Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

(economist.com)

137 points by harambae5 hours ago

18 comments

cal_dent4 hours ago
I think there's something quite interesting (well to me anyway) where if you go by the internet, there is this bloodbath (slight exaggeration perhaps but feels like that) in jobs out in the US, UK, Aus and major European countries (the volume of anecdotes & complaints would suggest a significant downturn in employment) but out in the official data, and less so but still true in the real world, things are still bobbing along. Not great guns but still ok. The interesting thing is how much is internet chatter a leading signal for this thing now than in previous cycles?Outside of the unique circumstances of covid, we've never had, to my knowledge, a notable downturn when social media, and all the chatter it generates, has been so prominent or mass engaged. How much of it is just internet noise vs canary in the coal mine stuff. Who knows? But curious to find out in coming months/year
- markus_zhang3 hours ago
 Reality is not particularly rosy for new graduates AFAIK. If I lose my job, I wouldn't be super surprised that I might never get a similar job for the rest of my life -- it is not that I do not have the skills, but 1) the amount of time for a laid off SDE to get a new job could reach to years, not months, so I need to do something else to earn $$$, and 2) why are companies going to hire me, who have gap years and are older, but not some fresh graduates who can work 80 hours per week and only demand half of the salary?And yes I believe this time it's going to be different. I believe that if the economy dumps again, we are really going to see more hot wars. It is different from 2001, and different from 2008. We have kicked the can for almost 20 years and I kudos the policy makers who managed to achieve this.
 - bluGill3 hours ago
 I have heard that story every few years for the last 30. I know when it is your personal situation things are hard, but your story is nothing new and people recover. Some get back into whatever their degree was, others start a new career and never do. this will happen again.
 - johnnyanmac2 hours ago
 >and people recover.So you read nothing about how graduates during 2008 pretty much had forever stunted careers?They aren't put on the streets, but it's clear some very long term damage is being done to people simply as a matter of bad luck.
 - thewebguyd1 hour ago
 > So you read nothing about how graduates during 2008 pretty much had forever stunted careers?Myself included. Graduated in '08, had to work various minimum wage jobs in retail for several years because no one was hiring. I'm just now at a point in my career, nearing 40, where I should have been at 28.Degree doesn't matter much when your only work experience is 5 years of working at Starbucks, and you barely have personal projects because you're too busy working 2 jobs to just to survive.Those of us who suffered through that time period barely recovered, and many didn't recover at all. It shaped an entire generation.
 pyuser5832 minutes ago
 sorry your math seems strange. You graduated from college in ‘08 - 17 years ago. You’re nearing 40. So let’s say you graduated at 23 … you’ve only had a college level job for five years?The economy has been moving upward since 2013 - 12 years ago. What were you doing from 2013 to 2020?I ask because I also graduated around ‘08. I’ve been a software developer since 2016. I’m currently a senior dev with almost a decade of experience.There were really crappy years to start with, but I feel I’ve made up for it substantially.My own parents graduated in the late 70s during a terrible economic recession.It seems weathering economic recessions have been a tradition for several generations.I still remember articles almost identical to the ones I see now; “this generation is screwed and there is no possible salvation.”It’s getting old.
 smileson247 minutes ago
 I'm a little older but I have found it strange how well economic crisis has been almost wiped from our collective memoriesit was a horrible period and I have many friends who are in the same boat especially those not in software
 SilverElfin7 minutes ago
 I think it is wiped from memories because it very specifically affected one or two years of college graduates (that had the experience the parent comment mentioned). Not an entire generation. The data shows millennials as a whole are better off than boomers were at their age.
 - adamredwoods1 hour ago
 Here's the study on that:<a href="https://academic.oup.com/psychsocgerontology/article/77/4/780/6329630" rel="nofollow">https://academic.oup.com/psychsocgerontology/article/77/4/78...</a>>> Across a generation’s life course, early-life advantages are magnified through disparate occupational and social trajectories that lead to wide late-life disparities in financial and health resources, in a process first termed by Crystal and Shea as one of “cumulative advantage and disadvantage” (CAD; Crystal, 1982, 1986, 2020; Crystal et al., 1992, 2017; Crystal & Shea, 1990b; Dannefer, 1987, 1988). Dannefer (1987) described the trend of increasing inequality over the life course as the “Matthew effect,” applying a biblical dictum first used by Merton (1968), stating that “to he who has much, more is given, and to he who has little, even that is taken.” This ongoing process has also been described as an “obdurate tendency” for increasing inequality over the life course (Dannefer, 2020).
 - Saigonautica23 minutes ago
 I mean, it caused me to emigrate to a growth economy. If I stayed in the West, I don't think I would have been OK.
 - reactordev3 hours ago
 I was going to say this. Money comes, money goes, that’s life. Ideally you’re smart enough to save and invest to weather these storms but for those (like myself) that are still working hard post 40, we know it’s all part of the game.I tell the younger generation the same thing. Save, invest, max 401k, before you go off and party. Your older self will thank you.
 - johnnyanmac2 hours ago
 You telling someone with 50k in debt, turning in 1000's or job apps struggling to find a job they studied 4+ years for and not being able to even pay rent to "just save"... is exactly how we got into this situation to begin with.
 ethin1 hour ago
 I'm literally one of these people. My only work experience is a GSoC internship in 2021. I have yet to get hired and I've been looking for 4 years, graduated in 2022 right before ChatGPT came out. I've had no choice but to become a generalist as a consequence, and over the last year or two my interviews have dropped to zero and absolutely none of the advice I've gotten from anybody has helped. Just my personal experience.
 - karlshea16 minutes ago
 I'm gonna have to hold your hand when I tell you this: when you tell the younger generation to "save" or "invest" they are going to walk away from that conversation knowing they were just speaking with one of the most mind-numbingly naive Olds they're going to encounter in probably the next several months.Please, if you ever want any respect from anyone younger than you ever again in your entire life, do not say those words again.
 - goodolddays90902 hours ago
 I'm a bit over 40, not liking parts of my FAANG job, worried I'll lose it, and worried no where in the industry is as fun as 12 years ago, but being on the low end of Fat FIRE makes it a lot easier.
 aaronblohowiak45 minutes ago
 FI is more valuable than RE. After three years or so I got the itch again and decided to self fund my own thing. Also looking back on around 10 years ago more fondly..
 - markus_zhang3 hours ago
 I pray you are right and I'm wrong. But I do have reasons to believe that this time is a bit different.
 - sheepscreek3 hours ago
 > but not some fresh graduates who can work 80 hours per week and only demand half of the salaryCause garbage in, gets garbage out. With AI models being all the more rage in the coming years, unexperienced hires will prove many times more costly. (10x garbage with agents).So companies are going to concentrate their worker base even more with experienced folks. They need fewer of them. Yes. But quality matters more than ever.I really feel bad for the new graduates. For no fault of their own, the bar went up so high. Unless they’re a child prodigy doing some coding projects on the side since the age of 10 - no one will hire them. So how will they ever gain the experience they need?Maybe, just maybe, we’ll see a reinvention of coding schools - that will now focus on fundamental and industry knowledge - imparted by other veterans, instead of teaching applied skills.
 - agentultra2 hours ago
 We haven’t passed the stage where we convince policy makers to stop dumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.We’re not going to convince anyone to keep hiring software developers.I think we ought to be keeping people trained and employed but it seems we’re not on the winning side here.
 - dtech1 hour ago
 > I think we ought to be keeping people trained and employedI never understood this sentiment. We don't have a massive manual weaving industry anymore, 95%+ of people used to be farmers in 1900. Tech comes and replaces humans, and the transition can be extremely painful especially for the people replaced, but ultimately it's better than keeping people artificially employed in obsolete jobs.(I don't think SWE will be obsolete, but even in this case I'd rather switch careers)
 oblio9 minutes ago
 Most deindustrialized regions in the West haven't recovered to full prosperity and are quite depressing to live in, sometimes even 30-40 years later: US Rust Belt, Wallonia in Belgium, the French North East, etc.At a large enough scale, most people don't really move on, their lives are wrecked and they just suffer through them.
 - johnnyanmac2 hours ago
 We gotta gather ourselves and remind companies why they once paid handsomely to not let potential disruptiors run rampant on the market. Long term new teams will form once productivity is valued again and not this giant incestuous GDP-maxmizing scheme.
 oblio7 minutes ago
 On the long term, we're all dead.I doubt things will recover to 2018 levels. Too many new software devs coming out each year, too much AI, too little big company growth once everyone already has an internet computer in their hands. The Wild West is over and now the digital economy has entered the boring phase.
 - kortilla2 hours ago
 The comparison to greenhouse gases doesn’t make sense. Corps pay a lot for developers right now because they get more value out of them than they cost. As long as that remains true, devs will be fine.
 - markus_zhang3 hours ago
 I agree with you, but I forgot to mention that in the original reply I meant to say that "After the economy turns around, there is no point to hire me, an older guy with maybe a couple of gap years, who worked as a Uber driver for the last two years and can't leetcode".But yeah, new graduates is going to suffer anyway.And I'm scared of the collapse of the existing world order. Maybe we won't see a turn around for many years if it does collapse -- and we are already seeing many cracks on it.
 - echelon2 hours ago
 New folks will never be hired. RIP to the CS degree.Old staff will be exited. Especially senior and mid level management.If you lose your job, you won't get the same comp again. The days of $500K TC are long behind us.It's the era of downsizing and outsourcing while blaming AI.None of this has anything to do with AI. That's just a scapegoat.Google and Amazon are culling entire US teams and rebuilding them in Asia where the cost of labor is significantly lower.The best thing ICs can do is fight for big tech monopolies to be broken up. (Call your reps leading up to the midterms.) If several members of the Mag 7 are broken up into smaller companies, that'll inject tons of energy back into the ecosystem and enable the wheels of competition and employment.Bonus - if big conglomerates are fighting to pick up the pieces of a Ma Bell style dismantlement, they won't have time to manage teams 12 hours away.Nothing against our colleagues in Asia. They're brilliant. But American companies built with American labor shouldn't shut us out in the cold while they reach record profits and continue to hollow out entirely new industries simply by outstretching their arms.
 QuiEgo2 hours ago
 I’ve been told for 20 years that in 5 years my job is going to be offshored. If they could have they would have long ago.My theory: We had a crazy bubble of hiring during zero rate interest. We are living through a nasty correction. AI is moving the needle too, but it’s mostly being used as a scapegoat to save face and explain away cleaning up failed ZRIP yolo plans that didn’t pan out.We’ve also haven’t had a serious recession since 2009. It feels like it’s only a matter of time :(
 jneen34 minutes ago
 I've had my job offshored in the past, in case a personal anecdote is relevant here.
 QuiEgo21 minutes ago
 Sorry that happened to you :(
 echelon2 hours ago
 > I’ve been told for 20 years that in 5 years my job is going to be offshored. If they could have they would have long ago."This time it's different."20 years ago China and India had a nascent tech industry. Now they're booming.Talented folks all over the world - Asia, Latin America, and elsewhere - are working on hard problems.> We had a crazy bubble of hiring during zero rate interest.We did. This has had a tremendous impact, no doubt. But by the same coin, ZIRP has had half a decade to unwind at this point. There's other stuff going on. Tariffs, continued inflation, etc.We're not the only industry offshoring. Hollywood has moved a lionshare of production overseas in the last 4 years. Graphics design and marketing... It's being shipped out at volume.
 QuiEgo1 hour ago
 My personal experience, YMMV:I was told that once video conferencing got good and internet and infrastructure became better in other places, "this time it will be different."I was told once universities in other countries started pumping out a pool of great candidates, expats who worked for FAANGs in the US would go home to found their own companies using that pool, and those companies would take over the world. "this time it's different."I was told during covid once everyone was remote, why would people not just hire the cheapest remote workers going forward? "This time it's different."Don't get me wrong, I absolutely have seen more and more offshoring over time, but there's a huge inertia behind the US tech industry that's hard to change. The VC / startup ecosystem and all of it's resources have huge Bay Area inertia - it mostly hasn't even spread to the rest of the US, let alone the rest of the world, despite the cost of living and constrained talent pool in the Bay Area. There's something about getting a bunch of people with the same mindset in one spot and having them know each other, socialize with each other, make friends and networks with each other that still matters. Founders tend to build off the people and connections they know and are connected with personally.I'm hoping it will take long enough to change for me to finish my career. We'll see. This time really may be different :).EDIT: p.s. Agree totally it's way to complex to tell what's actually happening. The _impact_ of the end of ZRIP, the rise of AI, major tax changes on R&D amortization, and US tariffs pretty much landed at the same time, so who knows?
 tibbar2 hours ago
 This is not the picture I'm seeing on the ground. AI is eliminating certain classes of junior software positions. (Roughly: jobs where explaining a task to junior engineer is more work than asking Cursor/Claude Code/Codex to do it.) Junior engineers can fight back against this bya) getting really good at clarifying requirementsb) learning quickly, so their work quality is eventually higher than Cursor can work out in one shot.This is also a pressure against hiring teams overseas: when the bottleneck is communication + taste, not raw implementation cycles, you'd rather have a small local team. And it's a pressure for high TC, because individuals now have much more leverage, although they need to master more skills to take advantage.
 0515 minutes ago
 > learning quickly, so their work quality is eventually higher than Cursor can work out in one shot.This sounds almost word for word like The Onion’s classic: Secretary Of Labor Assures Nation There Still Plenty Of Jobs For Americans Willing To Outwork Robots[0] <a href="https://theonion.com/secretary-of-labor-assures-nation-there-still-plenty-of-1819578194/" rel="nofollow">https://theonion.com/secretary-of-labor-assures-nation-there...</a>
 johnnyanmac2 hours ago
 >Junior engineers can fight back against this byMany juniors can't even meet with a human interviewer. There's no point maximizing for interviews that never come. That's the issue.>This is also a pressure against hiring teams overseas:This seems to agree with the issue. a team of 100 becomes a team of 5 locals and 95 outsourced work. Maybe those 5 managers are better off, but we're still reducing the local workforce by 95%.And I doubt the conditions of the remaining 5 are better than pre-outsourcing. You can't out-compensate burnout and QoL. Gen Z in particular seems to really be pushing against this mentality, so this strategy is limited in time even if it's working on Gen X/Millenials.
 kaashif1 hour ago
 Surely people who can't get a job aren't "junior engineers" - they're just graduates.Junior engineers, i.e. people who have already been hired, can indeed fight back by getting really good at their jobs.But you're right, it doesn't help you get hired if you can't even get an interview.
 conductr2 hours ago
 > when the bottleneck is communication + tasteThat was the bottleneck in the industry when it was in growth phase, it's a mature sector now and it's all about efficiency and profit now. Speed to market and product iteration speed isn't the most important thing anymore, there's not a lot of innovation taking place. Outside the actual novel AI specific companies out there, of course, there are a few other spots of growth and exceptional companies but largely the kings have been crowned.
 echelon2 hours ago
 Show of hands for anyone seeing AI replacing juniors (and I assume also backfilling employees).I'm genuinely curious.I've heard this argued the other way too. Seen it firsthand.Fwiw, we've had good engineers switch to vibe coding and it's ruined their output.From really solid systems to unmaintainable flocks of seagulls - nested if statements ten levels deep with no thought or care. From good engineers that are just dialing it in now.We've had good engineers use vibe coding to save to time to work on their side hustles. Then go on to try to raise money for AI products.
 raw_anon_11111 hour ago
 I lead cloud consulting projects as a staff consultant specializing in application development.I use to need myself to lead the project, customer management, design work and some development. I would add usually another developer to do some of the grunt work coding and usually a cloud architect to take care of infrastructure as code, security, etc.Not that I wasn’t knowledgeable enough to do it all myself, I just didn’t have time. GenAI can definitely do CloudFormation, Terraform or the AWS CDK (ie using a high level language like Typescript instead of Yaml) and can do the code where I really don’t need two other resources or deal with the detailed requirements and coordination.Before the pearl clutching starts about my not knowing how to code without AI. I’ve been coding consistently since 1986 when I was a hobbyist assembly language coder.> We've had good engineers use vibe coding to save to time to work on their side hustles. Then go on to try to raise money for AI products.It seems to be working…<a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Uy2aWoeRZopMIaXXxY2EZqQ-p1XkybYp21llKCfLsME/edit?usp=drivesdk" rel="nofollow">https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Uy2aWoeRZopMIaXXxY2E...</a>
 johnnyanmac2 hours ago
 Yeah pretty much. Engineers are going to be at a crossroad where they either turn to the government to finally build in some proper labor laws and other obvious controls (how about re-banning stock buybacks?) or go out to the Wild West and hope they idea can sustain their livelihood.Given the vibes of the community here: I guess I'll look for a Mad Max mask (I'll ofc keep performing my civic duties, though).
 ac291 hour ago
 > turn to the government to finally build in some proper labor laws and other obvious controls (how about re-banning stock buybacks?)What would banning stock buybacks accomplish? Companies can still return capital to shareholders in the form of dividends.
 johnnyanmac1 hour ago
 Dividends don't grow the stock as quickly. They can and will do that, but the goal is to change the incentive structure back to long term growth and not "stock buyback and dip from company in a year".
 echelon1 hour ago
 Dividends are immediately taxable.Stock buybacks are designed to let the shareholder see the same upside, but decide when to take the taxable event. Long term gains are also preferable to non-qualified dividends.
 echelon2 hours ago
 A big tech breakup needn't be anti-capitalist. In fact, it might be the most pro-capitalist move.If you're an entrepreneur or VC, you want big tech broken up because they can put serious price pressure on your exit.Trillion dollar companies can easily spin up a team to copy you, with no incentive to stay alive. They can threaten you with all kinds of leverage - access to customers, patents, legislators. They can give you an ultimatum to sell for cheap, go to your competitor, etc.Their scale and reach is additional unexpected gravity on your delta V.Capitalism is supposed to be hard. It isn't supposed to support invasive species that can graze anywhere they please and kill ecosystems of diversity and innovation. These mega conglomerates can just throw themselves into markets using unrelated business unit profit and suffocate real companies.Breaking up Google and Amazon would be good for everyone, perhaps even shareholders and ICs at those companies themselves if value is unlocked. Let alone all of the other companies and entrepreneurs in the market.
 intended1 hour ago
 > Nothing against our colleagues in Asia. They're brilliant. But American companies built with American labor shouldn't shut us out in the cold while they reach record profits and continue to hollow out entirely new industries simply by outstretching their arms.What makes you think people in Asia wouldn’t benefit from more competition in the market as well?That said - I feel that advertisement based markets will always consolidate. There is too much of a benefit to having a single network which has the largest reach in terms of audience to show ads. This will always create incentives to consolidate over time.Then again, why make the perfect the enemy of the good. Getting to more competition is a good step.
 - travisgriggs2 hours ago
 Or, more dystopian take... it won't matter. If software reliability continues to degrade in a normalized fashion, it won't matter. First mover advantages and networking effects will make it impossible for an outfit trafficking increased quality to ever get enough breaths to even compete.
 - raw_anon_11112 hours ago
 I saw this coming way before AI became a thing around 2016 when I was 42. Software development was becoming a commodity where there were plenty of “good enough” developers where no matter what, it was going to be saturated.If someone is trying to sell themselves as an undifferentiated developer in 2025 or later, it’s going to be an uphill battle unless you can lean on your network.At 51, if my only differentiator is I can code, I’ve done something horribly wrong in my life.Anecdotally, I found software development adjacent roles quickly when I was looking both last year and the year before.
 - kortilla2 hours ago
 Software developer salaries went up significantly after 2016 and it was a super hot market for developers in 2020. So whatever you saw wasn’t a good indicator.
 - raw_anon_11111 hour ago
 It was very much bimodal. If you were working in BigTech or adjacent, that was definitely true. If you were working in enterprise dev like most of the 2.5 million+ developers working in a tier 2 city outside of the west coast in the US, comp was definitely stagnating.In 2016, I knew I had to do something when my (step)son graduated in 2020 and my wife was willing to move anywhere the money took us.It just so happened that a job fell into my lap at AWS working (full time) in the consulting department. I am no longer there. I now work at a third party consulting firm as a staff consultant specializing in app dev.
 - godelski1 hour ago
 It's easier to lower standards than to raise them.There's always a race to the bottom. I don't think it's a big leap to suggest that what's considered the "minimum viable product" has decreased over the years. It's also no secret that software is getting worse.As to salaries, I think you forgot how things worked before. The reason companies like Google introduced free food and all the incentives was because increasing salaries was not a better way to attract better talent, since salaries were already high. So either now something has changed where better talent cares more about money or we're attracting talent that cares more about money. As in either the same people changed or we're attracting a different type of person. Personally, regardless of age, regardless of field, I've seen a strong correlation with the best people not caring as much about money. Once the salary is good then they care more about how interesting the work is or how they can reduce stress in their life. Money matters, but it has decreasing utility as it grows.
 - fooker47 minutes ago
 Yeah someone joining a good company as a senior engineer in 2015 would retire with about 15M in assets now assuming smart investments (say... half on big tech stocks, half in market indices)Someone joining now on the other hand, might have to resort to physical work at some point in the next ten years of things go south.
 raw_anon_111138 minutes ago
 This is very much tech bubble thinking.Most developers in the US don’t work for tech companies and will never make ovdd $200K inflation adjusted. Developer salary is very much bimodal<a href="https://newsletter.pragmaticengineer.com/p/trimodal" rel="nofollow">https://newsletter.pragmaticengineer.com/p/trimodal</a>If you are working for boring old enterprise companies like banks, airlines, insurance companies or even most YC funded companies, “senior” developers will top out at around $160K-$170K inflation adjusted in tier 2 cities.I spent my pure developer career [1] in Atlanta GA. Well known companies based there like Home Depot, Delta, Coke, and GE Transportation are paying their top developers around what entry level developers getting in BigTech.But choose your non west coast city and you will see the same.
 fooker14 minutes ago
 Okay, assuming you could invest 100k out of your 170k per year into companies you know were doing well on tech from 2015, how much would you have ?(say: AMD, Tesla, Google, Amazon, Facebook)The answer is about 10M, which is not that far from what I estimated, even without including Nvidia. Now add in house price appreciation.There are plenty of people who have managed to do this, from fairly normal tech jobs.
 - cindyllm2 hours ago
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 - gruez2 hours ago
 >Reality is not particularly rosy for new graduates AFAIKI looked at the statistics[1], and while you could argue new graduates have seen worse (recent grad unemployment is actually lower than much of the 2010s), you can also see that in contrast to previous periods where new grad unemployment is lower than all worker unemployment, this time around new grad unemployment is actually slightly higher. However if you look at the chart this wasn't a post pandemic phenomena. The gap has been closing since the back half of the 2010s, and doesn't show much of a spike after the release of chatgpt, so "AI" isn't a good explanation either.[1] <a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/college-labor-market" rel="nofollow">https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/college-labor-market</a>
 - godelski1 hour ago
 Break it down by degree. You're losing some important information in the aggregate. Going to degree you see that Computer Science has the 7th highest unemployment rate: anthropology, physics, computer engineering, commercial art & graphical design, fine art, sociology, computer science, chemistry, information systems & management.Of course you also need to look at underemployment too. Which CS is on the lower end of that. So you have to consider things like that even though there's a higher unemployment rate than performing arts (2x) there is far lower underemployment because people expect to get jobs in their field for CS.There's more you need to look at too. It's not so easy and you shouldn't just use such a high level approximation if you want to make sense of the data.Hiring lab has some more interesting information to like the number of postings. CS is way down from "prepandemic" levels, but unfortunately only goes to 2020 (hence the quotes).<a href="https://data.indeed.com/#/" rel="nofollow">https://data.indeed.com/#/</a>
 - johnnyanmac2 hours ago
 There's a recent podcast that talked about this if you have 15 minutes to watch a segment: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bYRCYdxVMaM" rel="nofollow">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bYRCYdxVMaM</a>TL;DR Gen Z is "slightly better off" in pure financial status compared to older generations , even with inflation adjusted. But the distribution on what got cheaper overtime and what got more expensive is causing the true strain among Gen Z.It also helps to explain a bit of a generation clash when you see how older generations can chastise the younger ones over what were "luxuriies" when they were that age. The entire market is flipped.
 - hombre_fatal2 hours ago
 Your competition isn’t new grads. It’s experienced engineers in other countries who will work for half your wage in your own city on an H1B or similar.
 - thewebguyd1 hour ago
 You're half correct. H1Bs in your own city aren't working half your wage.However, engineers in developing countries will work half your wage, remote from their home, where that's a great salary where they live. When the average annual salary in India is the equivalent of $4,200 USD/year, there are a lot of talented engineers there that if they don't win the H1B lottery, will end up working for big tech remote.
 - SilverElfin1 hour ago
 H1Bs don’t work for “half your wage”. This is a myth. H1Bs have a higher average salary.
 - skybrian2 hours ago
 “The rest of my life” is a very long horizon for making predictions. I don’t think I could predict much about politics or the economy two years out.
- epistasis3 hours ago
 At least in the US we haven't had official data for quite some time. The BLS lost its chief because of "bad numbers"The numbers we do have show significantly worse jobs numbers compared to prior years.We might get data again, maybe not, but the US government has had an internal revolution, and it's doubtful we will have data as good as in the past, and it's quite likely that any bad news will be deeply buried.
 - reactordev3 hours ago
 BTC would agree with you. It’s nose diving.
 - epistasis2 hours ago
 Since its a Sunday night during a holiday weekend without any big breaking news, I would suspect that's probably just a bunch of people that had automated sales at $90k, or something similar.
 - reactordev2 hours ago
 Love that HODL optimism. Looking at the longer charts there seems to be support around $80k so maybe. This could just be holiday shopping. The timing of economics with this though has me worried the support will falter causing a sell off and Monday’s bell will be a bloodbath.
 epistasis2 hours ago
 I have zero optimism for BTC, hold zero, and can't imagine a circumstance where I'd ever buy some. (Though perhaps a few more years of current US policy and USD will be so terrible that BTC starts to be more attractive...)I see that Tokyo stock markets are way down today, that's probably what's driving lower BTC?
 fragmede1 hour ago
 For a look at the shopping economics, this year's bfcm at stripe is pretty fun! <a href="http://bfcm.stripe.com" rel="nofollow">http://bfcm.stripe.com</a> people are selling off Bitcoin to have money to buy stuff, and that link is an inside baseball look at how much stuff is being bought.
 - dboreham2 hours ago
 A common pattern is: people (I supposed I mean: investors) are somewhat worried that markets are over valued. They ponder, think, research, binge-watch Prof G videos... Then they travel to have Thanksgiving dinner with a bunch of in-laws. Market gets discussed over cigars. If they get a confirmation signal from the brother in law attorney or sister in law dentist that they are worried too...then after mulling it over on the flight back to Denver...the market dumps on Monday.
- reeredfdfdf16 minutes ago
 I live in Finland, with over 10% unemployment according to official statistics (second highest in EU, just after Spain). From what I can tell, things really suck especially for fresh grads. There's fierce competition for jobs like cashier at supermarket, hundreds of applications for one position is normal. Lots of fresh grads with bachelor's or master's degree compete for those jobs too, since they can't find anything better. Also, of the few open positions, many are the kind of "rental work" that offer only limited hours a week, at unpredictable times.So, this is what an objectively bad job market looks like in Europe.
- sheepscreek3 hours ago
 I believe you’re in the minority here. Perhaps your experience is different because of your skill set or the market you’re in. Anyone that I know personally who got laid off (in tech) took at least 6 months to find a job. I don’t know about anyone else but that to me is pretty brutal. More so as the people getting laid off are mid career, some with kids.Edit: Add to the above that companies like Walmart are seeing an uptick in high wage earners becoming their customers, and McDonalds seeing a shrinking population of low-wage customers.It’s easy to infer the rest from there. People who used to do well are cutting expenses and those who were already struggling are..I seriously don’t know what they’re doing. Where do you eat when you downgrade from McDonalds..Wendy’s? It’s a sad state of affairs.Source: <a href="https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2025-11-16/mcdonalds-is-losing-its-low-income-customers" rel="nofollow">https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2025-11-16/mcdonalds-...</a>
 - kragen1 hour ago
 You ask, "Where do you eat when you downgrade from McDonalds..Wendy’s? It’s a sad state of affairs." On the off chance that this isn't a joke, you need to know that eating out is very expensive in the US, even at McDonald's. According to the obviously highly credible <a href="https://mcdonalds-menu-prices.us/" rel="nofollow">https://mcdonalds-menu-prices.us/</a> a Quarter Pounder With Cheese costs US$7.99 now. I think home-cooked rice and lentils costs about US$0.20. Other similarly low-cost foods include polenta, homemade bread, homemade mayonnaise, zucchini, spaghetti, sunflower-seed cheese, homemade peanut butter, onions, potatoes, etc. Those numbers aren't even the same order of magnitude.
 - __MatrixMan__2 hours ago
 > Where do you eat when you downgrade from McDonalds?You buy groceries. And if you must downgrade from there you eat the rich.
 - mbfg1 hour ago
 the advantage of fast-food over groceries, is that you don't have to worry about spoilage and waste. So the delta is probably less than you think. Now granted McD is an s-show, they are no longer the restaurant of the poor, You likely can get a better burger meal deal at a Chilis than a McD, as sad as that is.
 - ac291 hour ago
 Even if you waste half your groceries its still cheaper than eating out. And wasting that much is difficult to do, most staples will last weeks to years without risk of spoilage.There are some fresh fruits and vegetables that are exceptions because they dont take well to refrigeration or freezing but really not much.
 mbfg54 minutes ago
 also, there is the case of the mismatched quantities for shopping, ie, the old hot dogs come in 10 packs, and rolls in 8 backs, etc.
 - strken9 minutes ago
 This is just wrong. Beans and rice are more than an order of magnitude cheaper than McDonald's per calorie and they're non-perishable. Combine that with whatever fruit and veg is affordable fresh or frozen, a bit of cheap seasoning, and you're still coming out ahead.You obviously need access to cooking and storage facilities to eat like this, but the target audience of McDonald's is the time-poor, the resource-constrained, or the depressed and disabled, rather than just the money-poor.
 - cal_dent1 hour ago
 I believe the long-term average in the US and UK was somewhere around 20 - 25 weeks so that's still broadly in line. Not trying to dismiss anyone but there is a cacophony of voices about the difficulty in finding jobs but hard to ascertain if that is any different from normal or we just got used to a boom cycle (ex Covid) and that's causing the disconnect?
 - HDThoreaun2 hours ago
 McDonald’s is expensive. Much cheaper to cook yourself.
 - adamredwoods59 minutes ago
 Situational.IMO, I think it breaks even, but eating out saves a lot of time! Healthier cooking at home? Yes. I studied this for myself (N=1), and my cooking is about US$10/meal give or take (asparagus, chicken, rice, water to drink). If you cook for two or more people, then I think cooking at home comes out ahead financially.
- tencentshill3 hours ago
 I know 4 people who were laid off this year. 2 federal government (1 contractor) and 2 large corporate. Entirely anecdotal, but the data I see isn't good.
 - bn-l3 hours ago
 The commenter you’re replying to is from Australia and things are likely different here
- johnnyanmac2 hours ago
 >out in the official data, and less so but still true in the real world, things are still bobbing along.The Titanic had 3 days of warning and took 3 hours to sink. A large ship takes a long time to do anything, be it turn or drown.If you've been following the breadcrumbs in pretty much any industry (especially tech), you know the market isn't in a good shape. If you're looking outside expencting to see the world burning, you gotta wait another 3 hours (or hope someone steps in first).
- vannevar3 hours ago
 >...but out in the official data, and less so but still true in the real world, things are still bobbing along.I don't know that the official data shows things "still bobbing along." The graph of monthly employment numbers looks like it has a decidedly downward trend overall. September jobs were unexpectedly high, but we've had a lot of subsequent downward revisions and it may happen again for September.<a href="https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/11/20/jobs-report-employment-september-2025" rel="nofollow">https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/11/2...</a>
 - cal_dent1 hour ago
 looks like a return to post GFC pre-covid trend. That's sort of what I mean, we've obviously come from a boom-ish market and correcting. How much of it now is the shock that now isnt the same as the 2021-2023 market v this is the start of a real downturn. I don't know
- duxup2 hours ago
 I find that social media just trends more negative generally. People engage with the negative.
- vachina1 hour ago
 Jobless are probably a vocal minority.Nothing paints a picture of recession in reality right now.
- iwontberude46 minutes ago
 Actually having trouble finding candidates...
- csomar3 hours ago
 Tech is more affected than the rest which is over-represented in discussions. Also people who can’t find a job tend to be more vocal than the rest.
 - johnnyanmac2 hours ago
 Based on the numbers we had before the BLS clammed up, all sectors except healthcare is going down. But yes, tech is one of the bigger slumps. If your job isn't to help take care of the aging boomer population, you're not having a good time.I work in games and have the occasional slump. But this time is much different. all staffind agencies for temp work in my city pretty much said there's nothing out there. my local area is pretty much a bunch of fractional janitorial roles and that's it.
 - fragmede3 hours ago
 Are they perhaps more vocal because they have a lot of time on their hands?
 - t-writescode3 hours ago
 You mean spending all their time looking for a new job, applying for various benefits, doing side work as much as they can, at pay far lower than they're used to so it takes more hours of gig work to reach equilibrium?
 - shagie2 hours ago
 > ... at pay far lower than they're used to ...Is this saying something more about the relative expectation of compensation bands?New grads are unlikely to have a comparable benchmark.People who've worked in Big Tech and finding themselves applying to regular companies where the revenue per employee is in the $200k range are likely going to have difficulty adjusting to such.I work in the public sector and make very low six digits. Others I know have compensation that is 3x or 4x what I make while working in technology industries.If both I and the people I chat with were to find themselves suddenly out of a job, I suspect I'd find an acceptable job elsewhere more easily than they would because anything I did would be a pay raise while anything they took would be a pay cut. This in turn translates to that I would be the less risky candidate (that I wouldn't be looking for a new position that would pay more within the year)... and thus I believe not only would I be more likely to accept the job I would also be more likely to be extended the position.Browsing reddit there are a lot of people on cscareerquestions (and similar) who have the mindset of FAANG or bust as a new grad. That they wouldn't even consider working at a company like Little Cesar's or Home Depot despite those companies having open positions.---Furthermore, this gets into a lemon market situation ( <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Market_for_Lemons" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Market_for_Lemons</a> ). Where it becomes harder to distinguish a good candidate for a poor one and that can only be found out after someone is hired, the companies that have people are more afraid of hiring a lemon than so don't hire anyone. This further depresses the market for the highly skilled candidates. Additionally, people who are skilled are less likely to look for a new job because the market is depressed and they're not as likely to get a good position afterwards.
 johnnyanmac1 hour ago
 > Is this saying something more about the relative expectation of compensation bands?I just want to survive and I can do barely that. If you want a reference: I'm a single male who went from 160k salary to nothing in the last half of 2023. My necessary expenses were 3k a month (70% of that being rent).Since then I lived in 2024 off of 50/hr freelance @ 15 hours a week. or... 3000/month. You see the issue here. Savings got obliterated, credit built up. But I figured I'd pay it off quickly if I just got any job to supplement the freelance work. not a 160k job per se. I could have found some local 60k IT role and been just fine (if a bit overworked with two different jobs).In 2025, after a year of circuses in the job market I settled on a 20/hr 20 hour role to supplement the freelance work. So things are "stable" now... as long as I don't get sick, or the car doesn't break down, or a variety of other life factors (spoilers: I did in fact get sick. Which lead to me finding the 2nd part time work).Like I said, I just want to survive. As is, I'm working for a third or so of my old salary with zero benefits and much more stress.
 shagie52 minutes ago
 I understand how that goes. In 2009 I lost my job making $85k (it would now be $130k in 2025 dollars)... and I was unemployed for a little under a year. I got a job where I made $25 an hour (40h a week with time and a half overtime) as a software developer (in a city where the median per capita income was $36k/year - and yes, I verified that with the federal reserve stats - <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/categories/3008" rel="nofollow">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/categories/3008</a> ). In 2015, with no meaningful raises and a bit of burnout I got a job in the public sector for $80k and have since been promoted and am making a little bit over $100k (different city, median per capita income is $75k/year).Salary-wise, I'm making less than I did when I lived in California in '09 (and that's salary - stocks were a nice bit more and public sector doesn't exactly have an ESPP).It may be necessary to move to get a job that pays $80k a year with 100% in the office expectations. Yes, it sucks. It's hard. Finding a job in '09 was not fun and I expect that similar conditions are to be found today. However, there are jobs out there when one considers what would be D tier companies and presents themself as someone isn't going to leave in a year for a higher salary somewhere else (before the implicit ROI of onboarding has been paid off). With the prevalence of job hopping and the "this resume does not match the applicant" issues, companies have become very risk adverse.
 t-writescode23 minutes ago
 This is the comment chain to which I was responding:csomar: Also people who can’t find a job tend to be more vocal than the rest.fragmede: Are they perhaps more vocal because they have *a lot of time on their hands?* (emphasis mine)me: You mean spending all their time looking for a new job, applying for various benefits, doing side work as much as they can, at pay far lower than they're used to so it takes more hours of gig work to reach equilibrium?--So, what I was responding to was the implication that unemployed or under-employed means that you've got a whole lot of free time, which can absolutely, positively be the opposite of true.If one had a job that previously made end's meet and now all they've got is gig work, they're probably filling ALL of their time just to survive, and are probably still coming up short. That's what I meant.
rhinoceraptor4 hours ago
From my experience, it's grim at the moment for software developer jobs. I got laid off in August and it's been rough. I'm in my early 30s so I can't compare it to 2008, but I've been laid off before and I've never seen it this bad.
- jdiff4 hours ago
 It's grim everywhere, for everything, all at once. I haven't been able to find work as a graphic designer, motion designer, web designer, web developer, software developer, and a large variety of retail jobs. Been on the job hunt since May, all I've been able to find is a part time position at The Home Depot.
 - aorloff4 hours ago
 I gotta tell you man, if you can find someone in charge at the backend of the Home Depot and let them hire you as a systems uptime troubleshooter you would easily make any salary you could name for them tenfold.I at at a Home Depot like 10 times a week and let me tell you, they have a major systems problem that is making their operations look like a joke
 - jdiff4 hours ago
 Funny you mention, I'm actually working on that, too. There's an internal career portal with a large variety of backend jobs. No interviews, follow-ups, or anything yet.
 - krackers4 hours ago
 >you would easily make any salary you could name for them tenfold.>I at at a Home Depot like 10 times a weekAnd yet you still go to Home Depot, so from their perspective it's not an existential issue. Probably the biggest thing companies have learned recently is that they don't need 99.99% uptime, people will accept degraded performance because "that's just how technology works".
 - aorloff2 hours ago
 I am at 10 different supply stores too, Lowes, Ashby, Truitt and I get a shit ton of stuff delivered.Everyone competes on price, so when I see everyone at Home Depot with their thumbs up their asses because the computers are down, I know that Ashby is eating their lunch on the margin. I'm sure Home Depot has enormous economies of scale that make up for it, but this is a current issue.
 - ux2664782 hours ago
 I don't think that's an appropriate conclusion to draw from a single point of data.
 - downrightmike1 hour ago
 ~~~Problems on purpose because they don't spend the time to fix it IE not going to hire anyone to fix shit because they still make billions this broken way~~~~
 - csomar3 hours ago
 Home Depot is a chain, so the backend is probably being handled from some R&D center somewhere. Your maneuvering area at the local home depot is probably pretty slim.
 - pjdemers2 hours ago
 Back in the early 2000's I did consulting work with Home Depot's backend developers. Their office is the "store support center", which is in the NW suburbs of Atlanta. I remember the team as being very good, but surprisingly small.
 - jasonjayr2 hours ago
 I've worked with a vendor listing products in their IDM (Item Data Management) System. IIRC, it's from <a href="https://www.stibosystems.com/" rel="nofollow">https://www.stibosystems.com/</a> . From a SMB vendor supplying one type of product it's frustrating to work with, with a lot of back and forth and workflows for verifying all manner of compliance with data quality, global regulations, and laws. From their internal perspective, it's probably the bee's knees, supporting a wide variety of taxonomies, considering the variety of products they sell & support, some rather dangerous and hazardous.From looking over the shoulders of the staff, some aspects of the system that I've seen as a supplier are directly visible to them too.
 - venturecruelty4 hours ago
 I wonder if it has anything to do with all of the 10-200% taxes we've levied on random things.
 - bequanna4 hours ago
 Offshoring (India + LATAM) with a side of h1b.Offshoring is by far the biggest culprit. Plenty of Jr/Mid roles hiring…but not US based.
 - jdlshore3 hours ago
 Offshoring has been a thing for decades. Seriously, Yourdon wrote a doom-and-gloom book about it in the 90s. It was called “Decline and Fall of the American Programmer,” published 1992.Then in 1996, he wrote “Rise and Resurrection of the American Programmer.”The software industry is extremely fad-driven. During the pandemic, the fad was to hire programmers. That created a lot of busywork and coordination jobs that didn’t contribute to the bottom line.Then Musk bought Twitter, laid off a bunch of folks, and things kept running. So the trend became “cut the fat.” In fairness, there actually was fat to cut.Now boards are in cost-cutting mode and fantasizing about AI, so the pendulum has swung back towards offshoring. But that cost-cutting focus is going to lead to stagnation and self-cannibalization. Somebody’s going to buck the trend, have a splashy success, and the herd will trample back in the other direction.
 johnnyanmac1 hour ago
 >But that cost-cutting focus is going to lead to stagnation and self-cannibalization. Somebody’s going to buck the trend, have a splashy success, and the herd will trample back in the other direction.Yes. But sadly, the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.And I feel there's going to be a huge storm to survive first. I imagine many may not even make it to the next shift.
 yadaeno2 hours ago
 It’s been a thing, but Covid and remote work took away any possible argument to no offshore everything ASAP.
 WalterBright2 hours ago
 As always, free markets are a chaotic system of creative destruction.
 lesuorac2 hours ago
 > Then Musk bought Twitter, laid off a bunch of folks, and things kept running.I'm not sure you can give credit to Musk here. Buying a company and cutting all R&D to "juice" profits isn't his invention. Twitter is really around still in spite of his efforts as opposed to because of them; other CEOs might be doing layoffs but they're also not going out doing sieg heils. As well as he really fired them for fealty reasons and not economic ones.It should be very telling that Grok came out of X.ai and not X. Ultimately, Musk did have to reverse some of the layoffs although with a bit of slight of hand so that Twitter could release any sort of new products.
 johnnyanmac1 hour ago
 It's not "his" thing, but he and a few early layoffs certainly made it trendy to do so. It's a small club, so seeing any "members" take any action is a sign they should follow suit.
 - csomar3 hours ago
 This started before the tariffs, so no direct link. Interest rates are more to blame.
 - SoftTalker4 hours ago
 Construction, trades, and basically physical-world stuff that AI cannot do are still hiring.
 - ux2664782 hours ago
 People will roll out the trades whenever employment is mentioned, but do you have tradies in your family? Do you have friends who are tradies? It's not easy to get in, it takes a long time to make journeyman, and work can have seriously spotty periods no matter who you are. Fact of the matter is, it's not really an alternative to anything except other types of bluecollar work.
 - honkycat18 minutes ago
 Yea! Start over my career, work way longer and harder hours, and make 1/3 of what I currently do! Sounds great!
 - AstroNutt3 hours ago
 Believe it or not, I've been in construction/remodeling for 35 years. We currently have 3 home remodels going on at the moment with more down the road. I've never experienced a slow down. Even during COVID.I'm not your typical HN member I don't think. I've been a computer nerd since I was 14 years old. I come here to stimulate my inner nerd.
 - wincy46 minutes ago
 Seconding this, I work as a SWE for a large construction company, while the IT department is small considering the large scope of the company as a whole, but we’ve been extremely busy. Construction is absolutely booming.
 - cyanmagenta3 hours ago
 > I've never experienced a slow downYou didn’t experience a slowdown at the height of the recession circa 2008?
 johnnyanmac1 hour ago
 being in construction for 35 years must mean they're already in the place that does the layoffs (instead of being laid off) by the time things get bad. You can easily say things don't slow down when you're divorced from the increasingly strained workers with less hours and benefits doing the construction.
 jerlam1 hour ago
 Homeowners are often rich and older and isolated from recessions.
 AstroNutt2 hours ago
 Nope. Things still break and need repaired no matter how the housing market is.
 - mgh952 hours ago
 How did you get into construction/remodeling, and how would someone best reach out to this community? I have been thinking about some construction related ideas (mostly around prefab automation and sales) and haven't the slightest idea how to reach these types of people.I am always curious about people who are strongly oriented towards one thing (computing) but somehow wind up in another area, such as construction.
 AstroNutt1 hour ago
 When I was a sophomore in high school, I worked part time for my neighbor who was a master electrician. I learned the basics with him. My parents divorced when I was 17 and we were forced to move away. My mother was an assistant manager at the apartments we lived at. I turned 18 and just so happened the complex she worked at was hiring someone to do make readies, (painting and repairs on vacant units before new move-ins).The management company my mother and I worked for sent me to various classes over the next several years (electrical, plumbing, HVAC and pool maintenance) and my supervisor was an old HVAC tech. I learned a ton from him. By the time I was 22 or so, I was promoted to maintenance director.I got bored with apartments and wanted more. I started doing side work and met a lady that owned lots of rental property. That opened doors and she introduced me to other investors. Eventually, I was able to leave the apartment industry and do my own thing. It just kind of blew up from there.As far as your construction related ideas, just put yourself out there. Meet people in the industry. Go to local industry related events. See if the city you live in has real estate investor clubs. DFW has a few and it's a great opportunity to meet people. This is also a great way to pick up work. Rent houses are always needing things repaired or replaced.I know Mueller metal buildings is always looking for sales people. They were even looking for an IT person not too long ago too. In the rural area of Texas I'm in, we finish out lots of them and seem to becoming more and more popular in recent years.
- johnnyanmac1 hour ago
 Same story here. I work in games so it's always been boom or bust. It's real bad now.- out of college it took 3 months to find work. It sucked, took over 100 apps, but I found a nice project.- after that project ended, 3 more months (but less stressful because I had more than one role I was interviewing with).- Then layoffs, another 3 months in 2022 where it was very competitive (I was in at least 4-5 interview pipelines before my first choice accepted my offer).- Then that studio quickly shuttered and I haven't found anything full time in 2.5 years. Freelancing kept me up until that wasn't enough, and then I found some non-tech part time work.working harder than ever with 2 jobs + more portfolio work to prepare for interviews despite having 9 years of experience now. This feels worse than the horror stories I'd hear when finding my first job.
 - throwaway-000144 minutes ago
 I can hire you if you decent and don’t expect high salary ports-spatial5c@icloud.com
- mollusc-engine4 hours ago
 I became a USPS mail carrier instead.Certainly less pay but I love being outside and walking.And no Jira, changing the color of that button, or steeping myself in Frank’s eldritch horror code.
 - protocolture3 hours ago
 >No JiraIf I was trying to attract intelligent applicants looking for work outside of software engineering, that would be in the headline.
 - JLO643 hours ago
 As someone who is currently delivering Amazon packages with their own vehicle (Amazon Flex), what’s the process like to become a mail carrier? The miles are starting to take a toll on my car, so delivering for USPS is tempting for me…
 - dehrmann2 hours ago
 > And no JiraNot officially, but once you remove the skills required for the tasks, it's not all that different.
 - rootusrootus3 hours ago
 My wife and I have a running joke about her giving up accounting and working for USPS instead. Some days I think she’s serious.
 - clumsysmurf3 hours ago
 I would definitely try this if the vehicles in Phoenix ran cleaner. The old ones have such bad smelling exhaust and you are always breathing it because of the semi-open cab.
 - fragmede3 hours ago
 electric vehicles are on the way! no clue when Phoenix will get them though
 - fHr2 hours ago
 Yeah but isn't the pay shit? like making 1/3th is not a win in my books.
- cute_boi3 hours ago
 It is all due to outsourcing. AI/H1B isn't taking that much job. Unless government put penalties on outsourcing market isn't going to improve.
 - itake3 hours ago
 yep. Trump added tariffs on physical goods, but there are no taxes on service imports.
 - ivankra2 hours ago
 Section 174's 15 years amortization rule on foreign R&D is kind of an indirect tax.
 - itake1 hour ago
 Overseas labor spend their salary overseas and pay no US taxes. still not the samething.
 - brightball3 hours ago
 There was talk of it. I believe the H.I.R.E. Act that’s been proposed is supposed to add a 25% fee to outsourcing overseas.
 - itake1 hour ago
 Probably a step in the right direction. But if you can hire someone abroad for 20% of the cost of an American worker, then instead of replacing one American with five workers, you replace them with four.
 - dilyevsky2 hours ago
 Wait until you hear what he did to h1b program!
 - itake1 hour ago
 The 100k fee on new applicants? drop in the ocean.The h1b people spend (most) of their salary in the USA and pay US income taxes. Whereas overseas labor spend their salary over seas and pay no US taxes.
pfisherman1 hour ago
My pet theory is that we are experiencing stagflation, but only people >70 years old have ever really experienced it before, so most people are just scratching their heads wondering how it’s possible that stocks keep going up (inflation) while jobs are disappearing (stagnation). I am most definitely not an economist, nor am I qualified to play one on tv.
- dragonwriter45 minutes ago
 > My pet theory is that we are experiencing stagflation, but only people >70 years old have ever really experienced it before, so most people are just scratching their heads wondering how it’s possible that stocks keep going up (inflation) while jobs are disappearing (stagnation).We do not seem to be technically experiencing stagflation,ir really either half of it, on a national scale, as we appear to still be in a weak aggregate economic expansion and inflation, while higher than the 2% target, is fairly mild at around a 3% annualized rate [0], and, in any case, stocks going up is not inflation (unqualified inflation, which is the inflation part of stagflation, in consumer price inflation, not asset value inflation.)OTOH, we are in a very weak economy especially outside of the leading AI firms, and there are quite likely both wide regions and wide sectors of the economy which, considered alone, would be in recession, and while inflation is fairly mild, it is high for the last couple decades and being in near-recession conditions. So, for a lot of people, the experience is a something like stagflation (and there are lots of signs that the economic slowdown will continue alongside rising inflation.)[0] though as economic statistics are only available after the fact, either of these could have changed, but the real defining period for “stagflation” in the US is the 1973-1975 recession, years which saw a minimum of 6.2% inflation (the term was actually coined in the UK for conditions which saw a massive drop in GDP growth rate, fron 5.7% annually to 2.1% in successive years, but not an actual recession, alongside 4.8% inflation.)
naveen992 hours ago
No, because the only thing keeping the fed from lowering interest rates and juicing real estate and everything else is a strong labor market.
- johnnyanmac1 hour ago
 You have it backwards. Layoffs these days increase stock value because everyone is hedging that bad job numbers will force the feds to lower interest rates. Something Powell has hesitated to do in order to keep inflation in check.It's a very screwed up incentive to be rewarded for breaking the system, but that's 2025 in a nutshell.
- ac2949 minutes ago
 The fed has cut rates 5 times in the past 14 months
- sethops11 hour ago
 And the fact that everybody knows real inflation is still high.
chasd005 hours ago
Ftfa (the part I could read) “ growth is buoyed by an exuberant stockmarket and artificial-intelligence investment, while ordinary Americans languish”Black Friday sales set records and it not even cyber Monday. If Americans are languishing then shouldn’t holiday spending be down?
- programmertote4 hours ago
 I postponed all of my CPG and miscellaneous purchases (think AA batteries, socks, winter pants, skin lotion, body wash, etc.) until Black Friday "sales". I also stocked up on stuff like Ramen. I did NOT buy anything special for myself (e.g., I really wanted Switch 2, but I think it's too overpriced and decided not to pull the trigger).I'd not be surprised if a good number of people did the same. PLUS, the prices rose by quite a bit between the start of the year and now. So we need to see if this increase is sales match up to inflation (which, unfortunately, would be more difficult to rely on knowing that that metric has become politicized.)
 - dudus4 hours ago
 Same here. My big purchase for Black Friday last year was an OLED TV.This year was prescription glasses.
 - benmw3333 hours ago
 bf related, I bought: 1) trail mix 2) licorice 3) books on diy house / carpentrynot bf related but happened this week: 1) cv axles for my car ~500 and will install myselfi am employed and just make it into 6 figures $110k, which apparently is poverty level now if you have a few dependents. i consider myself fortunate.
 - DaveZale4 hours ago
 fwiw the Tokyo noodle packs' price actually dropped, if instant noodles is one of your staples.
- master_crab4 hours ago
 Black Friday did not set records. Bloomberg stated that it was up 4.1%, but that was not inflation adjusted. So it was just slightly higher than flat.Not necessarily a bad thing…but not great either.<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-29/black-friday-sales-rise-underscoring-us-consumers-resilience" rel="nofollow">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-29/black-fri...</a>
 - chasd004 hours ago
 “Slightly higher than flat” is still a new record.
 - doctorpangloss2 hours ago
 Haha, Black Friday sets record by being the worst discounts ever.
 - jeffbee4 hours ago
 You also have to adjust such things for population, which was up about .6% in August vs. last August, the latest data we have.
 - 3eb7988a16634 hours ago
 Last report I saw said US population was set to drop this year - first time in 250 years. With our demographic boomer bubble, continually dropping fertility, and anti-immigration stance, the trend is likely to continue.
 - jeffbee3 hours ago
 With the growth we already had in 2025 you'd have to nuke LA to end the year with a decline.
 johnnyanmac1 hour ago
 <a href="https://www.pew.org/en/research-and-analysis/articles/2025/03/05/population-growth-in-most-states-outpaced-long-term-trends-in-2024" rel="nofollow">https://www.pew.org/en/research-and-analysis/articles/2025/0...</a>Most population growth was due to immigration for a while, and immigration (for obvious reasons in 2025) is way, way down.<a href="https://www.derekthompson.org/p/the-us-population-could-shrink-in" rel="nofollow">https://www.derekthompson.org/p/the-us-population-could-shri...</a>what's your report?>you'd have to nuke LALet's not give this administration ideas, please.
 jeffbee53 minutes ago
 Do you normally get your demographic statistics from Brookings and AEI? My reference is to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.<a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POPTHM" rel="nofollow">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POPTHM</a> its source being <a href="https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2025-09/pi0825.pdf" rel="nofollow">https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2025-09/pi0825.pdf</a>
 - tayo422 hours ago
 Doesn't black Friday kind of suck now and for the last few years? There's sales all of the time, and there's all those open secrets about black Friday skus now.
- nrhrjrjrjtntbt5 hours ago
 Black friday is a datapoint. But maybe people are deferring purchases to these sale periods. What proportion of goods were luxury vs. not.Also poor people can get into debt they are still poor. Maybe they can afford a nintendo switch but not afford to raise a family.
 - thinkingtoilet4 hours ago
 The only things I bought on Black Friday were things I would normally have bought but just waited a few weeks/months to get.
 - SoftTalker4 hours ago
 Same among people I know. My MIL needed to replace some kitchen appliances and waited for BF sales.
 - kshacker3 hours ago
 Deferring sales is one datapoint. But setting records is another datapoint and counter to deferring IMO.Edit there is talk below of inflation adjusted numbers being high but meh
- 3Mathematicians4 hours ago
 Consumers in the top 10% of the income distribution accounted for 49.2% of total spending, per Bloomberg. If anything, in my opinion, this strengthens the k-shaped economic growth stat that the article mentions.
 - master_crab4 hours ago
 Yup, only the rich are powering this economy now. That bodes poorly for the country’s stability long term.
 - refurb3 hours ago
 Top 10% is a household making more than $191k so a couple making $95k each.Rich indeed!
 - JumpCrisscross1 hour ago
 Generally speaking, the rich is anyone who makes slightly more than you.
 refurb21 minutes ago
 It's like the saying about alcoholics - "an alcoholic is anyone who drinks 1 more drink than you".
 - almosthere4 hours ago
 can also look at it as an opportunity to gather friends and start a small drywall company. Those are in demand, for example. The rich are building more buildings than ever. If you live in the bay area, you can very well see 300k / year if you keep yourself busy.
 - estearum3 hours ago
 Then if you're successful, you can sell it to a PE firm where it will further buoy the rich!Can't see how this positive feedback loop gets us to a bad place at all!
 - gruez2 hours ago
 >Consumers in the top 10% of the income distribution accounted for 49.2% of total spending, per Bloomberg.What was the historical trend? Otherwise you can't draw much from just "49.2%" alone, aside from a vague sense that stuff should be fairer.
 - johnnyanmac1 hour ago
 > What was the historical trend?No, it is not normal for 10% of the coountry to power half the spending. Just think about that statistic for a second. Spending includes groceries, services, and other continual needs. A few private jets can't outspend millions of people buying food.But here's your chart: <a href="https://preview.redd.it/2pcvmm0u3jpf1.png?width=798&auto=webp&s=d34c476500ba3ab02e5711167e67fe320dae84f6" rel="nofollow">https://preview.redd.it/2pcvmm0u3jpf1.png?width=798&auto=web...</a>
- seanmcdirmid5 hours ago
 Shouldn’t every year be a record considering population growth and inflation?
 - eru4 hours ago
 You could look at inflation adjusted per-capita sales, of course.
 - seanmcdirmid2 hours ago
 Ya, when I ask Gemini:While there isn't a definitive inflation-adjusted per-capita number for 2025, recent data indicates that overall sales growth was outpaced by inflation, meaning consumers likely bought fewer items. Total Black Friday spending was up, but the average number of items purchased declined. For instance, Salesforce reported total spending was up 3% but order volume was down 2%, with average selling prices climbing 7%....Per-capita sales: The increase in spending is largely driven by higher prices, meaning the actual volume of goods purchased per person likely decreased compared to the previous year, even with higher total spending, says The New York Times.
- tomrod5 hours ago
 K shaped economy with increasing expenditure means the wealthier increase their spending as a portion of the economy and at an absolute level. It is not interpreted as the polity doing well - if anything, it is cause for concern.
 - Ericson23145 hours ago
 The wealthy don't buy more crap on black Friday.Inequality is very visible in terms of what sort of consumption occurs. Gotta look at the qualitatives.
 - zerosizedweasle3 hours ago
 Wealthy people love feeling like they are getting a deal.
 - alfalfasprout5 hours ago
 Sure they do. And during the holiday season too.
 - Libidinalecon4 hours ago
 I don't know if it is just the wealthy either.The retired middle class boomers I know are completely outside the business cycle.While I don't think they have enough to really be considered wealthy, they have no mortgage payment, a social security check, a pension and most have a 401k.The business cycle will not change their spending one bit.
 - AnimalMuppet4 hours ago
 It may, a bit. If the 401k is in the stock market, and the stock market is down, their total visible money is down. That tends to decrease enthusiasm for spending.
 - bryanlarsen4 hours ago
 It may also affect it a lot. Retirees I know have a retirement plan that involves their retirement accounts being at a specific level at the end of each year. If their accounts are over that level because the stock market had a good year, they consider it funny money that they're allowed to spend.
 tadfisher3 hours ago
 That's not a plan, it's a suicide note with extra steps.
 addaon1 hour ago
 > That's not a plan, it's a suicide note with extra steps.Being an aging human is a suicide note. The extra steps are the entire point of retirement.
- anon3738395 hours ago
 The rise in Black Friday sales is misleading because the sales reflect inflation rather than increased consumer demand.
 - listenallyall4 hours ago
 I think it is more that a greater number of products were heavily marketed by a greater number of companies. My social feeds were flooded with single-product companies and online-only companies aggressively selling all kinds of gear and gadgets. Travel pillows (like 5 different brands), ski socks, luggage, exercise equipment, etc etc. Not gonna lie, I bought some stuff I likely would not have otherwise!
 - vandal8ind2 hours ago
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- johnnyanmac1 hour ago
 >Ftfa (the part I could read)You did in fact not rtfm?>Black Friday sales set records and it not even cyber Monday.<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/29/business/black-friday-us-econony-spending" rel="nofollow">https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/29/business/black-friday-us-econ...</a>I don't know where you're seeing "record numbers". 2024 wasn't a great year and you can argue spending was flat from that after inflation. I think the more relevant factor is "who" is spending the money in such a k-shaped economy. .
- AuthAuth5 hours ago
 the country is growing so it will commonly "set records". We need to look at it in the context of previous years. Before I went and checked the stats I expected to see instore shopping to be down since americans are poorer than previous years and online shopping to be up since demand is growing and online caters to a worldwide audience.Checking the stats online growth is up and on par with previous years creating that record breaking stat. Instore numbers arent out yet but some figures are claiming less foot traffic in stores compared with previous years. So i'd say to early to really call if spending was down(compared with expectations)
- Jupe4 hours ago
 A few observations:1. I saw the same headline - the article stated that there were record SEASON sales, not Black Friday sales. The headline did not match the content of the article. 2. Record revenue, not necessarily record units sold. To be expected with inflation. 3. Savvy online shoppers may be bundling purchases to reduce shipping costs. Waiting for a seasonal sale to buy holiday gifts as well as detergent, snacks and underwear may be quite prudent.Finally, increased sales revenue does not necessarily equate to more jobs. It can, but by no means does it have to.
- jameslk32 minutes ago
 K-shaped economy is the buzz word these days
 - cal_dent12 minutes ago
 i remember when it was the buzzword in q3 2020 too....
- eru4 hours ago
 > Ftfa (the part I could read) [...]<a href="https://archive.is/NvSXc" rel="nofollow">https://archive.is/NvSXc</a>
- untwerp2 hours ago
 <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lipstick_effect" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lipstick_effect</a>
- vannevar3 hours ago
 Not necessarily. Average income can be up substantially at the same time that median income remains flat or even declines. This means that it is possible for spending by wealthier Americans to make up for sales lost from the unemployed middle class and poor.
- csomar3 hours ago
 The volume is down. What actually increased is the $$ value.
- listenallyall4 hours ago
 Black Friday has become Cyber Monday as well. Everyone has a phone, nobody is waiting to log on to their PC at work to do some online shopping.The holiday season on the whole is a much better indicator, not just one single day. And even then, spending needs to be checked against debt incurred.
 - garciasn4 hours ago
 Black Friday started weeks before the actual day in order to increase the spending. It’s not an apples to apples comparison to prior years.
 - listenallyall4 hours ago
 As a marketing term yes but the Bloomberg analysis is only looking at the actual single day following Thanksgiving.
- philamonster4 hours ago
 I didn't buy shit on purpose this weekend, like every year and like most weekends. Some people do that. I wish more would.
- jinushaun5 hours ago
 Don’t underestimate credit cards and consumerism.
- Iwan-Zotow4 hours ago
 Pop growth of ca .5 pct and inflation delivered said record
- alfalfasprout5 hours ago
 Not necessarily. Lots of explanations:(1) People wait for when they perceive they'll get the best deals to do their shopping. (2) K-shaped economy (data is already bearing this out btw): Spending from the wealthy is driving consumption figures vs. the bulk of the population (3) Anxiety about rising prices cause people to purchase now vs. later. See for example RAM prices.
- bitwize5 hours ago
 One of the truly great things about American toxic individualism is that it need not be constrained by rationality; American capitalism finds ways around that. Need to Christmas shop for everyone in your family but don't have enough actual income? Simply go into massive credit card debt! You're probably pre-approved for several cards already; check for our flyer!
OgsyedIE5 hours ago
<a href="https://archive.is/NvSXc" rel="nofollow">https://archive.is/NvSXc</a>.Also, shocking to see no mention of the investment thesis, let alone critique of it.
- AnimalMuppet4 hours ago
 Thanks for the link.What do you mean by the "investment thesis"? Would you clarify?
 - OgsyedIE4 hours ago
 The investment thesis in AI is that the decline in consumer spending in the other sectors of the economy won't matter when the consumers cease to be a significant participant in the economy in the near term: that moving investment away from the activity in agriculture, transportation, goods and services, etc., is rational because those sectors are soon to be obsolete when their customers buying power and long term capacity to produce buying power is sucked away.Think of the promise of AGI as a promise of billions of tireless immigrants with PhDs who outcompete the other ethnicities in the labor market. It's the same reason people stopped investing in Detroit-based things years ahead of the industry pullout.
 - bequanna4 hours ago
 I’m not sure I follow. So, are you saying that wealth will become completely concentrated at the top and the rest of us are obsolete, out of work and broke?That seems unlikely. What is the point of an economy if there is no one who is actually able to consume?
 - OgsyedIE3 hours ago
 There will not be no one who is able to consume. The investment thesis is that the investment classes' servant robot armies will be doing trillions of USD of consumption, mostly in metals, munitions, chips, etc.I don't agree with the thesis, but that is what the thesis is.
 - int_19h41 minutes ago
 The ones who own the robots will be doing the consumption.Of course, this all implies that the rest of us will just sit and starve quietly. Somehow I don't think that's likely.
 - cal_dent3 hours ago
 more importantly, good luck to any country that has to deal with an environment full of huge swathes of people festering with the anger and nihilism that comes from going from something to nothing...not for me
- juujian4 hours ago
 Investment thesis?
arnonejoe4 hours ago
It seems we are nearing the bottom of the business cycle. I lived through 2001 and 2008. Both were worse than now. It will get better.
- bequanna4 hours ago
 How do we know this is the bottom?
 - arnonejoe4 hours ago
 You don’t know until unemployment and GDP numbers are released. Generally when the fed starts making successive rate cuts, the economy is doing poorly. Since 1953 10 out of 11 recessions happened when republicans held power. So maybe that is also why I think we have a little way to go before things get better. I’m not sure why that is and I don’t want to start a political debate. Things will get better. They always do.
 - forgotoldacc3 hours ago
 Things do tend to get better, but the time scale can vary. It's hard to tell whether we're deep into a recession, or we're just starting to walk into a depression. You never really know which it is in the first year.
 - mullingitover3 hours ago
 > Since 1953 10 out of 11 recessions happened when republicans held powerI used to think this was because the party that represents the ruling class didn't know what they were doing.Now I think these economic collapses and ensuing fire sales are not accidents, they know exactly what they're doing.
 - lesuorac2 hours ago
 Recession are a natural part of the business cycle though. Like it's good to have them, Democrats not allowing a recession to occur just makes the next bubble even bigger. And all kinds of inefficient businesses are allow to zombify when the resources could be used elsewhere.Now, the bigger problem is that you're supposed to raise taxes during the boom so that you can run deficits during the recession to recover quickly. Unfortunately we run deficits during the boom so that the crash is even bigger as well ...
 - VinLucero1 hour ago
 Have you ever read Yonatan’s article on Shock Wealth and how the ruling class is incentivized to cause shocks?<a href="https://medium.com/newco/your-financial-shock-wealth-4845e6dc1d2f" rel="nofollow">https://medium.com/newco/your-financial-shock-wealth-4845e6d...</a>
 - XorNot3 hours ago
 Yes if only the US still released those numbers...
 - chii3 hours ago
 Until the bottom has passed, you can't know.
 - zerosizedweasle3 hours ago
 When AI finally crashes, the cycle will reset
jswelker3 hours ago
The author must have written the headline as a legitimate question to the audience because they certainly did not make much effort to answer it in the article.
- Esophagus42 hours ago
 Betteridge’s law!> Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no.
DANmode2 hours ago
I hope so – how else am I going to find a great cofounder?!Mostly kidding.
- mekael21 minutes ago
 -Slides up to the bar-Tell me more…
Avicebron2 hours ago
There is still half an hour until the tank, plenty of time to sell..
nextworddev4 hours ago
It’s interesting bc I still see mid level (7 yoe) developers getting jobs with no issues. Lots of dispersion of difficulty depending on speciality as well
- joshdavham3 hours ago
  In which part of the world are you seeing this? In the bay area?
  - nextworddev3 hours ago
    SF and NY
- juujian4 hours ago
  Could it be regional?
khannn4 hours ago
The Economist peddling doom n gloom IN THIS ECONOMY?
zerosizedweasle3 hours ago
This market is sick. =(
Finnucane3 hours ago
"We seem to have no clue, but we can get an article out of it anyway"--the Economist.
PatMunch35512 hours ago
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mertleee5 hours ago
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ch20263 hours ago
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glimshe5 hours ago
No.Source: Betteridge's law of headlines
- Waterluvian4 hours ago
 Bettridge’s Law of Bettridge’s Law: there will always be someone in the comments section mentioning Bettridge’s Law.