Performative with zero correlation with the actual topic at hand, but purposefully using ridiculously leading language to bait the gullible (which apparently includes you). It has nothing to do with a different opinion, it&#x27;s someone choosing a polarised position and then just streaming nonsense to support it.<p>And I mean, then I looked at the rest of their comments on this site and it all made sense and was perfectly on brand. Facebook-tier rhetoric.<p>So maybe you should save white knighting for trolls?<p>EDIT: the troll is now opining that these are LLM-generated. Good god.
              • CursedSilicon10 hours ago
                Am I gullible or white knighting?<p>Or do I simply disagree with you enough to comment?<p>I guess you could go ask the slop machine and come back :)
                • miroljub9 hours ago
                  I&#x27;m pretty sure the last two llm_nerd&#x27;s comments were AI generated.<p>What I am not sure about is if it was just laziness or a subtle prank showing how AI can be used to manipulate users to more interaction in a Facebook way.
                  • CursedSilicon7 hours ago
                    I don&#x27;t think it&#x27;s (all) AI generated. But they seem to be weirdly determined to gaslight me about my own opinions on their comments<p>Thinking way too deeply into it. Maybe <i>that&#x27;s</i> the troll. &quot;Look how easily manipulated people are. I don&#x27;t even need AI to do it!&quot;
                • llm_nerd8 hours ago
                  &gt;Am I gullible or white knighting?<p>Why do you think these are exclusive choices? You are gullibly white knighting for an obvious troll. Their other reply to you betrays that they&#x27;re just a noisemaker, and you&#x27;re dutifully carrying water for them.
                  • CursedSilicon7 hours ago
                    Nah. Their reply was far more nuanced than your weird gaslighting of &quot;you don&#x27;t have your own opinions! You&#x27;re being trolled by the person you agree with!&quot;
                    • llm_nerd7 hours ago
                      I have no idea what your &quot;opinion&quot; is here. You ran in to defend someone, bizarrely, and you keep yipping about how you&#x27;re being gaslit. Bizarre stuff.<p>Wait, maybe you&#x27;ve been an LLM all along!<p>Anyway, I think I&#x27;m done with you, so hope you have a good day. Go back and reply with the alt, after consulting the &quot;slop machine&quot;. :)
                      • CursedSilicon6 hours ago
                        Anything to defend your own ego I suppose...
      • underlipton1 hour ago
        The line between, &quot;You knew I wanted you to do that, and you didn&#x27;t, so you could ask me if you could, to increase engagement&#x2F;token use,&quot; and, &quot;No, that&#x27;s completely extraneous, I don&#x27;t want to do that at all,&quot; is razor-thin (tantamount to nonexistent). Either it takes time and energy to determine if the suggestion is actually useful, or it&#x27;s annoying to see because I will always have my own idea of what I want to happen next (if at all) that it rarely hits on.<p>Anyone who has the same perspective sees it as a bad thing. There are at least 10 of us.<p>&gt;It&#x27;s trying to encourage use of the tool<p>Don&#x27;t fracking do that, either the tool is useful or it isn&#x27;t.
    • dheera2 hours ago
      &gt; Can I tell you one more thing from your X,Y,Z results which is most doctors miss?<p>I absolutely hate this influencer-ish behavior. If there&#x27;s something most people miss just state it. That&#x27;s why I&#x27;m using the assistant.<p>This form of dialogue is a big part of why I use GPT less now.
      • debugnik2 hours ago
        &gt; If there&#x27;s something most people miss just state it.<p>But the LLM suggesting a question doesn&#x27;t mean it has a good answer to converge to.<p>If you actually ask, the model probabilities will be pressured to come up with something, anything, to follow up on the offer, which will be nonsense if there actually weren&#x27;t anything else to add.<p>I&#x27;ve seen this pattern fail a lot on roleplay (e.g. AI Dungeon) so I really dislike it when LLMs end with a question. A &quot;sufficiently smart LLM&quot; would have enough foresight to know it&#x27;s writing itself into a dead end.
        • skeeter20201 hour ago
          You should be careful with ideas like &quot;sufficiently smart LLM&quot; - quotes and all. There&#x27;s no intelligence here, just next token prediction. And the idea of an LLM being self-aware is ludicrous. Ask one what the difference between hallucinations and lying is and get a list similar to this why the LLM isn&#x27;t lying:<p>- No intent, beliefs, or awareness<p>- No concept of “know” truth vs. falsehood<p>- A byproduct of how it predicts text based on patterns<p>- Arises from probabilistic text generation<p>- A model fills gaps when it lacks reliable knowledge<p>- Errors often look confident because the system optimizes for fluency, not truth<p>- Produces outputs that statistically resemble true statements<p>- Not an agent, no moral responsibility<p>- Lacks “committment” to a claim unless specifically designed to track it
    • forrestthewoods1 hour ago
      omg this x1000<p>I’ve been very happy with Claude Code. I saw enough positive things about Codex being better I bought a sub to give it a whirl.<p>ChatGPT&#x2F;Codex’s insistence on ending EVERY message or operation with a “would you like to do X next” is infuriating. I just want codex to write and implement a damn plan until it is done. Stop quitting and the middle and stop suggesting next steps. Just do the damn thing.<p>Cancelled and back to Claude Code.
    • MagicMoonlight11 hours ago
      I’m surprised they’ve been so puritan in their approach to content frankly.<p>If they made ChatGPT flirt with the user, they would send engagement through the roof. Imagine all the horny men that would subscribe to plus when the virtual girl runs out of messages.
      • CursedSilicon10 hours ago
        Isn&#x27;t that what Grok is for? It already called itself &quot;Mecha Hitler&quot; so it knows what its users (and creator) want
    • kagi_202613 hours ago
      [flagged]
    • dominotw2 hours ago
      claude code does this too.
  • cmiles812 hours ago
    There’s a strong chance the IPO window has passed. I just don’t see investors willing to jump in here given all the questions about the financial viability of AI.<p>The bulk of those investing now are broadly just pumping cash into the fire to keep their prior investments from going to zero.<p>We have hit a mass deceleration of what the current tech can do with transformers. The tech is also on a path to hyper-commoditization which will destroy the value of the big players as there zero moat to be had here. Absent a new major breakthrough it looks like we’re well on our way into the “trough of disillusionment” for the current AI hype cycle.<p>Will be interesting to see how all this plays out, but get your popcorn ready.
    • LZ_Khan32 minutes ago
      Damn the narrative was just at &quot;we are entering RSI&quot; and this week all of a sudden it changed to &quot;Transformers hit a wall AI winter is coming.&quot;<p>Very suspicious.
    • chollida112 hours ago
      &gt; There’s a strong chance the IPO window has passed<p>Ha, i&#x27;ll take the other side of that bet. I&#x27;m not sure why you think they couldn&#x27;t possibly IPO and you don&#x27;t really specify why in your post.<p>Having been in the capital markets for 20 years, now is one of the better times to IPO and I&#x27;d bet that both OpenAI and Anthropic will IPO within 12 months.<p>There are lots of games you can play like releasing a small 10% float) if you are worried about not enough buyers.
      • mattfrommars2 hours ago
        Agreed. This year around is the best time for OpenAI related firm to IPO. The stock market has been resilient reaching and hovering around ATH. Along with them, SpaceX plans to IPO and will force index fund to purchase their shares at trillion dollar evaluation.<p>OpenAI and SpaceX firms need exit liquidity - and markets are ready!<p>My advise for retails folks is to stay invested in the market since these trillion dollar companies cannot afford market to tank at all.
      • cik12 hours ago
        100% agreed. There&#x27;s so much locked up appetite for IPOs, both from the tech crowd and the general public. There have been very few quality IPOs since COVID frankly.<p>I&#x27;ll wager that the IPO market can actually absorb all three of these that yes, are the size of the last 10 years combined. The trading market itself is larger, as are values, and valuations.<p>I assume that to maximize value you see a standard lock and roll play here. The S-1 will declare the 10% release, with commentary about future (6 or 12 months) another 5%. Plus don&#x27;t forget institutional. There&#x27;s ample space here, even before the Nasdaq 100 changes that are <i>probably</i> coming into play. If those come into play then inflows accelerated, as did valuations.
      • financetechbro8 hours ago
        I was in the capital markets during the COVID era, focusing on transactions for tech companies. I will take the bet that if OAI tries to IPO it will be WeWork 2.0 x100. Get ready for an even more creative version of “Community adjusted EBITDA”<p>On the real though, I am not sure how a 20yr veteran can say this is the best time for an IPO. Not only is a 10% float still absolutely massive, but the world is extremely unstable with the war in Iran and the US is in a recession when you factor out inflated growth driven by AI. Not to mention the Yen carry trade unwinding - there is so much loaded in the economy ready to blow up… I think the facade will collapse if OAI actually goes for it.
        • chollida15 hours ago
          Umm the yen carry trade unwound in August of 2024. It hasn’t been a factor in the markets for over a year:)<p>&gt; On the real though, I am not sure how a 20yr veteran can say this is the best time for an IPO.<p>The best time for an open AI and anthropic ipo. They are hot now, the macro environment doesn’t weigh into that calculus.<p>Also a 10% float isn’t massive, most companies ipo with anywhere from 20-40% of their total share count.<p>And being a 20 year veteran means you can cut through all the noise you mention and focuse in what matters. At all most all points in History there is doom and gloom, 20 years gives you the experience to know most of the doom and gloom never matters.<p>You go public when you get the chance.<p>I appreciate you comment and I hope I helped update your understanding of how things work!!
          • financetechbro5 hours ago
            Current valuation of OAI is $840bn. 10% float is $80bn, largest US IPO was BABA at $24bn, how is this not massive?
            • chollida15 hours ago
              Oh, sorry I thought you meant the percentage would be huge.<p>Yes it’s a big ipo but early indications are that they’d be about 2x over subscribed if they ipo’d today from what the sell side is saying and I don’t doubt it from what other funds are saying.
              • financetechbro4 hours ago
                Ah understood. It will be fascinating to see how this plays out… OAI needs money one way or another. Thanks for the discourse
    • pera12 hours ago
      The Private Equity world already has a solution for this:<p><i>Nasdaq&#x27;s Shame</i><p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=47392550">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=47392550</a>
    • aurareturn11 hours ago
      <p><pre><code> There’s a strong chance the IPO window has passed. I just don’t see investors willing to jump in here given all the questions about the financial viability of AI. </code></pre> My guess, it has barely started. I think nearly all AI IPOs have done well so far.
    • newsclues12 hours ago
      Unless the play is the fleece retail investors
      • cmiles812 hours ago
        True, although even here there likely aren’t enough retail suckers to go around given the amount of initial investment folks need to cash in. Thats the challenge when you have so much crazy pre-IPO cash pumped in.<p>After you float you still need to sell all those shares at the valuations you want to exit. If they floated say 10% of shares to go public and the price tanks everyone else trying to exit loses their shirt so it’s not a magic exit for the early investors.
        • Ekaros12 hours ago
          The size of these companies make be doubtful of retail being able to fund them. There being enough retail investors with enough liquid funds who are willing to jump on this.<p>Lot of retail is in various funds. So those doing active management to scale of this is questionable. And then you most likely also have downward pressure for those that try to bet against these IPOs...
          • FartyMcFarter12 hours ago
            There&#x27;s always the Softbanks of the world.
        • newsclues10 hours ago
          Boomers are the perfect suckers at this point<p>My boomer mom is the kind of person who just heard about AI and would get IPO fomo
      • DaedalusII12 hours ago
        there arent enough retail investors in the world to buy this ipo<p>but they will get a lot of flow from sovereign wealth fund and pensions<p>you might wonder why anthropic spend time in australia, a country with less economy than canada and almost no industry at all? likely because it has very big pension fund pool to buy their ipo
      • thegreatpeter12 hours ago
        Retail investors do just fine fleecing themselves on their own<p>The term fleecing means „there’s nothing left here, jump ship”. Do you really believe they’re going public to cash out this early in the game?
    • 7thpower12 hours ago
      You must be living on a different planet than me. Enterprises are just now seeing that these technologies can actually have an impact, and the companies do not have a discretionary cost cap the same way consumers&#x2F;hobbyists do, so they will pay based on value.
    • badgersnake12 hours ago
      I would expect a lot of smart money to flow out of the Nasdaq-100 trackers in anticipation of this grift.
      • DaedalusII12 hours ago
        nasdaq listings can be rough, not sure if anyone remember fb ipo<p>but how else will they own spacex, openai, anthropic, nvidia, in such concentration
    • surgical_fire12 hours ago
      [flagged]
      • CursedSilicon10 hours ago
        Hey uh. Slurs aren&#x27;t cool.<p>You could&#x27;ve just as easily said &quot;investors are morons&quot; and had the same connotations without disparaging a group of people
        • tartuffe7810 hours ago
          Apparently morons once meant the same thing<p>ARCHAIC•MEDICINE a person having low intelligence or an intellectual disability.
        • surgical_fire8 hours ago
          I disagree, and I also don&#x27;t care. I really despise this sort language policing, it is clear what my message was.<p>The only group of people I disparaged are Tesla investors, deservingly so.<p>Other types of mentally impaired people have my full sympathy, and that includes charity.
          • CursedSilicon7 hours ago
            The thing about using slurs is when you respond with &quot;but [group] <i>deserved</i> it!&quot; you&#x27;ve implied that you&#x27;re happy to use it against someone if you subjectively believe they&#x27;re &quot;deserving&quot; and that the term should be received negatively
            • surgical_fire7 hours ago
              Incidentally, I don&#x27;t refer to other types of mentally impaired people as &quot;retard&quot;. The word has a negative connotation, similarly to &quot;moron&quot;.<p>Both terms obviously should be received negatively, they are insults. That&#x27;s how insults work.<p>I am happy to refer to more groups, not only Tesla investors, as retards too. I&#x27;ll leave this as an exercise to imagination.
              • CursedSilicon7 hours ago
                I&#x27;m very sorry for the person you choose to be, then
                • surgical_fire7 hours ago
                  Because I understand that insults are insults, and use them accordingly?<p>Maybe you are running out of things to feel sorry about.<p>Either way, this conversation has run its course. Have a wonderful rest of your day.
  • tyleo12 hours ago
    ChatGPT seems to have become a LinkedIn lunatic. I just asked Opus and ChatGPT to explain bitonic sort:<p>Opus: Let me build an interactive explainer for bitonic sort (builds diagram&#x2F;no nonsense)<p>GPT:<p>&quot;This algorithm feels weird but once you see it it clicks&quot;<p>(Emoji) The Core Idea ...; (Emoji) High-Level Flow ...; (Emoji) Superpower ...; (Emoji) Why You Should Care;<p>&quot;If you want, I can: ... (things it wants me to do next)&quot;
  • sireat7 hours ago
    The latest clickbait style can be mitigated by custom instructions. I use: &quot;Tell it like it is; don&#x27;t sugar-coat responses. Use academic university level explanations unless instructed otherwise. Do not end with teaser offers or curiosity hooks. Give the full answer immediately. If related topics exist, show them as a brief bullet list. Use professional language and style.&quot;<p>Now I actually often like the related topics hooks, just not the clickbaity version from last few weeks.<p>If not for Codex performing so well for me from VS Code I&#x27;d happily migrate to Claude or Gemini.
  • Aboutplants1 hour ago
    What happens when Microsoft stops using ChatGpt as their main LLM for CoPilot? I feel the death knell when that occurs
  • jrjeksjd8d12 hours ago
    The quoted revenue numbers seem insane, but I guess it&#x27;s the result of corporate deals where every developer seat is hundreds of dollars a month?<p>My job has been publicly promoting who&#x27;s on top of the &quot;AI use dashboard&quot; while our whole product falls apart. Surely this house of cards has to collapse at some point, better get public money before it does.
    • MeetingsBrowser12 hours ago
      At least I’m not alone.<p>My company has a vibe coded leaderboard tracking AI usage.<p>Our token usage and number of lines changed will affect our performance review this year.
      • jrjeksjd8d2 hours ago
        I have started using the most token-intensive model I can find and asking for complicated tasks (rewrite this large codebase, review the resulting code, etc.)<p>The agent will churn in a loop for a good 15-20 minutes and make the leaderboard number go up. The result is verbose and useless but it satisfies the metrics from leadership.
      • georgemcbay3 hours ago
        &gt; Our token usage and number of lines changed will affect our performance review this year.<p>The AI-era equivalent of that old Dilbert strip about rewarding developers directly for fixing bugs (&quot;I&#x27;m gonna write me a new mini-van this afternoon!&quot;) just substitute intentional bug creation with setting up a simple agent loop to burn tokens on random unnecessary refactoring.
      • dgellow11 hours ago
        Could you both name and shame?
        • porridgeraisin11 hours ago
          Name pretty much any company. Every one of my friends have said their company is doing this. Across 3 countries mind you. Especially if they already use microsoft office suite. Those folks got sold copilot on a deal it seems.
          • eikenberry1 hour ago
            Opposite. Everyone of my friend&#x27;s companies don&#x27;t do this. They all work at smaller companies though, which I bet is the difference.
  • aurareturn12 hours ago
    <p><pre><code> One thing odd, maybe just to me, is why OpenAI has been stuffing its ranks with former Facebookers who are known to juice growth, find edges, and keep people addicted. They have little background in getting enterprises to buy into a product. Simo herself ran the Facebook app. That organization’s genius is consumer engagement: behavioral hooks, dopamine loops, the relentless optimization of the feed. You can see that in the recent iterations of ChatGPT. It has become such a sycophant, and creates answers and options, that you end up engaging with it. That’s juicing growth. Facebook style. </code></pre> This is because ChatGPT is gearing up to sell ads. It&#x27;s the only way to sustain a free chat service in the long term. Ads require engagement and usage. Hiring former Meta employees for this is smart business - even if HN crowd doesn&#x27;t like it.<p>People say OpenAI is burning money and is on the verge of collapse. The same people will say OpenAI building an ads business on ChatGPT is &quot;enshittifcation&quot;. These people are quite insufferable, no offense to the many who are exactly as I described.
    • pipnonsense12 hours ago
      So that’s why I am getting clickbaity last sentences in every response now at ChatGPT.<p>Things like <i>”If you want, I can also show a very fast Photoshop-style trick in Krita that lets you drag-copy an area in one step (without copy&#x2F;paste). It’s hidden but extremely useful.”</i><p>Every single chat now has it. Not only the conversational prompt with “I can continue talking about this”, but very clickbaity terms like: almost nobody knows about this, you will be surprised, all VIPs are now using this car, do you want to know which it is? Etc
      • KellyCriterion12 hours ago
        I find -again- Claude (web) here outstanding &amp; very comfortable:<p>In most of my discussions throughout the day, it doesnt ask any &quot;follow up&quot; questions at the end. Very often it says thingslike: &quot;you have two options: A - ..... and B - while the one includes X and the other Y...&quot;<p>But this is was OP underlined: Claude is popular amongst businesses, most &quot;non-tech&quot; people dont even know that it exists.
      • buzzy_hacker12 hours ago
        Same here. “Do you want the one useful tip related to this topic that most people miss? It’s quite surprising.”<p>If it were so useful, just tell me in the first place! If you say “Yes” then it’s usually just a regurgitation of your prior conversation, not actually new information.<p>This immediately smelled of engagement bait as soon as the pattern started recently. It’s omnipresent and annoying.
        • dostick12 hours ago
          Yes, ChatGPT just recently started to add these engagement phrased follow-ups; “If you want, I can also show you one very common sign people miss that tells you…”
        • Esophagus412 hours ago
          You can tell it not to do this in your personalized context.<p>The model doesn’t always obey it, but 80% of the time it’s worked for me.
      • dkrich12 hours ago
        This and also constantly saying stupid things like “yes that is a great observation and that’s how the pros do it for this very reason!” for a specific question that doesn’t apply to anything anyone else is doing
      • jjallen12 hours ago
        This is not just OpenAI though. I don’t think this is new in general for these AI chat apps. Claude at the very least asks a question as the last part of its responses I believe every time.
      • Bengalilol12 hours ago
        Those &quot;Prompt-YES-baity&quot; last sentences are somehow counterproductive.
    • darth_avocado1 hour ago
      &gt; One thing odd, maybe just to me, is why OpenAI has been stuffing its ranks with former Facebookers who are known to juice growth, find edges, and keep people addicted<p>There is a very simple answer for this: that’s how leadership ranks work in SV. When one “leader” moves from Company A to Company B, a lot of existing employees are pushed out or sidelined, and the ranks are filled with loyalists from previous companies. Sometimes this works out, but a lot of time it doesn’t and it stays that way until another “leader” is brought in. What’s good for the company doesn’t matter unless there clear incentives and targets lined out for them.
    • deanc12 hours ago
      AI is ubiquitous to the point where it&#x27;s permeating almost every desk job in the world. Even those who don&#x27;t work are using AI to help them find work, research health problems, ask questions about their daily life. I can&#x27;t think of anything else since the invention of the internet that has had this much of an impact on people&#x27;s lives.<p>People will have to pay for this. I don&#x27;t see it being free for long other than a few chats a day. If most people in the world are paying 10-200 bucks a month then AI companies will make money, and I doubt they will need to rely much on ads at all.
      • sanitycheck12 hours ago
        Anecdotally I know approximately zero &#x27;normal&#x27; (non-tech) people who are intentionally using generative AI, several who have been badly misled by Google&#x27;s AI summaries, and quite a few who are vehemently anti-AI (usually artists and writers).<p>(Except when mandated by their employers, which nobody is happy about or finds particularly useful.)
        • deanc12 hours ago
          Every single person I know outside of my profession is using it, including all relatives of all ages. Even if it&#x27;s at the top of the google search results :)
      • pipnonsense12 hours ago
        Or people are just using as much because it is free.
      • bananaflag12 hours ago
        On the other hand, costs are getting lower with time.<p>Sort of how now I have an unlimited 5G data plan for like 10 dollars, and in 2011 I didn&#x27;t even have Internet on my phone. This is happening also with AI.
    • reactordev12 hours ago
      100%. It’s about to become the sleaziest used car salesman the internet has ever seen.
    • DarkNova612 hours ago
      In other words, they need more experts on enshittification.
    • Esophagus412 hours ago
      The worst are the ones who say things like “OpenAI only has 5% paying users!” As if that’s a really bad number. That is the same ratio YouTube, the world’s largest media company, has. And ChatGPT has like 800m users after only a few years of existence.<p>And “once they sell ads, they’ll lose all their users!” As if that happened to FB, Google, YouTube, or Instagram…<p>Some people are really rooting for the downfall of OpenAI that will simply not happen, and their rage makes them utterly unreasonable.
  • wewewedxfgdf12 hours ago
    OpenAI needs to focus on how Claude is leaving them in the dust for LLM assisted coding.
    • TranquilMarmot2 hours ago
      .... did you read the post? Half of it is about this
  • outside123427 minutes ago
    &quot;IPO to dump this pile of debt that is about to collapse on unsuspecting index fund buyers&quot;
  • chirau12 hours ago
    How does a non-employee get exposure to the OpenAI IPO?
    • avnfish12 hours ago
      There are some side-bet experiments like $2Mn on Hyperliquid[1], $1Mn on Polymarket[2] which are available to everyone. Unfortunately companies stay private for longer these days and a seat at the big boy table is de facto impossible<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;app.hyperliquid.xyz&#x2F;trade&#x2F;vntl:OPENAI" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;app.hyperliquid.xyz&#x2F;trade&#x2F;vntl:OPENAI</a><p>[2] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;polymarket.com&#x2F;event&#x2F;openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-above" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;polymarket.com&#x2F;event&#x2F;openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-a...</a>
    • zurfer12 hours ago
      Buy public openai investors, e.g. Microsoft. It&#x27;s diluted but easy.
    • DaedalusII12 hours ago
      simple, just have a private bank relationship<p>jpm and gs will let you open an account in the us if you have $50m cash
  • pop_calc12 hours ago
    Is it just me, or has Om become almost entirely unreadable of late? This post is 80% posturing about the WSJ&#x27;s ‘narrative’ and 20% vague metaphors about ‘souls’ and ‘spigots’. It’s essentially tech-themed poetry. I appreciate he’s cynical about the AI hype cycle, but there’s absolutely no signal here. Ben Thompson might be equally enamoured with his own voice, but he at least tethers his ego to actual unit economics and a framework you can test. Om is just sharing a mood board and calling it analysis
  • spacecadet12 hours ago
    As I said, from AGI to IPO and everyone will forget and move on.
  • ModernMech5 hours ago
    I got an ad for the first time in ChatGPT yesterday. Expected, but no thanks, I&#x27;m already done with this new focus.
  • rvz12 hours ago
    The &quot;I&quot; in AGI stands for IPO.
  • keyle12 hours ago
    Time to jump ship.<p>I have noticed 5.3 in xtra high was a turd today. High used to be enough for most of my use cases. xhigh used to surprise me. Now it&#x27;s incapable of following the very first instructions.<p>I just hope open source models get as good as last few month&#x27;s top models before the enshittification has gone too far.
    • girvo12 hours ago
      Qwen3.5 (-plus, which isn’t actually open to be fair) is surprisingly decent I’ve found.
  • porridgeraisin11 hours ago
    In general &quot;stickyness&quot; among developers isn&#x27;t that high, the way it is for consumers. Or the insane stickyness in &quot;big boy contracts&quot; government, accenture, etc,.<p>So I feel like the company which does these huge contracts will at the end eat up the coding business for nothing. The only way to avoid that is for anthropic to build up a huge IP lead in the code agent space. That is too difficult in my opinion. Because its hard to get exclusive access to code itself, the data advantage is not going to be there. Compute advantage is also difficult. And it&#x27;s very difficult to hold on to architectural IP advantages in the LLM space.<p>Even if you get yourself embedded deep into traditional coding workflows (integrations with VCS, CI, IDEs, code forges, etc), usually SW infrastructure tends to like things decoupled through interfaces. Example: the most popular way to using code agents is the separate TUI application claude code which `cat`s and `grep`s your code. MCP, etc,. This means substitute-ability which is bad news.<p>I was thinking of ways these companies can actually get the coding business. One idea I had was to make proprietary context management tools that collect information over time and keep them permanent. And proprietary ways to correctly access them when needed. Here lock-in is real - you do the usual sleazy company things, you make it difficult to migrate &quot;org understanding&quot; out of your data format (it might even be technically difficult in reality). And that way there is perpetual lock-in. It even compounds over time. &quot;Switch to my competitor and start your understanding from scratch reducing productivity by 37%, OR agree to my increased prices!&quot;. But amazing context management for coding tools is yet to be developed. Right now it is mostly slicing and combining a few markdown files, and `grep`, which is not exactly IP.<p>&quot;The moat is state&quot;
  • uncacheable887411 hours ago
    old article but still relevant. some things don&#x27;t change
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  • allovertheworld12 hours ago
    Focus on programming since they just bruteforce the type checkers&#x2F;compilers to find out if their slop was correct the first time.<p>Basically an illusion. Imagine if they focused on medical tech instead? You cant bruteforce vaccines or radiation therapy
    • petcat12 hours ago
      &gt; they just bruteforce the type checkers&#x2F;compilers to find out if their slop was correct<p>Have you used an AI coding model at all in the last year and a half? I think your knowledge is pretty outdated now.
      • allovertheworld12 hours ago
        Yes, gpt 5.4 always tries to compile&#x2F;check my c++ code after every prompt. Despite it being in my AGENTS.md to never run builds. Then I have to explicitly mention it, but it will do it again randomly after.<p>What this means is the training&#x2F;RL was trained with this workflow ;) But as you can tell, this workflow has no uses outside programming. Its just a hack to make it seem like the model is smart, but in fact its just them performing loops to get it right.
        • dana32112 hours ago
          All the models ignore specific instructions most of the time.<p>It requires follow-up instructions to get it to do what you want.<p>By the time its farted around and you have farted around reprompting it you could have done the change yourself.
  • wcgan713 hours ago
    I thought it is against OpenAI interest to IPO, especially now that it has made a deal with the Pentagon. IPO would likely prevent the company from burning money at the current rate and pursue shorter terms profit.
    • jacquesm12 hours ago
      It&#x27;s not about OpenAI&#x27;s interest, it is about the current stockholders&#x27; ability to divest OpenAI stock on people who don&#x27;t know what the state of affairs in the AI domain is where OpenAI still has tremendous name recognition. If they don&#x27;t IPO then they&#x27;ll lose that window of opportunity, the stock market is super precarious right now and if it should tank the IPO window will close for a long time.
  • tmatsuzaki1 hour ago
    I feel like OpenAI has been executing extremely well since it started leaning harder into Codex.<p>Right now, the people who really see it are power users of AI and software engineers. Most equity investors still don’t seem to get it.<p>It feels like the calm before the storm. A lot of the groundwork is being laid quietly beneath the surface.<p>And at least in the country where I live, I can already feel real momentum building around enterprise adoption, both in terms of partnerships and go-to-market structure.