5 comments

  • franze4 hours ago
    I found the development of my Triclock[1] interesting. Stayed in Show HN for 3 days, never reached the frontpage, 65 upvotes. So a popular 3 day evergreen. All other of my Show HN were Crash &amp; Burn or Burn &amp; Shine<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=46975399">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=46975399</a>
    • kianN3 hours ago
      Yeah Show HN has a pretty interesting distribution compared to standard posts due to the long-term visibility on the Show page. The odds of a Show HN post breaking 10 points is significantly higher than an average post, but of the posts that clear 10 points, I recall the likelihood of breaking 100 points to be similar to a regular post.<p>As a sidenote: That clock is so cool: I was just mesmerized for multiple minutes!
  • vessenes6 hours ago
    Cool. I think it would be nice to normalize against users (or active users).<p>2016-era HN had its share of negativism, but it also had a lot less people - the light green from those charts is misleading.
    • dvaun2 hours ago
      Pre-2020 had far more informative posts and discussions. While we still have decent conversations post-covid, the quality has slid downhill somewhat.
    • kianN5 hours ago
      I totally agree that the metric is imperfect for a long term analysis. I was initially leaning toward a quantile based approach to really focus in on topic trends over time, but when I was initially exploring the data, the relative challenge of having a Show HN become popular in 2025 compared to previous years caught my curiosity, and for this decade I felt a static cutoff provided a simple and easy to understand threshold.<p>I do think as a metric for total reach, a static cutoff actually works reasonably well. I think some form of square root normalization over total users is probably the best balance.
  • Scipio_Afri4 hours ago
    Great. Do you have any details on how you produced this? The &quot;reproducible code&quot; isn&#x27;t really reproducible. The &quot;hierarchical topic model&quot; that you mentioned - which model was used?
    • kianN4 hours ago
      The code provided is to reproduce the analytical results from the annotated data; my impression is that you&#x27;re more interested in the details of the annotation process than running into an issue with that code?<p>My company&#x27;s core technology extends topic models to enable arbitrary hierarchical graphs, with additional branches beyond the topic and word branch. We expose those annotations in a SQL interface. It&#x27;s an alternative&#x2F;complementary approach to embeddings&#x2F;LLMs for working with text data. In this case, the hierarchy broke submissions down into paragraphs added a layer to pool them into submissions, and added one more layer to pool them by year (on the topic branch).<p>Our word branch is a bit more complicated, but we have some extended documentation on our website if you are interested in digging a bit deeper. Always happy to chat more about the technical details of our topic models if you have any questions!<p>Overview of Our Technology: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;blog.sturdystatistics.com&#x2F;posts&#x2F;technology&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;blog.sturdystatistics.com&#x2F;posts&#x2F;technology&#x2F;</a><p>Technical Docs: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;docs.sturdystatistics.com" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;docs.sturdystatistics.com</a>
  • zb32 hours ago
    So the analysis from the last image is not available - not even for money, right?
    • kianN2 hours ago
      We are going to publish that publicly next time we have a free day, though its publication will likely render the analysis redundant :)
      • WaitWaitWha2 hours ago
        You already posted the answer. Just a bit of review of that picture and the answer is right there. ;)
        • kianN1 hour ago
          Haha that’s true, but the timezone is left as an exercise for the reader for now
  • verdverm7 hours ago
    Very nice analysis<p>Do you have any insights into the Clawd spam ravaging &#x2F;new and &#x2F;show?<p>I&#x27;m in there, being part of a (down) &quot;voting ring&quot; (not coordinated)
    • kianN7 hours ago
      Thank you! I currently don’t have much insight to this current trend. At the time of this analysis I hadn’t even heard of Clawd but that would definitely be worth my revisiting.<p>I was planning on doing this yearly but the Clawd excitement is definitely worth diving into.